week ending Mar 8

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$54 Billion in February, -$2.21 Trillion from Peak, to $6.76 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020 --By Wolf Richter --Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet declined by $54 billion in February, to $6.76 trillion, the lowest since May 2020, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today.Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $2.21 trillion, or 25% of its assets. And it has shed 46% of the $4.81 trillion it piled on the balance sheet during pandemic QE from March 2020 through April 2022. Treasury securities: -$24.3 billion in February, -$1.53 trillion from peak in June 2022, or -27% since the peak, to $4.24 trillion, the lowest since July 2020.The Fed has shed 47% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasuries it piled on the balance sheet during pandemic QE.Treasury notes (2- to 10-year) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. Since June 2024, the roll-off has been capped at $25 billion per month. About that much has been rolling off, minus the amount of inflation protection the Fed earns on its Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) that is added to the principal of the TIPS. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$14.2 billion in February, -$537 billion from the peak, to $2.20 trillion, first seen in March 2021.The Fed has shed 19.6% of its MBS since the peak in April 2022, and 38% of the MBS it had piled on the balance sheet during Pandemic-QE.MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. But as sales of existing homes have plunged and mortgage refinancing has collapsed, far fewer mortgages got paid off, and passthrough principal payments to MBS holders, such as the Fed, have become a trickle. As a result, MBS have come off the Fed’s balance sheet at a pace that has been mostly in the range of $14-17 billion a month.The Fed is not exposed to credit losses if borrowers default on mortgages because it holds only “agency” MBS that are guaranteed by the government, where the taxpayer would eat those losses, not the Fed.The Fed has five bank liquidity facilities. Four of them have either no balance at all anymore or a balance that is so small by the Fed’s scale that’s essentially zero. All of them were heavily used after the SVB collapse, and two of them – the FDIC facility and the BTFP – were specifically set up to deal with the SVB fallout but are now shut down.

• Central Bank Liquidity Swaps ($133 million)
• Repos ($84 as of the close of the balance sheet on Wednesday evening, today at $0)
• Loans to the FDIC ($0).
• Bank Term Funding Program BTFP ($79 million in remaining loans to be repaid by March 11).
• Discount Window: unchanged in February at $3.1 billion. Qualifies as “near zero” as during the SVB panic, it had spiked to $153 billion.

The balance sheet declined in total by $54 billion in February. Above, we accounted for $38.7 billion, And another $16 billion came off the balance sheet in February largely in these two accounts:“Other assets” fell by $14 billion. This consisted mostly of accrued interest on its bond holdings that the Fed had set up as a receivable (an asset), and that it got paid in February, which reduced the receivable. When it gets paid interest, the Fed destroys that money (the Fed doesn’t have a “cash” account, like companies do; it creates money when it pays for something and destroys money when it gets paid). By destroying the cash, the Fed reduces its assets.Conversely, when it accrues the interest it earned before it receives it, it increases its assets. So the balance moves up and down on a weekly basis in a range currently between $28 billion and $47 billion. Since this account also includes “bank premises” and other accounts receivables, it will always have a balance.“Unamortized premiums”: $2.1 billion. This is the regular amount the Fed writes off every month to account for the premium over face value it had to pay for bonds during QE that had been issued with higher coupon interest rates earlier and that had gained value as yields dropped before the Fed bought them. Like all institutional bondholders, the Fed amortizes that premium over the life of the bond. The remaining balance of unamortized premiums is now down to $245 billion, from $356 billion at the peak in November 2021:

Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty" --From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook - Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal. At the Federal Reserve, we are intently focused on the dual-mandate goals given to us by Congress: maximum employment and stable prices. The economy has been growing at a solid pace. GDP expanded at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, extending a period of consistent growth that has been supported by resilient consumer spending. Recent indicators point to a possible moderation in consumer spending relative to the rapid growth rate over the second half of 2024. Further, recent surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment. Sentiment readings have not been a good predictor of consumption growth in recent years. We continue to carefully monitor a variety of indicators of household and business spending.Many indicators show that the labor market is solid and broadly in balance. The jobs report released this morning showed employers added 151,000 jobs to payrolls in February and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent last month. Smoothing over the month-to-month volatility, since September, employers have added a solid 191,000 jobs a month on average. The unemployment rate remains low and has held in a narrow range between 3.9 and 4.2 percent for the past year. The jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, and the quits rate has moved below pre-pandemic levels. Wages are growing faster than inflation, and at a more sustainable pace than earlier in the pandemic recovery. With wage growth moderating and labor supply and demand having moved into better balance, the labor market is not a significant source of inflationary pressure.Inflation has come down a long way from its mid-2022 peak above 7 percent without a sharp increase in unemployment—a historically unusual and most welcome outcome. While progress in reducing inflation has been broad based, recent readings remain somewhat above our 2 percent objective. The path to sustainably returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue. We see ongoing progress in categories that remain elevated, such as housing services and the market-based components of non-housing services. Inflation can be volatile month-to-month, and we do not overreact to one or two readings that are higher or lower than anticipated. Data released last week showed that total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in January and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.6 percent. We pay close attention to a broad range of measures of inflation expectations, and some near-term measures have recently moved up. We see this in both market- and survey-based measures, and survey respondents, both consumers and businesses, are mentioning tariffs as a driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain stable and consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.Looking ahead, the new Administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high. As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity. Policy is not on a preset course. If the economy remains strong but inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2 percent, we can maintain policy restraint for longer. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly. Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.Before I conclude, I will note that at our last FOMC meeting, we began our second five-year review of our monetary policy framework. We will consider changes to our consensus statement (Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy) and to our communications as part of this review. The consensus statement articulates our framework for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of the goals assigned to us by Congress. We will consider lessons of the past five years and adapt our approach, where appropriate, to best serve the American people, to whom we are accountable. The 2 percent longer-run inflation goal will be retained and is not a focus of the review.This public review will be familiar to those who followed our process five years ago. We will hold outreach events around the country involving a wide range of parties, including Fed Listens events. We are open to new ideas and critical feedback. We will host a research conference in Washington in May. Our intent is to wrap up the review by late summer.

Powell says tariffs could feed inflation, Fed must wait to determine the impact (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it remains to be seen if the Trump administration's tariff plans will prove to be inflationary, mapping out a checklist of things that could cause new import taxes to lead to more persistent price pressures. "In a simple case where we know it's a one-time thing, the textbook would say look through it," with no need for the Fed to respond with tighter monetary policy, Powell said at a question-and-answer session during an economic forum in New York City. "But you also want to be sure of a couple things," he continued. "If it turns into a series of things ... If the increases are larger, that would matter, and what really does matter is what is happening with longer-term inflation expectations. How persistent are the inflationary effects?" "You want to look at all those things," Powell said at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business forum. "And you want to remember the context, which is we came off a very high inflation and we haven't fully returned to 2% on a sustainable basis. So you put all that into the mix." At the same time, Powell noted, the trade actions Trump took in his first term in the White House, far from being inflationary, caused global growth to slow and actually led the Fed to cut interest rates. Powell spoke after a volatile week in which President Donald Trump imposed and then delayed 25% tariffs on major trading partners Mexico and Canada. Those levies are still slated to go into effect in early April and other tariffs on imports possibly could be coming. Even as Powell was due to speak, Trump mused about moving faster on other tariffs he has promised to enact. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted the tariffs might cause some one-off price increases but would not show up as persistent inflation. He suggested the Fed's "Team Transitory" should "get back together" and look at tariffs in the same way it did at inflation in 2021. Bessent was referring to Powell and other Fed officials who expected that price pressures which began building early in the COVID-19 pandemic would dissipate largely on their own. Instead, inflation kept rising, with the Fed eventually approving the fastest rate hikes in a generation. "Nothing is more transitory than tariffs if it's a one-time price adjustment," Bessent said. "Across the continuum, I'm not worried about inflation." The contrast in views between Powell and Bessent shows the potential at least for conflict between the central bank and the new administration if Trump ultimately follows through on his threats to slap extensive new taxes on the trillions of dollars in goods that U.S. firms and families import each year. The Fed has been open to the possibility that tariffs would shift prices only initially, as they are spread across importers, exporters, retailers and consumers, but not lead to steadily rising prices. Powell also said on Friday that the Fed will need to look at the "net effect" of all of Trump's policies, which Bessent has described as a "whole-of-government, holistic program" that will include regulatory changes the Treasury chief argues will add to growth and lower price pressures. Until more is known, however, Powell said there is no need to rush further rate cuts, with inflation still "somewhat above" the Fed's 2% target and the current high borrowing costs considered appropriate to lower it further. "The new administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes ... uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high," Powell said, opens new tab. "We are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity."

Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While --From housing economist Tom Lawler: Federal Reserve Earnings Still Running Negative; No Remittances to Treasury for a While. The sharp runup in short-term interest rates over the last few years that followed the Federal Reserve’s huge purchases of long-term Treasuries and MBS at extremely low interest rates has resulted in negative earnings at the Federal Reserve since the latter part of 2022. The reason, of course, is that the Federal Reserve “funded” the bulk of these long-term fixed rate assets with increases in interest-bearing very short-term liabilities – mainly depository institution deposits (reserves) and repos --with interest rates tied to the federal funds rate. While the Fed has more interest earning assets than interest-bearing liabilities – with the “gap” mainly reflecting Federal Reserve Notes outstanding (currency) and Treasury general account deposits – the sharp increase the federal funds rate resulted in interest expense surging relative to the interest income on the Fed’s long duration assets.Below is a table showing Federal Reserve net income – the vast bulk of which reflects net interest income – from 2008 to 2024 (2024 is my estimate), as well as Fed remittances to the Treasury as shown in the Fed’s financials (more on this later). As the table shows, Federal Reserve net income was substantially negative in 2023 and 2024, with a combined net loss in these two years of almost $200 billion.At first glance one might think that this table suggests the Treasury remitted almost $200 billion to the Federal Reserve over the last two years. That is not, however, the case. If the Federal Reserve books a net loss, then it “books” a negative remittance to the Treasury but it also “books” an increase in its “deferred asset – remittance to Treasury.” This deferred asset reflects the fact that the Treasury does not in fact remit any funds to the Fed when the Fed books a loss. Rather, the deferred asset balance reflects the amount of positive net income the Fed would earn in the future without remitting any funds to the Treasury. For example, if this deferred asset balance were $200 billion and over the next four years the Fed’s net income totaled $200 billion, then the Fed would not remit any funds to the Treasury over those four years.Weekly data on this deferred asset balance is from the Fed’s H4.1 release, and is available in the FRED database. Here is a chart from 9/7/22 to 2/26/25.As of 2/26/2025, the Fed’s “deferred asset-remittance to Treasury was -$223.98 billion. Note that (1) this balance has continued to grow in the first 8 weeks of this year, suggesting that Fed net income was still negative over this period; and (2) the growth in the negative balance has slowed, suggesting that net losses are shrinking. This of course is not surprising, as the funds rate is 100 basis points lower now than prior to mid-September of last year.Trying to predict Fed net income over the next year of two depends very heavily on projections of the federal funds rate, and depends somewhat on the pace of balance sheet reduction and the Fed’s reinvestment strategy. However, it is highly likely that the Fed will not be remitting any funds to Treasury anytime soon.

Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly" --Fed's Beige Book: Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed with increased price sensitivity for discretionary items, particularly among lower-income shoppers. Unusual weather conditions in some regions over recent weeks weakened demand for leisure and hospitality services. Vehicle sales were modestly lower on balance. Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of Districts. Contacts in manufacturing, ranging from petrochemical products to office equipment, expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes. Banking activity was slightly higher on balance among Districts that reported on it. Residential real estate markets were mixed, and reports pointed to ongoing inventory constraints. Construction activity declined modestly for both residential and nonresidential units. Some contacts in the sector also expressed nervousness around the impact of potential tariffs on the price of lumber and other materials. Agricultural conditions deteriorated some among reporting Districts. Overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic.Employment nudged slightly higher on balance, with four Districts reporting a slight increase, seven reporting no change, and one reporting a slight decline. Multiple Districts cited job growth in health care and finance, while employment declines were reported in manufacturing and information technology. Labor availability improved for many sectors and Districts, though there were occasional reports of a tight labor market in targeted sectors or occupations. Contacts in multiple Districts said rising uncertainty over immigration and other matters was influencing current and future labor demand. Wages grew at a modest-to-moderate pace, which was slightly slower than the previous report, with several Districts noting that wage pressures were easing.Prices increased moderately in most Districts, but several Districts reported an uptick in the pace of increase relative to the previous reporting period. Input price pressures were generally greater than sales price pressures, particularly in manufacturing and construction. Many Districts noted that higher prices for eggs and other food ingredients were impacting food processors and restaurants. Reports of substantial increases in insurance and freight transportation costs were also widespread. Firms in multiple Districts noted difficulty passing input costs on to customers. However, contacts in most Districts expected potential tariffs on inputs would lead them to raise prices, with isolated reports of firms raising prices preemptively....

Beige Book: Economic Activity, Employment And Prices Rose Since January, Economic Expectations Are "Optimistic" -Two months after the December Beige Book (published in January) reported that in the last month of Biden's presidency, "economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December", moments ago - and with everyone expecting fire and brimstone and perhaps a confirmation that the US is now neck deep in a recession if not depression (at least based on how the 10Y and USD are trading) - the latest Fed Beige Book found that in February, or one month into Trump's 3rd 2nd presidency, economic activity actually "rose slightly since mid-January."Reading the latest Fed report we find that six districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. Here are the specific details:

• Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed with increased price sensitivity for discretionary items, particularly among lower-income shoppers.
• Unusual weather conditions in some regions over recent weeks weakened demand for leisure and hospitality services.
• Vehicle sales were modestly lower on balance.
• Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of Districts.
• Contacts in manufacturing, ranging from petrochemical products to office equipment, expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes.
• Banking activity was slightly higher on balance among Districts that reported on it.
• Residential real estate markets were mixed, and reports pointed to ongoing inventory constraints.
• Construction activity declined modestly for both residential and nonresidential units.
• Some contacts in the sector also expressed nervousness around the impact of potential tariffs on the price of lumber and other materials.
• Agricultural conditions deteriorated some among reporting Districts.

Yet despite this mixed picture, overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic.Taking a closer at the labor market, the Beige Book found that employment nudged slightly higher on balance, with four Districts reporting a slight increase, seven reporting no change, and one reporting a slight decline.

• Multiple Districts cited job growth in health care and finance, while employment declines were reported in manufacturing and information technology.
• Labor availability improved for many sectors and Districts, though there were occasional reports of a tight labor market in targeted sectors or occupations.
• Contacts in multiple Districts said rising uncertainty over immigration and other matters was influencing current and future labor demand.
• Wages grew at a modest-to-moderate pace, which was slightly slower than the previous report, with several Districts noting that wage pressures were easing.

Turning to inflation, not surprisingly (to anyone who shops) prices increased moderately in most Districts, but several Districts reported an uptick in the pace of increase relative to the previous reporting period.

• Input price pressures were generally greater than sales price pressures, particularly in manufacturing and construction.
• Many Districts noted that higher prices for eggs and other food ingredients were impacting food processors and restaurants.
• Reports of substantial increases in insurance and freight transportation costs were also widespread. Firms in multiple Districts noted difficulty passing input costs on to customers.
• However, contacts in most Districts expected potential tariffs on inputs would lead them to raise prices, with isolated reports of firms raising prices preemptively.

Here is a snapshot of highlights by Fed District:

• Boston: Economic activity increased slowly, boosted by a surge in home sales. Prices increased modestly on average, but contacts perceived that upward pressure on prices could emerge in response to tariffs. Employment declined slightly, and wages increased modestly. Expectations were mostly optimistic but marked by growing uncertainty.
• New York: Regional economic activity was little changed in early 2025. Employment grew slightly and wage growth was moderate, with labor supply and labor demand coming back into balance. Selling price increases picked up to a moderate pace after some slowing last period. Many businesses noted heightened economic uncertainty and expressed concern about tariffs.
• Philadelphia: Business activity declined slightly during the current Beige Book period after a slight increase last period. Employment continued to grow slightly; wages and prices grew modestly. Contacts noted that changes in fiscal and trade policies pose a risk of higher inflation. Generally, sentiment fell, but firms remain optimistic about future growth amid economic uncertainty.
• Cleveland: District business activity was flat in recent weeks, although contacts expected activity to increase in the months ahead. Consumer spending was down, and some contacts noted declining consumer confidence. Employment levels remained flat. Contact reports suggest that nonlabor input costs edged up, while reported price increases continued to be modest.
• Richmond: The regional economy grew modestly in recent weeks. Consumer spending increased modestly, down from the moderate rate previously reported. Nonfinancial services firms also reported modest growth while manufacturing activity was unchanged. Price growth remained moderate, but firms across sectors expressed concerns about overall uncertainty in the economy and about tariffs potentially leading to future price increases.
• Atlanta: The economy of the Sixth District expanded at a modest pace. Employment was steady. Wages, input costs, and prices increased modestly. Retail sales fell slightly. Travel and tourism were steady. Home sales declined somewhat. Transportation activity grew modestly. Loan growth was moderate. Manufacturing expanded slightly. Energy demand increased modestly.
• Chicago: Economic activity was little changed. Employment was up slightly; consumer and business spending were flat; nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and construction and real estate and manufacturing activity decreased slightly. Prices increased modestly; wages rose moderately; and financial conditions were unchanged. Farm income in 2025 was expected to be similar to 2024.
• St. Louis: Economic activity and employment have been flat. Prices continued to increase moderately but were above expectations. Contacts noted that they were holding off investment due to policy uncertainty and indicated that tariffs would result in higher prices. The outlook has declined from slightly optimistic in our previous report to neutral.
• Minneapolis: Economic activity was steady. Employment grew but labor demand and hiring softened. Wage and price increases were moderate. Consumer spending was flat with improvements in travel and tourism. Manufacturing experienced modest improvements. Construction of nonresidential units slowed but accelerated modestly for residential units. Commercial real estate was mostly unchanged, and home sales improved. Agricultural conditions were flat.
• Kansas City: Economic activity was unchanged on balance, but consumer spending decreased moderately. Prices rose at a moderate pace. While higher prices deterred spending, business contacts indicated they were more likely to scale back rather than take a hit on margins by softening pricing. Employment levels remained steady, though contacts noted a rise in labor force churn.
• Dallas: The Eleventh District economy continued to expand moderately. Nonfinancial services activity grew while retail sales were flat, and manufacturing activity was rather volatile. Lending picked up notably and commercial real estate activity improved, though housing demand was tepid. Employment held steady, and little change was seen in wage and price growth. Contacts noted sharply higher uncertainty around the outlook.
• San Francisco: Economic activity ticked down. Employment levels were stable. Price levels and wages grew slightly. Retail sales fell modestly and demand for services weakened a bit. Manufacturing activity improved somewhat, while conditions in agriculture and residential real estate softened. Commercial real estate and lending activity were steady.

Confirming that contraray to conventional wisdom the economic picture improved notably since January, the latest February Beige Book saw just 2 mentions of recessions, down sharply from 6 two months prior. But more notably, while mentions of "slow" extended their decline to 35 from 38, mentions of inflation rose to a two year high of 15, up from 11 last month...

GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed - Menzie Chinn - Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP? I adjusted the GDPNow growth rates for Q1: Figure 1: GDPNow nowcasts for 2025Q1 (red), Alternative GDPNow holding import effect of 2/28 to none (blue), both in q/q AR, %. Source: Atlanta Fed and author’s calculations.While the implied growth rate for Q1 is positive (0.45% q/q AR), it’s barely so. Figure 2: GDP as reported 2nd release (bold black), February median SPF (light blue line), NY Fed (2/28) (blue square), GS (3/3) (green inverted triangle), GDPNow (3/3) (red triangle), and GDPNow adjusted to omit import effect of 2/28 (pink square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2nd release, NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.

A Comment on GDPNow –McBride - On Friday, I noted: Q1 GDP Tracking: Wide Range, GDPNow Goes Negative. GDPNow from the Atlanta Fed went strongly negative in the most recent reading: "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.5 percent on February 28". GDPNow is an excellent tracking model, however, the January surge in imports - especially for gold - caused the model to move negative. As the Atlanta Fed noted: "the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points". Usually there would be an offsetting increase in inventories, but that is a lagging indicator. This is a short-term distortion and will balance out over the next month or so. I don't expect negative GDP in Q1.

The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts | The Hill The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts -- (AP) — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that government spending could be separated from gross domestic product reports, in response to questions about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency could possibly cause an economic downturn. “You know that governments historically have messed with GDP,” Lutnick said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “They count government spending as part of GDP. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.” Doing so could potentially complicate or distort a fundamental measure of the U.S. economy’s health. Government spending is traditionally included in the GDP because changes in taxes, spending, deficits and regulations by the government can impact the path of overall growth. GDP reports already include extensive details on government spending, offering a level of transparency for economists. Musk’s efforts to downsize federal agencies could result in the layoffs of tens of thousands of federal workers, whose lost income could potentially reduce their spending, affecting businesses and the economy at large. The commerce secretary’s remarks echoed Musk’s arguments made Friday on X that government spending doesn’t create value for the economy. “A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending,” Musk wrote on his social media platform. “Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don’t make people’s lives better.” Senate Democrat says White House is 'arm of Kremlin' The argument as articulated so far by Trump administration officials appears to play down the economic benefits created by some forms of government spending that can shape an economy’s trajectory. “If the government buys a tank, that’s GDP,” Lutnick said Sunday. “But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we’re going to get rid of that.” The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis published its most recent GDP report on Thursday, showing that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the final three months of last year. The report makes it possible to measure the forces driving the economy, showing that the gains at the end of last year were largely driven by greater consumer spending and an upward revision to federal government spending related to defense. Still, the federal government’s component of the GDP report for all of 2024 increased at 2.6%, slightly lower than overall economic growth last year of 2.8%.

Whisper it and it’s back: Recession risk creeps onto markets’ radar (Reuters) - Global growth concerns have shot back onto the radar of financial markets as weakening U.S. economic data and growing trade tensions hurt consumer confidence and business activity.Although recession is not the base-case scenario for economists, given underlying U.S. resilience, recent data has unnerved investors and U.S. President Donald Trump's new 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are exacerbating growth concerns.A shift in the mood music is apparent across markets.Oil prices are at their lowest since October , stocks from New York to Tokyo are retreating from recent multi-year highs and two-year U.S. Treasury yields are at their lowest since October as bond investors see increased chances of near-term rate cuts. "One thing is essential for an economy and that's confidence, which has taken a hit," said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Genvil Wealth Management, referring to weakening U.S. consumer and business sentiment."I don't think it's (recession) a done deal but it's a reason why we have decided to decrease (U.S.) equity exposure."U.S. consumer confidence in January slumped the most in 3-1/2 years, retail sales dropped by the most in nearly two years, and Monday's U.S. manufacturing activity data showed big falls in new orders and employment."We don’t think we will see a (U.S.) recession but we do see a modest growth slowdown," said Joost van Leender, senior investment strategist, at Van Lanschot Kempen Investment Management in Amsterdam, adding consumers were feeling uncertain about "chaotic" U.S. policy.Van Leender said he had trimmed U.S. equity holdings in late January and is overweight Treasuries as yields are likely to fall as the economy decelerates.Highlighting the change in fortunes, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for annualised growth this quarter on Monday fell to -2.8% from +2.3% a week ago.Analysts stress that recent U.S. data is likely to have been skewed by one-off factors such as cold weather, and strong imports in the case of the Atlanta Fed's model. But they also note that a trade war means focus is quickly shifting from inflation to the growth risks from U.S. tariffs. China has responded to a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20% with additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain U.S. imports from March 10. Europe is also in the firing line for higher U.S. tariffs, and trade-vulnerable auto stocks dropped 4% on Tuesday after the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, where many cars for the U.S. market are made. Morgan Stanley estimates that the new U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada could shave 0.7-1.1 percentage points off U.S. economic growth in coming quarters, deliver a 2.2 to 2.8 percentage point hit to Canadian growth, and push Mexico into recession.Canadian Chamber of Commerce CEO Candace Laing warned that U.S. tariff policy was forcing Canada and the U.S. toward "recessions, job losses and economic disaster".The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso briefly hit one-month lows on Tuesday. Notably, the dollar, which has generally benefited from trade tensions, has also weakened as U.S. growth worries weigh . Some reckon the U.S. economy could be at risk from a worrying mix of sluggish growth and relentless inflation. Analysts said a trade war keeps pressure on central banks globally to keep cutting rates to shore up growth. Traders are now pricing in 75 basis points of U.S. rate cuts by year-end versus just one cut in mid-January when data was strong. After ending February with their biggest monthly drop since late 2023, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are eyeing 4% ."The bond market is moving towards pricing a soft patch and maybe a recession," said Forvis Mazars chief economist George Lagarias.The European Central Bank is tipped to cut rates again on Thursday and Morgan Stanley said it expects another cut in April as economic data and inflation weaken.

Jeffries accuses Republicans of walking away from government funding talks --H4ouse Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) late Sunday accused Republicans of walking away from government funding talks ahead of a looming shutdown deadline.“The top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, Rosa De Lauro, remains ready, willing and able to talk with our Republican colleagues, but there has been zero outreach from the Trump administration and House Republicans have walked away from the negotiating table,” Jeffries said in a statement.Lawmakers face a March 14 deadline to fund the government, but efforts have so far been unsuccessful as Democrats and Republicans argue over who is to blame. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he wants to pass a clean continuing resolution to fund the government through September, an idea that was endorsed by President Trump.Johnson said earlier Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Democrats “to this point shown no interest in finding a reasonable solution for that.” “Democrats have to help negotiate this,” Johnson added.However, Jeffries accused the GOP of being unwilling to work with Democrats, who may have the power to shut down the government in protest if they are joined by at least four conservative budget hawks.

Republicans dig in heels against restricting Trump powers in shutdown talks - Top Republicans are digging in their heels against restricting President Trump’s powers in funding negotiations with Democrats, as both sides struggle to strike a deal to avert a government shutdown next month. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters Wednesday that “substantial differences” remain between both parties with Congress staring down a March 14 deadline to pass legislation to keep the government running. “Not so much on numbers, but over the presidential power issue with the Democrats, differences between the House and Senate,” Cole explained. Democrats have pressed for assurances that a bipartisan funding deal that emerges from talks won’t be undercut by Trump amid his Department of Government Efficiency’s sweeping operation to reshape the federal government. Cole made the comments just moments after leaving a huddle with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine). Following the meeting, Johnson also took aim at Democrats, accusing his colleagues across the aisle of making “completely unreasonable conditions” in funding talks. “They want us to limit the power of the executive branch,” he argued. “They want us to stipulate in the appropriations vote for the first time in history that certain agencies in the executive branch would have to have a specific number of employees.” “All sorts of just unreasonable, what I think are unconstitutional, demands,” he said. “There’ll be a violation of separation of powers. So we’re pretty far apart right now, but it is not because they’re Republicans. It’s because of the Democrats.”

Senate negotiators look at dueling CR options to avert government shutdown - Top appropriators are still in search of a deal to fund the government with 10 days until a shutdown deadline, as talk in the Senate turn to two possibilities for stopgap spending bills. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) on Monday told reporters that negotiators are working on dual tracks: either a full-year continuing resolution (CR) lasting through the end of September or a monthlong measure to give appropriators more time to hammer out a yearlong overall deal. The remarks come after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said over the weekend that he was planning on the first option, which has also won the support of President Trump. This, however, has led to increased grumbling from Senate Democrats who are displeased with the possibility and are accusing Republicans of shutting them out of talks as the clock ticks to the March 14 deadline. “That is a surrender,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said. “To walk away from the possibility of a bipartisan discussion giving us the appropriations bills is surrendering the opportunity is there.” Durbin added that there need to be “some developments” for a shutdown to be avoided. Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Appropriations panel, also threw her weight behind a short-term measure to give members more time to hammer out a deal. S “We are looking at a number of different things,” she told reporters at a press conference, pointing specifically to a short-term item. “The only one who wants a shutdown right now is Elon Musk. He’s tweeted he wants one. Nobody else wants a shutdown. We are all working to get this done.” That possibility would also give defense hawks a shot in the arm as they have long been critical of funding the government through repeated continuing resolutions, which they view as harmful to the military and defense capabilities. To some top Republicans, the entire goal is simply to avoid a costly shutdown as the party looks ahead to its push to pass Trump’s ambitious tax agenda via budget reconciliation in the coming months. “Had [Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] not refused to bring appropriations bills to the floor last year, we wouldn’t be in this situation,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told The Hill. “My goal is to keep the government open, and that’s the Republican goal as well.” Across the Capitol, top House Republicans are hoping to release text for the pending CR this weekend in order to comply with the chamber’s 72-hour rule to allow members adequate time to review the text. House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said the bill would not include any cuts proposed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), with some of those being eyed for 2026 spending proposals instead. He also noted that the Democratic push to include language that would assure them that the Trump administration will fully use the funding included in any new spending bill is a no-go. “Democrat leadership remains laser focused on restricting presidential authority. It’s a non-starter and battle they lost to the American people,” Cole said in a statement. No matter how Republican leaders slice it, they will need Democratic votes in both chambers to fund the government. In the House, where the GOP maintains a one-vote edge, multiple Republicans, including some moderates, have already indicated they will not vote for a full-year measure. And Democratic votes would be needed to overcome the Senate filibuster. For now, negotiators are still trying to find their way out of the funding maze they remain stuck in, with Johnson seemingly set to move ahead on the full-year push.

Read: House budget resolution -House Republicans on Wednesday released their budget resolution in an effort to advance President Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda.Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), the chair of the House Budget Committee, told House Republicans on Tuesday that his committee would take action on the legislation on Thursday.The resolution unlocks the process Republicans hope to use to pass Trump’s agenda with only Republican votes and provides a blueprint for the final measure.Near unanimity will be required for Republicans to send the final bill to Trump’s desk since the slim majorities are attempting to do it through a special reconciliation process that bypasses the threat of a Democratic filibuster in the Senate.Read the resolution below:

GOP plows forward with government funding plan despite Democratic opposition -House Republicans are pressing on with plans for a clean six-month stopgap to keep the government funded beyond next week’s shutdown deadline in the face of staunch resistance from Democrats. House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters on Wednesday that Republicans are “running the full-year CR, period,” next week, referring to the party’s plan to pass a stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), through late September. “We’re not going to live through CRs every two weeks and all that kind of stuff,” he said. “So, the Speaker is very insistent that we go all the way to September. I agree with that decision.” Negotiators on both sides had previously been hopeful of striking a bipartisan deal on overall government spending for fiscal 2025, which began in October. But both parties have struggled to reach an overall funding agreement amid a fierce debate over the president’s authority to withhold dollars already allocated by Congress and lay off thousands of federal workers as part of a sweeping operation to reshape the government. Cole said on Wednesday that a bipartisan deal is still “better than a CR,” leaving the door open to both sides continuing efforts to craft a bipartisan government funding deal for the remainder of the current fiscal year. “You don’t have to do every single bill. I want to do all 12. I’m going to be crystal clear about that, but we can’t have a situation where [a] government shutdown is threatened every two weeks. We have other things to do,” he said, adding that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has also told appropriators to “keep negotiating.” Trump announces 1-month delay on Canada, Mexico tariffs for cars Cole and Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) huddled on Wednesday with the top Democrats on their respective funding committees, Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.) and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), to discuss a potential path forward on fiscal 2025 funding. Democrats have been pushing for a short-term stopgap funding plan to buy more time for bipartisan funding talks, while raising alarm about the impact of government programs continuing to run on levels that were last hashed out about a year ago. They also want any CR to include assurances that the administration will spend the money as directed, which is a nonstarter for Republicans.DeLauro said after the meeting that a bipartisan deal on a top-line number for fiscal 2025 spending is “imminent” and that negotiators are “ironing” out last-minute details. “The first thing to do, in my view, is to make sure that there isn’t a full-year CR, and I’m not sure the other side has the votes, but that’s up to them,” DeLauro told reporters.While government programs have been running on stopgaps since last October, Democratic negotiators raised a list of concerns over the potential consequences that a CR through the end of the fiscal year could pose to defense programs and military effectiveness, health care costs, pay reforms for wildland firefighters, veterans services and food assistance programs. Democrats have also argued that a full-year stopgap would give the Trump administration more flexibility on funding beyond what Congress intended in spending legislation. Republicans are expected to unveil their funding plan by the end of the week, with hopes of the House teeing up a vote on the legislation as early as next Wednesday. DeLauro told reporters that she expected Democrats to overwhelmingly oppose the plan if it comes up for a vote, underlining the potential challenges GOP leadership could face in locking down sufficient Republican support for the stopgap proposal with a razor-thin margin. Asked about potential add-ons that could be included in the stopgap, Cole told reporters that “the only anomalies we’re doing are basically anomalies from the administration, like in defense in particular, but others too.” “We’re staying with basically a clean CR, the anomalies, giving the administration the ability to deal with issues like defense and like WIC and things like that.” But some Republicans are also pressing for offsets for any potential add-ons, including in areas like defense.

Republicans need to cut Medicaid to hit budget savings target, CBO finds - Republicans can’t achieve their goal of slashing $2 trillion in federal spending over the next decade without cutting Medicaid, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). In a report released Wednesday, CBO found that the government spends $381 billion on programs other than Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) that are under the jurisdiction of the Energy and Commerce Committee. That’s a problem for House Republicans, who are looking to slash $880 billion from programs in the committee’s jurisdiction to help pay for an extension of President Trump’s tax cuts and border enforcement funding. One of the prime targets is Medicaid, the joint federal and state-funded program that provides health coverage to more than 72 million low-income Americans. Republicans see Medicaid as a program rife with fraud and abuse and have long sought to rein in its spending. CBO said that of the $381 billion, more than half is already paid for. So even if Republicans eliminate every program under Energy and Commerce other than Medicaid and CHIP, it would only be able to save a maximum of $135 billion. Republicans in the House advanced a budget resolution nearly on party lines last week calling for at least $2 trillion in spending cuts, kicking off the reconciliation process that will allow the Senate to bypass the filibuster and pass a bill with only 51 votes. Under the resolution, the Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, has been tasked with identifying at least $880 billion in cuts.

Democrats use Trump address to spotlight Medicaid fight -- Democrats used President Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday to ramp up pressure on Republicans over potential Medicaid cuts, homing in on an issue they think will resonate among voters for the next two years leading into the midterm elections. Ahead of the address, Democrats invited Medicaid beneficiaries who rely on the program to attend, many of whom have significant medical expenses. During the speech, Democrats chanted and waved signs that read “SAVE MEDICAID.” Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was escorted from the chamber just minutes into the speech after standing up and heckling the president, shouting out “You have no mandate to cut Medicaid.” “I was making it clear to the president that he has no mandate to cut Medicaid,” Green told reporters afterward. “I have people who are very fearful, these are poor people and they all need Medicaid in their lives when it comes to their health care.” Trump avoided any mention of Medicaid in his Tuesday speech, despite his consistent pledges that he won’t cut the program. “Trump not mentioning Medicaid at the State of the Union is the game. He doesn’t talk about it, what he fears, and he knows it’s dynamite. The House Republicans know that it’s dynamite for them, and that’s why they’re talking about not hosting town halls,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said on Instagram Live following Trump’s speech. Democratic attacks largely hinge on the GOP budget plan — the vehicle Republicans are using to slash trillions of dollars in spending to enact Trump’s agenda, which includes extending his first-term tax cuts. Republicans have not voted to cut Medicaid, but House Republicans advanced a budget resolution nearly on party lines last week calling for at least $2 trillion in spending cuts, kicking off the reconciliation process that will allow the Senate to bypass the filibuster and pass a bill with only 51 votes. Under the resolution, the Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid, has been tasked with identifying at least $880 billion in cuts to programs under its jurisdiction. The Congressional Budget Office issued a report Wednesday finding that those savings are not achievable without cuts to Medicaid. Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Republican leaders argue the savings will come largely from weeding out waste, fraud and abuse while also expanding work requirements for some adults receiving benefits. But analysts and experts say such steep cuts will be nearly impossible to achieve without cutting Medicaid or Medicare benefits. Many Democrats have coalesced around a common warning: Republicans are trying to cut your entitlements to pay for tax cuts for billionaires. “What we are seeing is the Robin Hood principle in reverse — taking from the poor and giving to the rich,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said in a livestreamed response to Trump on Tuesday night. The progressive nonprofit group House Majority Forward launched a national cable ad campaign this week focusing on Medicaid cuts. “They claimed they’d lower costs. Instead, Trump and Speaker Johnson are set to kick millions off of health insurance … all to fund massive tax cuts for Elon Musk and billionaires,” the ad states. The group also started running TV and digital ads in nearly two dozen House districts this week, attacking vulnerable House Republicans who voted for the budget resolution. Moderate Republicans in swing districts, especially those who represent significant populations of Medicaid beneficiaries, have raised concerns about Medicaid cuts. They demanded firm assurances that those constituents would not lose health coverage, before ultimately siding with GOP leadership and voting in favor of the resolution. Republicans’ attempt to cut Medicaid spending as part of an ObamaCare repeal effort during Trump’s first administration failed, and the ensuing controversy contributed to their loss of the majority in the 2018 midterm elections. \

Bill to pay troops during shutdown filed as funding deadline looms --Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) reintroduced a bill Thursday to ensure that members of the military get paid during a government shutdown, a move that comes as a March 14 deadline ticks closer without a deal to extend funding. The Pay Our Troops Act would direct existing unappropriated Treasury Department funds to be made available to pay members of the armed forces as well as civilian employees and defense contractors supporting the military in the event of a shutdown until either a continuing resolution (CR) is passed, regular full-year funding is passed, or until Jan. 1, 2026. “Dysfunction in Washington should never force our servicemembers to go without a paycheck. These men and women put their lives on the line to protect our country – it is our responsibility to ensure they can provide for their families and put food on their tables,” Kiggans, who represents a district with a large military population, said in a statement. House Republicans are crafting a bill to continue funding the government through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. But it is not clear if Democrats will support that bill. At least some Democratic support will be needed to avert a shutdown due to the 60-vote threshold in the Senate. Military pay, though, has consistently been a major motivator to get lawmakers to compromise on averting a shutdown, since no politicians want to be seen as undermining the troops.

Amid disarray following Trump-Zelensky rift, Europe’s leaders prepare for war - The leaders of all the major European powers—including Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain—along with Canada, Turkey’s foreign minister, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—met at Lancaster House in London on Sunday to formulate a united response to US President Donald Trump’s unilateral pursuit of an agreement with Russia over Ukraine. The summit, convened by British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, not only confirmed the historic breakdown of US-European relations, but also underscored the European powers’ response: a commitment to continuing and even escalating the war with Russia, including the deployment of up to 30,000 troops in Ukraine. Starmer announced immediate plans to form a European “coalition of the willing” to enforce a peace deal in Ukraine, involving UK “boots on the ground and planes in the air.” While still seeking US support in the form of an air defense “backstop,” future plans centre on European military rearmament on a scale not seen since the 1930s. Europe’s leaders met in the wake of the explosive White House confrontation between Trump and Zelensky on Friday. Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance publicly berated Zelensky for being “disrespectful” to the United States by asking for “security guarantees” before signing a deal that would grant the US control over the lion’s share of Ukraine’s mineral wealth. Trump sees the war in Ukraine as an expensive failure. He now wants immediate US access to Ukraine’s rare earths and other strategic assets by negotiating a deal with President Vladimir Putin—one that Moscow has made clear would also grant the US access to Russian resources far exceeding those in Ukraine. A defeat in Ukraine would be a major blow to the European powers, as would the US gaining a stranglehold on mineral deposits vital to the continent’s economies. Even more alarming to the European powers is the prospect of a broader US-Russia alliance, which they see as an existential threat. This is the real reason why the UK, France and other countries are now considering deploying troops to Ukraine, risking direct war with Russia—with or without US support. At this stage, Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s fascist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and others insist that nothing will proceed without US approval, and any European proposal will be submitted for Trump’s consideration. However, whatever attempts at a compromise are made and whatever the difficulties posed to London, Paris and Berlin, the direction is toward open conflict with Washington. Trump’s incendiary and sometimes erratic behavior follows a clear political and economic logic. A section of the American ruling class, epitomized by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, views Europe not as an ally but as a direct competitor. This group is willing to consider a political, economic and even military alliance with Russia to counter what they perceive as a greater threat to US strategic interests: the European Union.

Wall Street Journal editorial board attacks Trump on foreign policy -The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board went after President Trump on foreign policy on Sunday, saying it is “less brave new world than a reversion to a dangerous old one.”The board highlighted recent actions such as Trump trying to “wash his hands” of Ukraine and threatening allies in Europe and North America with even higher tariffs than adversaries like China. “All of this would amount to an epochal return to the world of great power competition and balance of power that prevailed before World War II. It’s less a brave new world than a reversion to a dangerous old one,” the board wrote.The board said that the president “says he is making America great again, not retreating from the defense of freedom.”“He says he wants ‘peace,’ but is it peace with honor, or the peace of the grave for Ukraine and accommodation to Chinese domination in the Pacific? And why isn’t he increasing defense spending?” it added.Last Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Vice President Vance and Trump had a heated Oval Office meeting that featured shouting, finger-pointing and the president and the Ukrainian leader arguing over U.S. support for Ukraine.Following the meeting, Trump said on his Truth Social platform that the Ukrainian president “is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations.”“I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace,” Trump added.

Mike Waltz likens Zelensky to an 'ex-girlfriend' after contentious Oval Office meeting -- National security adviser Mike Waltz compared Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to an “ex-girlfriend” who wants to relitigate issues from nearly a decade prior. In an interview on Breitbart Radio on Saturday, Waltz was critical of Zelensky’s approach to the Oval Office meeting and to his subsequent Fox News interview, saying the Ukrainian president is too focused on “fact-checking” the past and not focused enough on moving on in the future. Asked whether Zelensky has improved his standing since the contentious meeting with President Trump, Waltz said, “No, look, he’s clearly solely focused on believing he needs to fact-check and correct every nuance.” “It’s like a, you know, ex-girlfriend that wants to argue everything that you said nine years ago, rather than moving the relationship forward,” he added. Long-simmering tensions between Trump and Zelensky erupted into the open on Friday during a heated Oval Office exchange that is sure to have significant ramifications for the U.S., Russia, Ukraine and all of Europe. The meeting, which began cordially, devolved when Zelensky pressed Vice President Vance for suggesting that a diplomatic solution be reached with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war. Trump: 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect Tuesday Zelensky in turn laid out years of Putin violently taking over Ukrainian territory, going back on previous ceasefires and refusing to exchange prisoners. “What do you mean?” Zelensky asked Vance. “I’m talking about the kind of diplomacy that’s going to end the destruction of your country,” Vance responded. “I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media. Right now, you guys are going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because you have manpower problems, you should be thanking the president for trying to bring an end to [this] conflict.”

Marco Rubio calls for Volodymyr Zelensky to apologize to Donald Trump -- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should apologize to President Trump over Friday’s heated Oval Office showdown, expressing doubt over whether the Ukrainian leader wants to forge a peace agreement to end the war in Eastern Europe. The country’s top diplomat told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins the Kyiv leader should “apologize for turning this thing into the fiasco for him that it became. There was no need for him to go in there and become antagonistic. Look, this thing went off the rails.” “When you start talking about that aggressively, and the President’s a deal maker. He’s made deals his entire life, you’re not going to get people to the table,” Rubio added.The secretary of state added that he was unsure if Zelensky wants to reach a peace agreement that would end the three-year conflict between Ukraine and Russia. “And so you start to perceive that maybe Zelensky doesn’t want a peace deal. He says he does, but maybe he doesn’t, and that active, open undermining of efforts to bring about peace is deeply frustrating for everyone who’s been involved in communications with them leading up to today,” Rubio said.

Volodymyr Zelensky won’t apologize for Oval Office clash with Donald Trump. says it was bad for both sides --Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wouldn’t apologize for the meeting with President Trump, which erupted into a remarkable and tense spat, arguing that the situation was bad for both countries.Fox News’s Bret Baier asked the Ukrainian president Friday evening if he would apologize for the meeting, which was expected to result in signing a minerals deal but instead went off the rails, and he denied any wrongdoing.“No, I respect the president and I respect the American people and if, I don’t know, I think that we have to be very open and very honest and I’m not sure that we did something bad,” Zelensky said. “I think maybe sometimes, somethings we have to discuss out of media, with all respect to democracy and to free media.”The exchange occurred with reporters and cameras in the Oval Office, making the argument public. Trump remarked when reporters were asked the leave the room that it made for good television.“This is not good for both sides, anyway, and I was very open, but I can’t change our Ukrainian attitude toward Russia,” Zelensky said, when asked if the public spat served Ukrainians well. “This is very clear that Americans are the best of our friends, Europeans are the best of our friends and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, with Russia, we are enemies.”Baier asked if the dynamic should have taken place behind closed doors, questioning if Zelensky regretted how it occurred. Zelensky looked out to an aide for what appeared to be an ask for a translation for “regret” before responding, “Yes, I think it was not good.”

Treasury Secretary: Ukraine Minerals Deal Not on Table After Zelensky 'Blew It Up' - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the US-Ukraine economic deal was no longer on the table after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky chose to “blow it up” during the contentious meeting at the White House on Friday.President Trump was ready to sign the deal with Zelensky on Friday and said the US would continue providing military aid to Ukraine before the Oval Office meeting turned hostile due to Zelensky pressing Vice President JD Vance about the idea of diplomacy with Russia.“All President Zelensky had to do was come in and sign this economic agreement, and again show no daylight — no daylight — between Ukrainian people and the American people, and he chose to blow that up,” Bessent told CBS News host Margaret Brennan.The potential deal would give the US access to a fund where Ukraine would place proceeds from its rare earth minerals, natural gas, oil, and other natural resources. While the deal didn’t give Ukraine explicit security guarantees, both Trump and Bessent made clear it would make the US more committed to Ukraine.Bessent said the purpose of the deal was “to further intertwine the American people and Ukrainian people and show no daylight. To show the Russian leadership that there was no daylight, and President Zelensky came into the Oval Office and tried to relitigate in front of the world the deal.”After the blow-up in the Oval Office, Zelensky was kicked out of the White House, and reports say President Trump is now considering cutting off all US weapons shipments to Ukraine. For his part, Zelensky says he still wants to sign the deal, although he’s asking for stronger security guarantees.“We are ready to sign the minerals agreement, and it will be the first step toward security guarantees. But it’s not enough, and we need more than just that. A ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote on X on Saturday. On Sunday, Zelensky insisted that he believes he can repair relations with the US, although Republicans are rallying behind Trump after the contentious meeting and suggesting Ukraine may need a new leader, even those who have been staunch supporters of Zelensky and the proxy war.

Peace is not Zelenskyy's priority, Tulsi Gabbard says - Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on Sunday sharply criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership of his country and said while President Donald Trump is working to end Russia’s war, “Zelenskyy has different aims in mind.” “President Trump is committed to peace and to freedom,” Gabbard told host Shannon Bream on “Fox News Sunday.” “We’re seeing this big divergence here between his position, his commitment to these values and the interests of the American people and the interests of President Zelenskyy and these European leaders.” A White House meeting between the two leaders collapsed during a press conference at the Oval Office on Friday after a remark by Zelenskyy indicating skepticism of diplomacy with Russia drew the ire of Vice President JD Vance. Trump and Vance then delivered a stunning takedown of Zelenskyy in front of reporters. And Trump asked Zelenskyy to leave the premises, declaring on his social media platform Truth Social afterward that the Ukrainian president “is not ready for peace.”nnGabbard on Sunday echoed that claim.“President Zelenskyy has different aims in mind,” she said. “He has said that he wants to end this war, but he will only accept an end apparently that leads to what he views as Ukraine’s victory even if it comes at an incredibly high cost of potentially World War III or even a nuclear war.”Democrats and European leaders called the Oval Office meeting an ambush.Put Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a staunch Ukraine ally, in that camp.“I saw the meeting as a despicable display of bullying by the President of the United States and the Vice President of the United States against somebody whose country is at war with Putin, a brutal assault by Putin, who’s lost thousands and thousands of Ukrainians,” Van Hollen told Bream, also on Sunday. “Who wants peace more than anybody, but he also wants to make sure that it’s a durable, sustainable peace.”But Gabbard put the onus on Zelenskyy to repair the damaged Ukraine-U.S. relationship.“When President Zelenskyy directly challenged President Trump and Vice President Vance in front of the media and the American people, he really showed his lack of interest in any real, good faith negotiations,” Gabbard told Bream. “This has created a huge rift in the relationship.”And now?“There’s going to have to be a rebuilding of any kind of interest in good faith negotiations I think before President Trump is going to be willing to reengage on this,” Gabbard said.Gabbard also assailed Zelenskyy’s leadership over his country, telling Bream that Kyiv had canceled elections and silenced its political opposition. Trump in February called Zelenskyy, who was elected in 2019, a “dictator without elections” and American negotiators have discussed the prospect of new elections in Ukraine in peace talks with Russian counterparts. But elections now could be perilous for Ukraine, and even Zelenskyy’s top critics are opposed to the idea of holding votes during wartime, due in large part to the risk of Russians influencing campaigns.“We could go down a whole laundry list of issues that are against the values of democracy and freedom,” Gabbard said, “So it really begs the question as Vice President Vance said again in Munich, it’s clear that they’re standing against Putin, obviously that’s clear. But what are they actually really fighting for? And are they aligned with the values that they claim to hold in agreement with us?”

Sen. Graham Calls Out Zelensky for Lack of Elections in Ukraine - On Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a staunch supporter of the Ukraine proxy war, called out Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for not holding elections and remaining in power after his term expired.Graham backed President Trump and Vice President JD Vance after their argument with Zelensky in the Oval Office, saying the Ukrainian leadershould consider resigning. In response, Zelensky called Graham a “good guy” but said he could give the US senator “Ukrainian citizenship, then his voice will gain weight.”Graham fired back in a post on X, writing, “Unfortunately, until there is an election, no one has a voice in Ukraine.”Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials justify the lack of parliamentary and presidential elections by pointing to Ukraine’s constitution, which says elections can’t be held under martial law, which has been in effect since Russia invaded in February 2022.But back in August 2023, Zelensky made it clear at one point that he could have held an election if he wanted to, suggesting that it could happen if the US and other Western countries paid for it. But the Biden administration did not put any pressure on Zelensky to hold an election and helped justify the decision.Graham was actually one of the only US officials who suggested to Zelensky that Ukraine should hold elections. “I am very pleased to hear that President Zelensky has opened the door to elections in Ukraine in 2024,”Graham said in a statement in August 2023 following Zelensky’s comments about potentially holding elections.“I cannot think of a better symbol for Ukraine than to hold free and fair elections during the course of a war. Elections would not only be seen as an act of defiance against the Russian invasion, but an embrace of democracy and freedom,” Graham added in his statement.Throughout the proxy war, Graham has been responsible for the some of the most hawkish rhetoric coming out of the US. Some of his most provocative comments involved calls for the assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin and for the US to start shooting down Russian planes.

Trump Slams Zelensky for Saying End of Ukraine War Is 'Very, Very Far Away' - President Trump on Monday slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for saying the end of the Ukraine war is “very, very far away” as the two leaders remain at odds after their argument in the Oval Office.“This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “It is what I was saying, this guy doesn’t want there to be Peace as long as he has America’s backing and, Europe, in the meeting they had with Zelenskyy, stated flatly that they cannot do the job without the US – Probably not a great statement to have been made in terms of a show of strength against Russia. What are they thinking?” the president added.Trump was responding to a report from The Associated Press that quoted Zelensky saying a deal with Russia to end the war is still “very, very far away.” Zelensky also insisted that he believes “that Ukraine has a strong enough partnership with the United States of America” to ensure aid keeps flowing, but later in the day, Trump paused all military aid to Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also said that the US-Ukraine economic deal was no longer on the table after Zelensky chose to “blow it up.”After Zelensky was kicked out of the White House, he was embraced by European leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who ispushing for a deal that involves a major European troop deployment to Ukraine, an idea Russia has repeatedly rejected. But Starmer’s plan also calls for US security guarantees backed by US air power in Europe.

Trump pauses aid to Ukraine amid clash with Volodymyr Zelensky --President Trump has ordered a pause on U.S. aid going to Ukraine in its war against Russia, a consequential move as he clashes with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the path to ending the conflict. “The President has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well,” a White House official said in a statement. “We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.” The pause applies to all military aid not already on the ground in Ukraine and will effect munitions, anti-tank weapons and other materials the U.S. has provided to Kyiv since Russia invaded roughly three years ago. Trump took office with nearly $4 billion in drawdown authority available from previously approved congressional funding for Ukraine. That funding now appears poised to go unused. The move is likely to increase the pressure on Zelensky to get back in Trump’s good graces or risk losing ground in the war. It is also likely to put the spotlight on European nations seeking to rally more support for Kyiv. As of the end of fiscal 2024, Congress had approved nearly $183 billion in Ukraine aid, according to a federal government oversight office. The European Union has contributed roughly $145 billion in total assistance to Ukraine since the war began.

Trump Pauses All Military Aid to Ukraine - President Trump has paused all military aid to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing a senior Pentagon official.The pause applies to all US military equipment bound for Ukraine that’s not currently in the country, including weapons that are in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in Poland to be delivered.The Pentagon official said the US was pausing all military to Ukraine until the country’s leadership demonstrates a good faith commitment to peace. A senior Trump administration official told Fox News, “This is not permanent termination of aid, it’s a pause.”The move comes a few days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky clashed with President Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office, an argument that started after Zelensky questioned the administration’s push for diplomacy with Russia. News of the pause comes after reports said the Trump administration was holding a meeting on Monday afternoon on the possibility of pausing military aid to Ukraine. Before the meeting, the US had already frozen weapons sales to Ukraine under the State Department’s Foreign Military Financing program, which only accounted for a small portion of the US weapons supply to Ukraine.While the Trump administration hasn’t approved any new military aid for Ukraine, President Biden signed off on a massive number of arms packages during his final months in office that would take years to deliver. The aid approved by Biden came in two forms: the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which ships weapons straight from US military stockpiles, and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows the Pentagon to purchase arms for Ukraine.

Trump Suspends Intelligence Sharing With Ukrainian Military - The Trump administration has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine on top of the suspension of military aid as part of an effort to get Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to pursue peace talks with Russia. The intelligence pause has had an immediate effect on Ukraine’s war effort since it has relied on US intelligence for tracking Russian troops, and it’s required for firing US-provided HIMARS rocket systems. A US official told Axios that the pause on intelligence sharing was focused on information that Ukraine could use to launch attacks inside Russian territory, operations that have risked provoking a direct clash between the US and Russia.White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz suggested that the pause on both intelligence sharing and military aid could be lifted once peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are set. “I think if we can nail down these negotiations and move towards these negotiations and, in fact, put some confidence building measures on the table, then the president will take a hard look at lifting this pause,” Waltz said. “We have to know that both sides are sincerely negotiating towards a partial, then permanent, peace.”On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Oval Office argument he had with President Trump and Vice President JD Vance was “regrettable” and insisted he was ready to work toward peace. Zelensky also said he was ready to sign the economic deal with the US that would give the US access to revenues from Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources.The Axios report said that the pause on intelligence sharing was the key issue that motivated Zelensky to put out the statement. But so far, Zelensky’s comments haven’t been enough for the US to resume weapons shipments and intelligence support.CIA Director John Ratcliffe suggested that the US could soon resume supporting the war. He said the pause “will go away, and we will work with Ukraine shoulder to shoulder as we have to push back on the aggression that is there but to put the world at a better place for this peace negotiations to move forward.”

British Storm Shadow Missiles Useless for Ukraine Following US Intelligence Pause - Ukraine’s British-provided Storm Shadow missiles are likely to be useless now that the US has paused intelligence sharing with the Ukrainian military, the Daily Mail reported on Thursday.The report said that the UK is among several countries that have received orders from the US prohibiting the sharing of US-generated intelligence with Ukraine. The Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles, rely on US satellite data to be fired.Last year, Ukraine began firing Storm Shadows and US-provided ATACMS missiles into Russia, marking a significant escalation of the proxy war that risked provoking a direct clash between the US and Russia.According to a report from Axios, the pause on intelligence sharing was focused on information that Ukraine could use to launch attacks inside Russian territory. The Daily Mail report said that the Storm Shadows have been a “critical asset” for Ukraine in its assault on Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Besides the satellite data, the US has other intelligence capabilities inside Ukraine since the CIA has been deeply embedded in the country, a presence it began significantly building up following the 2014 US-backed coup that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. US officials have said the pauses on US military and intelligence sharing will be lifted once Ukraine shows its readiness to engage with Russia on peace talks to end the war. US and Ukrainian officials are expected to hold talks in Saudi Arabia next week.

France steps in to provide military intelligence to Ukraine as the U.S. freezes vital information | The Hill— France is providing military intelligence to Ukraine after Washington announced it was freezing the sharing of information with Kyiv, French defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Thursday. The U.S. said Wednesday it had paused its intelligence sharing with Ukraine, cutting off the flow of vital information that has helped the war-torn nation target Russian invaders, but Trump administration officials have said that positive talks between Washington and Kyiv mean it may only be a short suspension. American intelligence is vital for Ukraine to track Russian troop movements and select targets. Speaking to France Inter radio on Thursday, Lecornu said France is continuing its intelligence sharing. “Our intelligence is sovereign,” Lecornu said. “We have intelligence that we allow Ukraine to benefit from.” Lecornu added that following the US decision to suspend all military aid to Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron asked him to “accelerate the various French aid packages” to make up for the lack of American assistance. Trump announces 1-month delay on Canada, Mexico tariffs for cars Lecornu said that in the wake of the U.S. decision, shipments of Ukraine-bound aid departing from Poland had been suspended, adding however that “Ukrainians, unfortunately, have learned to fight this war for three years now and know how to stockpile.”

Ukrainian Ambassador to UK Says the US Is 'Destroying' the 'World Order' - Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief who now serves as the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, has said the US is “destroying” the “world order” in comments critical of the Trump administration’s approach toward the war.Speaking at a conference hosted by the Chatham House think tank, Zaluzhny said the actions of the US under President Trump have called into question “the unity of the whole Western world.”“We see that it is not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order,” the former military commander said.Zaluzhny added that the Trump administration’s diplomacy with Russia was a sign that the US was taking “steps towards the Kremlin, trying to meet them halfway.”Zaluzhny’s comments came after the US paused military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine, which he said was “a huge challenge for the entire world.”In recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been taking a conciliatory tone toward the Trump administration to unfreeze US support, and according to POLITICO, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is distancing itself from Zaluzhny’s remarks, saying it was just his personal opinion.Zaluzhny clashed with Zelensky during his time in charge of the war effort and has long been rumored to be a potential candidate if Ukraine holds presidential elections.A poll conducted in 2024 found that Zelensky would lose to Zaluzhny if an election were held at that time. According to the survey, 41% favored Zaluzhny in a first-round election, while only 23.7% would vote for Zelensky.Zelensky has come under criticism from President Trump for the lack of elections in Ukraine, as the Ukrainian leader has remained in power beyond his term, which expired in May 2024. US officials have said that the Trump administration wants elections in Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal.

Zelensky Says White House Meeting Was 'Regrettable,' Suggests Steps Toward Peace After Trump Cuts Aid - On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his Oval Office meeting that ended in an argument with President Trump and Vice President JD Vance was “regrettable” and suggested potential steps toward peace with Russia after the Trump administration paused all military aid to Ukraine.Ukrainian officials have said they believe their military stockpiles will only last six months without continued US military aid. US officials speaking to the media about the aid pause said it would remain in place until Ukrainian leadership demonstrated that it was ready to work toward peace. Zelensky insisted on Tuesday that he didn’t want “endless war.”“Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts,” Zelensky wrote on X.The Ukrainian leader suggested the first steps of a deal with Russia could involve a ban on long-range attacks, the bombing of energy infrastructure, and attacks at sea.“We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same,” he said.Zelensky said that after those initial steps, Ukraine would “want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal.”Zelensky also expressed gratitude for previous US support and thanked President Trump for supplying Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles during his first term, a step that marked a significant escalation of US support for the Ukrainian military at the time.Regarding the blow-up in the Oval Office, Zelensky said, “Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.” The Ukrainian leader also said he was ready to sign the deal on Ukraine’s minerals and other natural resources. President Trump was ready to ink the deal the day of the Oval Office meeting but kicked Zelensky out of the White House after the spat.

Trump Says Zelensky Told Him Ukraine Is Willing to Work With US Toward Peace - Zelensky also told Trump that he was ready to sign the deal that would give the US access to revenue from Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources “at any time that is convenient for you.” Zelensky made similar comments in public earlier in the day, saying his Oval Office meeting that ended with an argument with Trump and Vice President JD Vance was “regrettable.” Zelensky also suggested potential steps toward peace with Russia after the Trump administration paused all military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian officials have said they believe their military stockpiles will only last six months without continued US military aid. US officials speaking to the media about the aid pause said it would remain in place until Ukrainian leadership demonstrated that it was ready to work toward peace. Zelensky insisted on Tuesday that he didn’t want “endless war.”“Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer,” Zelensky wrote on X.The Ukrainian leader suggested the first steps of a deal with Russia could involve a ban on long-range attacks, the bombing of energy infrastructure, and attacks at sea.“We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same,” he said.Zelensky said that after those initial steps, Ukraine would “want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal.”Zelensky also expressed gratitude for previous US support and thanked President Trump for supplying Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles during his first term, a step that marked a significant escalation of US support for the Ukrainian military at the time. Regarding the blow-up in the Oval Office, Zelensky said, “Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive.”

Russia Agrees To Broker Talks Between the US and Iran - Russia has agreed to broker talks between the US and Iran amid heightening tensions between Washington and Tehran as the Trump administration has been increasing sanctions, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. The report said President Trump discussed the idea during his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, and it was discussed further when US and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia days later. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov appeared to confirm that Russia was willing to broker talks in comments to Bloomberg. He said that “Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations” and that Moscow “is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this.” A White House official said the discussions were in their early stages and that it was unclear if US-Iran talks would yield any progress. Iranian officials have ruled out the idea of direct talks with the US after President Trump re-imposed his so-called “maximum pressure campaign” on the Islamic Republic and began increasing sanctions. Trump has said he wants a deal on Iran’s nuclear program and has even acknowledged that Iranian leadership doesn’t want a nuclear bomb. William Burns, the head of the CIA under President Biden, alsoacknowledged in January that there’s no evidence Tehran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. Trump has also threatened Iran, saying a deal would be preferable to “bombing” the country, suggesting he will consider military action if an agreement is reached. Israel, which has nuclear weapons the US doesn’t recognize, is reportedly looking to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and wants support from the US.

US, Israel Reject French Proposal to End IDF Presence in Lebanon - Weeks after the February 18 deadline for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon has come and gone, IDF troops remain at the five hilltop surveillance posts they hastily constructed in southern Lebanon ahead of that deadline, and there are increasing signs that this is an indefinite occupation. The ceasefire ending the Israeli invasion of Lebanon was reached in late November, and initially the deadline for withdrawal was January 26, though the US and Israel ultimately stretched that out to February 18. The US and France were meant to be the guarantors of the ceasefire and the Israeli pullout. Enforcement of the ceasefire has been effectively non-existent, with the US only giving empty guarantees that Israel was on track to meet deadlines, while giving them a green light to stay. France, however, has been offering proposals that would end with Israel not occupying Lebanon at all. French proposals have centered around bolstering the UNIFIL peacekeeper force and having them replace the IDF at the hilltop posts, or potentially even stationing French troops inside southern Lebanon at places that Israel would designate. Replacing an Israeli occupation with a French one is probably sub-optimal from Lebanon’s perspective, but it doesn’t have a very recent history of violent invasion and massive civilian casualties associated with it. How palatable a French military presence would be to Lebanon apparently isn’t an issue at any rate, since Israel and the US both rejected these proposals out of hand. Sources are reported as saying any transfer of the Lebanese hilltops, even to the Lebanese military, would first need to be “negotiated.” Israeli officials have argued vague “strategic reasons” why they need to just stay in southern Lebanon, though underlying this is a reality that they’re not planning to leave at any point. While UNIFIL is urging both sides to avoid “escalation” of tensions, an open-ended occupation could be a big driver of that. Lebanon’s President Aoun has termed Israel’s continued presence an occupation, though he so far doesn’t suggest doing anything about it beyond complaining to the international community.

Israel's Smotrich Meets With US Treasury Secretary in Washington - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, an outspoken proponent of the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from Gaza and Israeli annexation of the West Bank, has arrived in the US and met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington on Wednesday.The Biden administration reportedly had a tacit ban on Smotrich visiting Washington, although President Biden provided Israel with plenty of weapons and political support to advance policies favored by Smotrich and other far-right Israeli politicians. “Good morning from Washington,” Smotrich said in a post on X. “After four years in which, under the Biden administration, no ministerial-level meeting took place between the US Treasury Department and the Israeli government – we are now entering the US Treasury Department for a very important meeting.”Smotrich said he would thank the Trump administration for its “unequivocal support of the State of Israel in the critical war of existence we are waging.After meeting with Bessent, Smotrich released what he said was a joint statement from the two officials. The statement said they “reaffirmed the strong and enduring commitment of both nations to a strategic economic partnership” and agreed to “strengthen dialogue mechanisms to enhance collaboration in key areas, including economic policy, technology, and financial regulation.”Smotrich is also expected to drum up support for the Israeli annexation of the Israeli-occupied West Bank during his time in Washington. On February 5, President Trump was asked about Israeli annexation of the Palestinian territory and said he would have an announcement on the matter in four weeks, and Wednesday marks exactly four weeks since he made those comments.Besides being the Israeli finance minister, Smotrich also holds a ministerial position that gives him the power to expand Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and he has overseen massive Israeli land grabs in the territory. Smotrich, a settler himself, also favors the establishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza and has welcomed Trump’s calls for the permanent expulsion of Palestinians from the territory.Smotrich recently claimed that the ethnic cleansing plan would start within weeks. He has previously said that it may be “moral and justified” for Israel to starve to death two million Palestinians living in Gaza.

Report: US Holding Direct Talks With Hamas for First Time - The Trump administration is holding direct talks with Hamas, marking the first time the US has ever engaged directly with the Palestinian group, Axios reported on Wednesday. The report, which has been confirmed by the White House, said the talks were focused on the release of the bodies of four Israeli hostages held in Gaza who have US citizenship and a US citizen who is believed to be alive, 21-year-old Edan Alexander, who grew up in New Jersey and moved to Israel after high school to join the Israeli military.The report said the US and Hamas are also discussing the possibility of reaching a broader deal on a permanent truce, although Israel has severely violated the agreement reached in January and has now imposed a total siege on aid and all other goods entering Gaza with full US backing.The talks have been held in Doha, Qatar, in recent weeks between Adam Boehler, President Trump’s special envoy for hostages, and Hamas officials. One source told Axios that while the US consulted Israel about the possible talks, Israel learned about them through other channels. An Israeli source told The Times of Israel that the possibility of direct talks between the US and Hamas came up during the Biden administration, but Israel expressed its opposition. The source said Israel didn’t think it was in the position to oppose the idea under the Trump administration and said that Israeli officials weren’t fully briefed on Boehler’s talks with Hamas ahead of time. A Hamas source told Al Arabiya that the group has had direct contact with Adam Boehler as well as President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, which was not mentioned in the Axios report. Back in January, Hamas said it was ready to engage directly with the US, and the idea was welcomed by Witkoff.While the Trump administration is engaging in diplomacy with Hamas, President Trump has repeatedly threatened the group, vowing there will be “hell to pay” if the hostages aren’t released. He has also repeatedlycalled for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza to make way for his plan for a US takeover of the Strip.The Trump administration has also emboldened Israel by providing billions in new military aid as it threatens to restart its genocidal war and is in blatant violation of the ceasefire deal reached in January.

Witkoff Says Trump Threat Came After US Didn't Like What It Heard From Hamas in Direct Talks - Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy for the Middle East, said Thursday that President Trump’s latest ultimatum against Hamas, which included a threat against the “people of Gaza,” came after the US didn’t like what it heard in direct talks with the Palestinian group.Witkoff and other US officials have confirmed that the US has engaged directly with Hamas for the first time through Adam Boehler, President Trump’s special envoy for hostage affairs.“Unfortunately, what we learned is that Hamas told us they were going to be thinking about it a certain way… That’s important information for us to have. And so came the tweet from the president,” Witkoff told reporters at the White House.The Times of Israel reported on Thursday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unhappy about the direct US-Hamas talks and that the negotiations have hit a “snag” following the leak to the media. The talks were first reported by Axios reporter Barak Ravid, a former IDF intelligence officer. Israel wasn’t fully briefed about the talks ahead of time, and Ravid’s report said Israel learned about the details “through other channels.”The focus of the US-Hamas talks has been on the release of the bodies of four Israeli hostages held in Gaza who have US citizenship and a US citizen who is believed to be alive, 21-year-old Edan Alexander, who grew up in New Jersey and moved to Israel after high school to join the Israeli military.In his ultimatum to Hamas, Trump said the group would be “over” and the “people of Gaza” would be “dead” if the hostages weren’t released immediately. The threat came after Trump hosted Israelis who were previously held hostage in Gaza.Witkoff said that the US was still open to “dialogue” with Hamas but said if it didn’t work, “then the alternative is not such a good alternative for Hamas.” He also hinted at potential military action if they didn’t free the hostages and leave Gaza. “It’s not clear exactly what’s going to happen. Some kind of action will be taken. It could be jointly with the Israelis, it’s not clear right now,” he said. “They’re not gonna be a part of the government there, everyone understands that. If they understand that, they have a path to leave,” Witkoff added. When asked to elaborate on what he meant by “joint Israeli action,” Witkoff said he meant Israel taking action with US support. “Any action really principally comes from the Israelis. But you heard the president say yesterday he’s giving the Israelis anything they need. So, it’s the Israelis but with very, very strong physical and emotional support from the US,” he said. Hamas responded to Trump’s latest threat on Thursday, saying it complicates the ceasefire process. “These threats complicate the ceasefire agreement and encourage Israel to evade its commitments,” said Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem. “Hamas has fulfilled all its obligations under phase one, but Israel is refusing to move to phase two. The US administration must pressure the occupation to engage in negotiations for the next phase, as outlined in the agreement.” Hamas also said that the “best path to free the remaining Israeli hostages” is through negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire deal. Israel violated the initial deal by refusing to enter talks on phase two and has imposed a total blockade on all goods entering Gaza to pressure Hamas to accept its new terms, which involve more hostages being freed without a full Israeli withdrawal and commitment to a permanent truce. The US has backed Israel’s collective punishment of the civilian population in order to pressure Hamas.

Trump Eases Restrictions on Airstrikes, Special Operations Raids - President Trump has eased restrictions on US airstrikes and special operations raids in areas outside of countries officially considered combat zones by the US, giving US military commanders the freedom to launch attacks without permission from the White House.The order reverts back to the policy of the first Trump administration, doing away with restrictions President Biden added to US drone strikes and raids outside of Iraq and Syria, the only two countries the US officially considers combat zones.Biden’s rules required permission from the White House to target militants outside Iraq and Syria unless they were high-ranking commanders. But the rule had a major loophole: Strikes could be ordered if they could be framed as “self-defense.” In Somalia, the US almost always claims its airstrikes are launched in defense of the US-backed Mogadishu-based government.Trump’s rules give commanders the ability to target any militants belonging to organizations the US considers terrorist organizations without White House approval. The easing of the restrictions was confirmed by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who shared a CBS Newsreport about the step on X and wrote, “Correct.” The news comes amid an uptick in US airstrikes in Somalia and Syria. US officials told CBS that al-Shabaab in Somalia, which the US targeted three times in recent weeks, and the Houthis in Yemen were discussed as potential targets by the Trump administration. So far, there have been no known US airstrikes against the Houthis under the new Trump administration. From January 2024 to January 2025, President Biden waged a bombing campaign against the Houthis in defense of Israeli shipping. The attacks failed to deter the Houthis and only escalated the situation in the Red Sea. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have stopped attacks on Israel and on shipping in the region in response to the Gaza ceasefire deal. But those attacks could restart as Israel appears poised to restart its genocidal war.

US B-52 Bomber Flies With Israeli Jets Over Eastern Mediterranean - A US B-52 Stratrofortress bomber flew over the eastern Mediterranean Sea on March 4, marking the third US flyover of the Middle East in the past month, shows of force that are meant as threats toward Iran and its allies in the region. “Israeli F-35i and F-15i aircraft flew alongside an American US B-52 strategic bomber,” the Israeli militarysaid in a statement on Thursday. “During the flight, the forces practiced operational coordination between the two militaries to enhance their ability to address various regional threats.” US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that it conducted a “Bomber Task Force Mission in the Middle East.” It said the B-52, which is capable of carrying nuclear weapons, took off from a base in the UK and flew across Europe on its way to the Middle East. According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, the US bomber “orbited off the coast of Israel,” meaning it likely flew near the besieged Gaza Strip. The flight came just two weeks after the US sent two B-52 bombers over the Middle East on February 20. CENTCOM said the two bombers “flew across Europe and six partner countries in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility during their mission, which included aerial refueling and training missions at ranges.”Just a few days earlier, on February 18, CENTCOM said two US B-52 bombers flew over the region along with US F-15 fighter jets and aircraft from four “partner nations.” That flight included “aerial refueling drills and live munitions drops.”The uptick in US bomber flights in the region came after reports said that Israel was looking to bomb Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities in the coming months with US support. The region is also on edge as the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal is hanging by a thread due to repeated Israeli violations.

US Reports Drone Strike in Syria’s Idlib Killed ‘Senior al-Qaeda Leader’ - Last weekend, it was reported that the US attacked and killed Wasim Tahsin Bayraqdar, a “senior leadership facilitator” for Hurras al-Din, in an attack in Syria’s Idlib Governorate. Around that time, it was also being reported another US drone strike had happened in Idlib, and another person was killed.CENTCOM has now identified the person killed in the second strike that weekend as Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay, who has also been labeled a “senior military leader of al-Qaeda affiliate Hurras al-Din.” The announcement includes a brief video of the drone hitting his car.Little concrete information can actually be proven about Talay, as like so many “al-Qaeda leaders” slain in US drone strikes he was never publicly identified as such until he got killed. There are, however, reports that Talay was known, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) referring to him as Abo Jaffar al-Turkey and social media accounts referring to him separately as Jafar at-Turki or similar variations like Cetar et-Türki. Multiple media reports do present Talay as a Turkish national, though so far Turkey has not confirmed that was the case. The SOHR report also suggests that he was a member of Hurras al-Din at one point, but also cites an unnamed source saying he left the group and joint Jaish al-Ahrar, another Islamist group in Idlib.Since both Hurras al-Din and Jaish al-Ahrar announced their dissolution in late January, it isn’t apparent what, if any, organization Talay was actually a current member of. This strike marks the fourth US drone strike against a Hurras al-Din “leader” since President Trump came to power, and moreover, the fourth such strike since Hurras al-Din dissolved.Sunni Islamist factions were overwhelmingly centered in Idlib Governorate until December, when the also al-Qaeda-linked Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized power in a Turkish-backed offensive. With HTS now in power, the other Islamist groups have been dissolving in quick succession, likely seeing little left to accomplish. HTS got its start as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), and was not directly associated with Hurras al-Din, which was considered the al-Qaeda in Syria affiliate. There were however close ideological similarities, and membership in those groups has a tendency to overlap, as exemplified by last week’s killing of Bayraqdar, who was the brother of HTS figure Samer Bayraqdar, who is presently the Syrian Religious Endowments Minister. The US stance toward the HTS government is still uncertain, as the continued strikes in Idlib so far are focusing entirely on Hurras al-Din. The statements from US officials barely indicate recognition of Syria as a country at all since Assad’s ouster, but merely as a region they are actively operating in.

US Launches Three Airstrikes Against al-Shabaab in Somalia Within Two Weeks - The US launched three airstrikes in Somalia against al-Shabaab within the past two weeks, marking an escalation of the US air war in the country.The series of airstrikes started with one on February 20, which US Africa Command (AFRICOM) said was launched near Bulo Burti in central Somalia. The strike marked the first known US attack on al-Shabaab under the new Trump administration. Earlier in February, the US bombed ISIS targets in northeast Somalia’s Puntland region.AFRICOM reported another US airstrike in central Somalia that targeted al-Shabaab on February 25. Another US bombing was reported to occur near Bulo Burti on March 1, which AFRICOM claimed killed “several terrorists.”In all three of the US airstrikes against al-Shabaab, AFRICOM said they were launched in support of the US-backed Mogadishu-based government and described the attacks as “collective self-defense.” The command also claimed its initial assessments found no civilians were harmed, but the Pentagon is notorious for hiding civilian casualties in Somalia.The ramped-up US airstrikes in Somalia come amid news that President Trump eased restrictions on US airstrikes and special operations raids outside conventional battlefields.

Trump calls for firing generals over Afghanistan withdrawal -- President Trump said “every single one” of the military generals involved in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan should be fired, seated next to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday. Trump was questioned about whether his administration would fire or relieve from duty the military officers involved in the August 2021 withdrawal. “I’m not going to tell this man what to do, but I will say that if I had his place I’d fire every single one of them,” Trump said, gesturing to Hegseth. Hegseth replied that the Pentagon is “doing a complete review of every single aspect of what happened” with the deadly and chaotic August 2021 withdrawal and intends to deliver “full accountability.” Trump has been highly critical of the United States’ chaotic and deadly departure, which happened under President Biden, but was set in motion by Trump when, in 2020, he negotiated and signed a deal with the Taliban committing to an earlier timeline for the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. After Trump’s election loss in 2020, he ordered a rapid withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan, though senior officials never followed through, according to testimony released by the congressional January 6 committee in October 2022. Under Biden, who delayed the planned withdrawal by a few months, 13 U.S. service members and more than 170 Afghans were killed by a suicide bombing outside the Abbey Gate of Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul as forces were exiting. In the weeks before the U.S. was to fully leave, the country quickly fell to the Taliban, who seized abandoned American military equipment. Trump on Tuesday called on the Taliban to return the U.S. equipment left behind. “I think they should give our equipment back. And I told Pete to study that. But we left billions, tens of billions of dollars worth of equipment behind. Brand new trucks. You see them display it every year, on their little roadways,” he said. He claimed the Taliban was selling the military weapons and gear, making Afghanistan, in Trump’s telling, “one of the biggest sellers of military equipment in the world.” “They’re selling 777,000 rifles, 70,000 armor plated . . . trucks and vehicles,” he said. “I think we should get it back.” He also asserted the U.S. should have kept control of Bagram Air Base, once the largest American military base in Afghanistan now controlled by the Taliban. Trump claimed that China’s People’s Liberation Army has since taken control of the former U.S. base, which China has repeatedly denied.

Arab League Backs Egypt's Gaza Reconstruction Plan, Israel and US Reject It - The Arab League issued a statement following a summit in Cairo on Tuesday backing an Egyptian-proposed $53 billion reconstruction plan for Gaza, an idea quickly rejected by Israel and the US.The Egyptian proposal was a response to President Trump’s calls for the US to “take over” Gaza, a plan that would involve an ethnic cleansing campaign to forcibly displace Palestinians. The Arab statement rejected “any form of Palestinian displacement, whether within or beyond their land, under any pretext or justification.”A major talking point from the Trump administration is that Palestinians can no longer live in Gaza due to the massive destruction caused by the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign, but the Egyptian proposal would keep Palestinians in the territory during reconstruction.The first phase of the five-year reconstruction plan would involve establishing temporary housing and initial repairs of partially damaged homes that aren’t totally destroyed. A temporary committee led by the Palestinian Authority (PA) would oversee the first six months of reconstruction, and then the PA would take over the management of the Strip.Hamas, which has said it does not need to rule over a post-war Gaza, welcomed the plan. “We welcome the Gaza reconstruction plan adopted in the summit’s final statement and call for ensuring all necessary resources for its success,” the group said.Hamas also expressed support for “the formation of the Community Support Committee to oversee relief efforts, reconstruction and governance in Gaza,” referring to the temporary committee.In its statement rejecting the proposal, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said the Arab League’s statement “fails to address the realities of the situation following October 7th, 2023, remaining rooted in outdated perspectives.”The Israeli Foreign Ministry complained that the Arab statement didn’t condemn Hamas’s October 7 attack and that it “relies” on the PA and the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA. The ministry called for President Trump’s plan to be implemented instead. “Now, with President Trump’s idea, there is an opportunity for the Gazans to have free choice based on their free will. This should be encouraged! Instead, Arab states have rejected this opportunity, without giving it a fair chance, and continue to level baseless accusations against Israel,” the ministry said.White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes also rejected the Arab League statement, saying the plan doesn’t “address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance.”Hughes added that President Trump “stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas.”

Trump Administration Announces Steps To Crack Down on Protests Critical of Israel - Trump administration officials have announced measures to suppress protests on college campuses that are critical of Israel, steps that have chilling implications for First Amendment rights.President Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would cut federal funding to colleges that allow “illegal protests,” a reference to the student-led pro-Palestine demonstrations that have spread across the country in response to Israel’s bombing campaign and siege on Gaza. The president also threatened that “agitators” would be imprisoned or deported if they were foreign students.“All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests. Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on the crime, arrested. NO MASKS!” the president said.Elise Stefanik, Trump’s nominee to be ambassador to the UN, celebrated Trump’s announcement and acknowledged that the purpose of the order is to target protests against Israel.“Under President [Trump], colleges and universities will be held accountable. Antisemitism and anti-Israel hate will not be tolerated on American campuses. Promises made, promises kept,” Stefanik said. Journalist Glenn Greenwald, a constitutional lawyer, explained in a video posted on X why cutting federal funding over political speech and protests is a violation of the First Amendment.“You can take the position that there should be no federal funding of universities or there should be, that’s independent of the free speech point,” Greenwald said. “Once the federal government or any government decides to offer a benefit that’s optional … it cannot then condition receipt of that benefit on your expressing a particular view, your affirming a particular view, or your refraining from expressing a political view. This is basic First Amendment doctrine.”Trump’s announcement came a day after Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of Health and Human Services, announced HHS would be taking steps to combat “antisemitism” on college campuses in another directive aimed at pro-Palestinian protests. While both President Trump and his predecessor have labeled the protests “antisemitic,” many Jewish students and organizations have been involved in the demonstrations. HHS said in a press release that it, along with the Department of Education and the US General Services Administration, will be launching a “comprehensive review of Columbia University’s federal contracts and grants in light of ongoing investigations for potential violations of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act” over allegations of antisemitism related to pro-Palestine protests.

The West's Support For Israel Is The #1 Threat To Free Speech - President Trump has made a post on Truth Social saying federal funding will be cut to universities which allow “illegal protests” on their campuses, obliquely referring to pro-Palestine demonstrations against Israel’s genocidal atrocities.“All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests,” Trump said. “Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on on the crime, arrested. NO MASKS!”Elise Stefanik, Trump’s nominee for ambassador to the UN, made it clear that this was the Trump administration taking a position on “anti-Israel hate.”“Antisemitism and anti-Israel hate will not be tolerated on American campuses,” tweeted Stefanik with a screenshot of Trump’s Truth Social post. Trump’s declaration follows a completely insane statement from health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr which makes the targeting of pro-Palestine protests much more explicit.“Anti-Semitism — like racism — is a spiritual and moral malady that sickens societies and kills people with lethalities comparable to history’s most deadly plagues,” said Kennedy. “In recent years, the censorship and false narratives of woke cancel culture have transformed our great universities into greenhouses for this deadly and virulent pestilence. Making America healthy means building communities of trust and mutual respect, based on speech freedom and open debate.” Leaving aside Kennedy’s ridiculous claim that antisemitism “kills people with lethalities comparable to history’s most deadly plagues” in modern times and all the weird mental contortions he’s performing to turn this into a Health and Human Services issue, conflating pro-Palestine protests with antisemitism and then claiming it needs to be eliminated as a “pestilence” squarely contradicts Kennedy’s asserted support for “speech freedom and open debate.” Kennedy’s bat shit crazy remarks align with an accompanying statement from Secretary of Education Linda McMahon, who says, “Americans have watched in horror for more than a year now, as Jewish students have been assaulted and harassed on elite university campuses. Unlawful encampments and demonstrations have completely paralyzed day-to-day campus operations, depriving Jewish students of learning opportunities to which they are entitled.” They are using the completely fictional narrative of “antisemitism” on university campuses to stomp out protests against Israeli atrocities in the United States. They couldn’t be more transparent about it. Which is why civil rights groups like the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and theFoundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) immediately released statements denouncing this move by the Trump administration.“It is disturbing to see the White House threatening freedom of speech and academic freedom on U.S. college campuses so blatantly,” said Cecillia Wang, legal director of the ACLU. “We stand in solidarity with university leaders in their commitment to free speech, open debate, and peaceful dissent on campus. Trump’s latest coercion campaign, attempting to turn university administrators against their own students and faculty, harkens back to the McCarthy era and is at odds with American constitutional values and the basic mission of universities.”“Today’s message will cast an impermissible chill on student protests about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” says FIRE. “Paired with President Trump’s 2019 executive order adopting an unconstitutional definition of anti-Semitism, andhis January order threatening to deport international students for engaging in protected expression, students will rationally fear punishment for wholly protected political speech.”

Saudi Arabia Wins Over Trump With Trillion-Dollar Bid - As countries worldwide scramble to understand how to work with President Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia has set an example with its $1.3 trillion investment plans. Trump announced the Gulf kingdom's spending plans on Thursday and they include purchases of American military equipment. Trump said he plans to head to the world's top oil exporter on the first foreign tour of his second term. The Saudi investment, to be made over four years, is a sign of the deepening relationship between the two countries and of Saudi Arabia's importance not only as a pivotal regional player in the Middle East but globally. The relationship is also personal given the ties between Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, known as MbS, and Trump, which developed during the U.S. president's first term. "Crown Prince MBS is Trump's king of deal makers," Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told Newsweek. "There is no one else in the world now who could compete for Trump's attention as MBS does." Saudi Arabia has long been a major player in U.S. defense contracts, with the kingdom depending heavily on American-made weapons and military systems. This reliance on U.S. defense technology could influence the scope of the planned investments. The United States offers Sunni Saudi Arabia protection against Shiite adversary Iran, particularly at a time both countries are wary of Tehran potentially acquiring nuclear weapons. Despite criticism of Saudi Arabia and MBS over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018, the relationship between Trump and MBS remained strong. Saudi Arabia is now an ever more important diplomatic force on the global stage - in Europe as well as the Middle East. It was the venue for the first talks between Trump's officials and Russian counterparts last month. The kingdom is hosting a round of U.S.-Ukraine talks next week in Jeddah. "By maintaining strategic neutrality, Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as a trusted mediator between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S.," Saudi political analyst Mubarak al-Atee told Newsweek. The crown prince's relationship with Trump plays a critical role in this dynamic. Their bond is built on mutual respect and shared interests, especially in terms of business and security. Saudi Arabia continues to seek investment opportunities in U.S. tech sectors, such as Silicon Valley. A key upcoming test of Saudi influence will be the conflict over Gaza between Israel and Hamas. Saudi Arabia has held out the prospect of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords that Trump achieved in his first term, but only if there is a clear path to Palestinian statehood — something that remains off the cards more than 500 days after Hamas launched an attack from Gaza into Israel that sparked the bloodiest round of conflict in decades.

Trump says he'll visit Saudi Arabia this spring after Riyadh agreed to invest $1 trillion in US | The Times of Israel US President Donald Trump says he will travel to Saudi Arabia in the spring after Riyadh agreed to invest $1 trillion in American companies over the next four years. Speaking to reporters in the White House, Trump says Saudi Arabia agreed to invest $450 billion in US companies during his first term “They’ve gotten richer, we’ve all gotten older. So I said, ‘I’ll go if you pay a $1 trillion to American companies… over a four-year period,” Trump says. “They’ve agreed to do that, so I’m going to be going there… probably over the next month and a half.” “I have a great relationship with them, and they’ve been very nice, but they’re going to be spending a lot of money to American companies for buying military equipment and a lot of other things,” he says.

Yemen's Houthis Shoot Down Another US MQ-9 Reaper Drone - The Houthis said on Tuesday that Yemeni forces have downed another US MQ-9 Reaper drone that was operating over Yemen’s Hodeidah province.A US military official acknowledged to Al Arabiya that the US Air Force had lost contact with one of its MQ-9 drones that was operating over the Red Sea as part of Operation Poseidon Archer, the US military operation targeting the Houthis.The incident marks the 15th time since 2023 that the Houthis have claimed they shot down a US MQ-9, and each drone costs about $30 million. The Pentagon has previously disputed the number claimed by the Houthis but has acknowledged many MQ-9s have been downed over Yemen.The Biden administration launched a bombing campaign against the Houthis starting in January 2024 in response to the group’s attacks on Israeli shipping, which began in response to the US-backed genocidal war on Gaza. The Houthis have stopped their attacks on Israel since the Gaza ceasefire deal was reached but have vowed to restart them if the truce collapses, which is appearing more and more likely amid flagrant Israeli violations.So far, the Trump administration hasn’t launched any airstrikes against the Houthis but may be preparing to do so as it is ramping up the pressure on the group. The administration has re-designated the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” and slapped new sanctions on the group on Wednesday. President Trump also recently loosened restrictions on drone strikes and special operations raids, and US officials said the move was made with the Houthis in mind as a potential target, along with al-Shabaab in Somalia, which US Africa Command has targeted at least three times under the new Trump administration.

Trump Officially Re-Designates Yemen's Houthis as 'Foreign Terrorist Organization' - On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the US was re-designating Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” a little over a month after President Trump signed an executive order to do so. Rubio said that in a separate move, the US will “not tolerate any country engaging with terrorist organizations like the Houthis in the name of practicing legitimate international business,” signaling the administration will pursue strong sanctions enforcement.The FTO designation makes it a crime under US law to provide “material support or resources” to the Houthis, essentially making it illegal to deliver aid to Houthi-controlled Yemen, which is where 70% to 80% of Yemenis live.The previous Trump administration first designated the Houthis as both an FTO and as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists” in 2021, a move that was quickly reversed by the Biden administration over dire warnings from aid groups that it would push millions into famine.In 2024, the Biden administration reinstated the SDGT designation on the Houthis, which makes anyone who deals with the Houthis a potential target of US sanctions, but it’s not considered as harsh as the FTO designation.The Biden administration slapped the SDGT label back on the Houthis when it began its bombing campaign against the Yemeni group, which only escalated the situation in the Red Sea. The US bombing campaign has stopped since the Houthis ceased their attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping after the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal was reached, but the group’s leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has vowedAnsar Allah is ready to intervene if Israel resumes its genocidal war. Besides impeding aid deliveries to a country that’s been dealing with a major hunger crisis for years, the terror designations also prevent the Saudis and the Houthis from signing a peace deal. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, though there has been fighting on the ground, but no lasting deal has been implemented.The warring sides reached an agreement that satisfied all parties, but the first phase includes the payment of Yemeni civil workers in Houthi-controlled areas, and that has been blocked by the SDGT designation. From 2015 to 2022, the US supported the brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis, which involved heavy airstrikes, a ground campaign, and a blockade. According to the UN, the war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege.

Kim Jong-Un's Sister Threatens Retaliation After US Nuclear-Powered Carrier Arrives In South Korea -The USS Carl Vinson arrived in South Korea at the start of this week. The move was a show of force and drew a sharp rebuke from Pyongyang.A Pentagon press release said the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, which serves as the flagship of the Navy’s Carrier Strike Group One, "arrived in the Republic of Korea (ROK) for a scheduled port visit" beginning March 2, adding that "The visit to Busan exemplifies the US commitment to the region, further enhancing relationships with ROK leaders and the local population.”Rear Adm. Michael Wosje, commander of the strike group, said the show of force was important to US policy in the region. “An aircraft carrier port visit demonstrates our commitment to the alliance between the US and the Republic of Korea.” He continued, “Our alliance remains the linchpin of peace and security in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula, and we are dedicated to working with our ROK Navy counterparts to ensure stability in the region.” However, deployments of advanced US military equipment to the Korean Peninsula have been repeatedly denounced by the DPRK, often prompting reciprocal shows of force from North Korea. In response to the Vinson’s arrival in South Korea, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un said, “The United States is repeatedly committing provocative acts that ignore North Korea’s security concerns and worsen the situation.”“The United States is openly demonstrating its intention to be the most hostile and confrontational toward the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea through these practical actions,” she added.“The root of the escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula clearly lies with the United States and its allies, who are further intensifying their military moves to transplant NATO’s infrastructure into the region and raise the level of war preparedness,” she continued.Pyongyang’s complaints are rooted in the fact that the Vinson, as well as a US submarine that arrived in South Korea earlier this year, are capable of delivering nuclear strikes. Kim said North Korea would continue to strengthen its nuclear program. “The hostile policy toward North Korea pursued by the United States today, along with its actions, provides ample justification for the infinite strengthening of our nuclear war deterrence. We will not just sit back and comment on the situation,” she explained.

US Releases $870 Million in Military Aid for Taiwan, Angering China - The US has quietly released $870 million in funding for military aid to Taiwan after it was briefly paused during the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid.Reuters first reported on February 21 that the US released the military aid for Taiwan as part of $5.3 billion in exemptions from the foreign aid pause. China, which strongly opposes US military support for Taiwan, reacted to the news on February 26.“We are deeply concerned over relevant reports,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian. “China has all along opposed US military assistance to China’s Taiwan region, which has severely violated the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, undermined China’s sovereignty and security interests, and sent a gravely wrong signal to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.”Lin added that China urges the US to “stop arming Taiwan and undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”The US has always sold weapons to Taiwan since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei as part of a normalization agreement with Beijing in 1979, but it wasn’t until 2023 that the US began providing US-funded military aid, a step that marked a significant escalation. In 2024, President Biden signed off on more than $1 billion in military aid for Taiwan.The US military support is done in the name of deterrence, but it has only escalated tensions in the region. During a press conference on February 27, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian issued a strong warningagainst US involvement in Taiwan, which has been encouraged by the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).“The Taiwan question is an internal affair of China, which brooks no external interference. The US side wants to contain China with Taiwan and connives at risky and provocative activities of the DPP authorities for ‘Taiwan independence.’ This strategy will ultimately backfire,” Wu said.“The DPP authorities have an illusion of ‘soliciting US support for independence’ and ‘resisting unification by force.’ It is a serious miscalculation of the situation, the public opinion, and the comparison of strength. Overreaching itself in such a way is extremely dangerous,” Wu added. ” We warn the DPP authorities that holding back the tide with a broom will only end up in self-destruction. We will come and get you, sooner or later.”President Trump recently declined to say whether or not the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked the island, reverting the US back to a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the issue, which was abandoned by President Biden. While Trump has a less bellicose tone toward China, the resumption of US military aid to Taiwan signals that the Trump administration will continue policies toward Taipei that Beijing views as very provocative.

China's 6th Gen Warplanes Set To Outgun USAF - It was December 26th, 2024 – Chairman Mao’s Birthday – when a pair of unmarked, unidentified warplane screamed across the skies above Chengdu, a city that hosts the factory of the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation that is known to be currently working on a new fighter jet. Tentatively being called the J-36 and J-XX, (no official names exist) these are believed to be 6th generation warplanes, or at least “next generation”. What generation is China on that these would be from the “next?” The current J-20 is generally referred to as having the speed, stealth, integration, payload, and maneuverability of a 5th generation fighter jet – equivalent to the US Air Force’s F-35.In that case, one might call these 6th generation, although US strategists admit that China tends to favor greater incrementalism in its military development, compared to the Air Force, which prefers to produce larger advances across longer time spans, and so maybe it’s more appropriate to call it 5.5th generation.Either way, with the F-35 already being the most expensive conventional weapon system ever produced for the Pentagon while still suffering several technical and performance issues, the chance is greater than not that the US has officially fallen behind in combat aircraft technology.Although perhaps not, since no information on the J-36 or J-XX is officially available. What is available comes from observations mostly, by a group referred to as the “PLA watching community”. Some of these folks are more assertive than others. Journalist and PLA watcher Rick Joe takes a middle ground, calling the J-36 and J-XX “genuine competition” vis-à-vis the Pentagon, while also admitting that the PLA watching community’s predictions of the appearance and nature of these two aircraft have been remarkably on point.Joe describes these aircraft as something more than a “fighter” or a “bomber” and more like a “high performance, weaponized command platform,” or an “aerial destroyer,” referencing naval warship classification.Joe lists the “credible” descriptions of the aircraft as one with “significantly greater combat radius, superior and omnidirectional signature reduction, significantly greater power generation with sensor and [energy weapon] capabilities,” and possessing of a larger internal weapons bay long enough to potentially host the long-range air-to-air PLA missile known as the PL-17.Another writer, Rathindra Kuruwita, cites sources which claim the operational range of the J-36 and J-XX will be 1,800 miles, allowing it to reach the US outposts of Guam and Diego Garcia in the Pacific. Kuruwita reports that Chinese analysis of the F-35 finds that it is too small to accommodate the power demand associated with integrated warfighting, and as such the J-36 contains three engines in its tailless, diamond shape platformthat’s much larger than the American plane which should make room for additional fuel to generate these power demands.It is designed, he writes at The Diplomat, to act as the central node in a system of unmanned capabilities like squadrons of combat drones hundreds of kilometers in advance of the aircraft, as well as high-powered radar, jamming and cyber weapons, and direct energy weapons.None of this has been demonstrated to observers, but is assumed based on statements and planning documents of what a future combat aircraft would look like, one which would be larger and heavier than modern craft – to which the double-wheel landing gear visible on the J-36 testifies.The War Zone speculates that these would possess a significant weapons payload for both air-to-air and air-to-ground, but less than a bomber.

Rubio, Musk clash at Trump Cabinet meeting: NYT - Secretary of State Marco Rubio clashed with tech billionaire and close Trump adviser Elon Musk during a contentious Cabinet meeting hosted by President Trump. Musk, the world’s richest person who helms six major companies, tore into Rubio, scolding the former senator for not firing much of the workforce at the State Department and that he is only “good on TV,” but barely for anything else, The New York Times reported Friday, citing interviews with five people with knowledge of the events. Rubio, privately, has been “furious” with Musk for some time, particularly after the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) set its sights on shuttering the U.S. Agency for International Development, the agency that administers billions of dollars of security, humanitarian and development assistance in more than 100 countries, the Times reported. During Thursday’s Cabinet meeting, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not attend, Rubio pushed back. The secretary of State contended that Musk was not telling the truth. He asked if more than 1,500 State Department workers who went into early retirement should be brought back only to be fired in order to count as layoffs, the newspaper reported. After the increasingly heated back-and-forth, Trump stepped in to defend Rubio. The president praised the nation’s top diplomat for doing a “great job” and said he is dealing with a loaded schedule, packed with media appearances and still has to oversee the State Department, the Times reported. Trump was asked about the explosive report Friday. He denied that Rubio and Musk went at it and praised both for doing a good job. Fox Business Network host Charles Payne said the apparent decline in consumer spending was “shocking” on Friday, and he claimed a return to “boom times” was not on the horizon.“A couple of days ago, Bank of America came out with their credit card data, and it was scary. I mean, a shocking decline in restaurants, airlines, lodging,” Payne said on Fox Business Network’s “Mornings With Maria.”“Just look at the most recent poll on people who say they’re going to go traveling in the next few months, and it’s plunged,” he added.The Commerce Department on Feb. 28 released data showing consumers in January slashed their spending by 0.2 percent from December, the most since February 2021.“I think the boom times are over. All the free money has been spent,” Payne told anchor Maria Bartiromo.Earlier in the segment, he said tariffs have traditionally been associated with big booms, referencing the 1920s, which was marked by Republican dominance under former President McKinley, and is often cited by President Trump.Payne said the Federal Reserve should lighten up on interest rates to increase the number of consumers who are actively able to make purchases.“This is why I have a problem … with the Federal Reserve and interest rates, because if they look at aggregate data, it looks great,” he said. “But the problem is 10 percent are doing 50 percent of the buying. And everyone else is struggling because of higher rates. It’s a no-win situation.”

Pentagon: $80M in savings found in initial DOGE scrutiny -- The Pentagon, in initial work with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has found some $80 million in what it’s deemed wasteful spending, according to the building’s top spokesperson. In a video posted to X Monday evening, Press Secretary Sean Parnell read from an unreleased list detailing funding devoted largely to diversity, equity and inclusion programs and climate change research. “This stuff is not a core function of our military. . . . This is a distraction,” he said. “We believe that these initial findings will probably save $80 million in wasteful spending.” Among the targeted initiatives was $1.9 million for DEI training in the Air Force, $6 million to the University of Montana to “strengthen American democracy by bridging divides,” $3.5 million at the Defense Human Resources Activity for support to DEI groups, and $1.6 million to the University of Florida “to study social and institutional detriments of vulnerability and resilience to climate hazards” in the African Sahel, Parnell said. He added that Monday’s actions are “just the start,” with more to come this week. Since its formation, DOGE has aimed to reduce expenditures within federal government agencies and slash the civil servant workforce. But critics have said the alleged savings have been grossly overblown, with inaccurate data on its digital “wall of receipts.”

Pentagon orders thousands more troops to southern border -The Pentagon is sending up to 5,050 additional troops to the U.S.-Mexico border even as unlawful border crossings have sharply fallen in recent weeks. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered a Stryker brigade combat team (SBCT) and a general support aviation battalion to “bolster military support in securing the U.S. – Mexico border,” Pentagon press secretary Sean Parnell said in a statement Saturday. Each SBCT consists of approximately 4,400 soldiers, while the aviation battalion has roughly 650 troops. The forces will arrive along the nearly 2,000-mile border in the coming weeks, the official added. They did not say where the troops would be sent specifically. This deployment comes after President Trump, immediately upon entering office in January, declared a national emergency at the southern border and signed a number of executive orders intended to crack down on illegal crossings. As part of the effort, he has turned to the military to bolster security in the region, fly migrants out of the United States and house them at bases. Trump had already ordered 1,600 Marines to the border in January, joining 2,500 service members already there prior to the new Trump administration. ' The newest deployment could swell the number of service members on the ground at the border to just less than 10,000.

Pentagon orders 3,000 more troops, including Stryker combat brigade, to US-Mexico border - Under the pretext of a non-existent “invasion” of immigrants, President Donald Trump has ordered the further deployment of thousands of armed, combat-ready US military forces along the US-Mexico border. Over the weekend, fascist Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ordered an additional 3,000 active-duty US Army soldiers to be sent to the border, on top of the already 1,600 soldiers and 2,500 Marines announced last month. Troops are currently deployed throughout the Southwest United States, including in the states of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. Posting on his X account Saturday, Hegseth wrote “We are dead serious about 100% OPERATIONAL CONTROL of the southern border.” US Northern Command announced on Saturday that the bulk of the soldiers (2,400) deploying will be from the 2nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, from Fort Carson, Colorado. The Stryker is an eight-wheeled, 20-ton infantry combat vehicle and troop carrier. “Tasks” for the Stryker teams, according to the military, include “detection and monitoring; administrative support; transportation support; warehousing and logistic support; vehicle maintenance; and engineering support.” As of now, Army personnel “will not conduct or be involved in interdiction or deportation operations,” according to the military. Stryker combat teams were first deployed in November 2003 during the invasion of Iraq and have also been deployed to Afghanistan as part of the US’s “global war on terror.” The Biden administration also provided the Ukrainian military Stryker vehicles to assist in the Kursk incursion last year. Stryker combat teams have also previously deployed to the southern border during the Obama administration in 2012. A US Army Stryker combat vehicle. The eight-wheeled infantry transport vehicle was first deployed in November 2003 during the invasion of Iraq. [Photo: Spc. Tin Vuong] Other units deploying to the border, the military confirmed on Saturday, include 500 soldiers from the 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade from Fort Stewart, Georgia and propagandists from the 19th Public Affairs Detachment out of Fort Riley, Kansas. According to the military, the latest deployments will bring the total number of soldiers on the border to “approximately 9,000.” The militarization of the US-Mexico border is part of the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to prepare for the deployment of the US military domestically against all political opposition to the policies of the financial oligarchy. Since his inauguration, Trump has issued a flurry of executive orders attacking the democratic rights of the entire working class, including those with or without “papers.”On the same day the latest troop deployment was announced, Trump signed an executive order declaring English the “official” language of the United States. Seeking to whip up racists in his base and divide the working class, the first sentence of the order falsely declares: “From the founding of our Republic, English has been used as our national language.” As a matter of fact, throughout the nearly 250-year history of the United States, there has been no “national” language designated by the US government, English or otherwise. The founders did not include an English provision in the US Constitution and according to a 2019 US Census Bureau report, almost 1 in 5 people, or nearly 68 million in the United States speak a language other than English at home, nearly triple the 23.1 million the agency recorded in 1980. The racist and chauvinist order is not only a symptom of the vast cultural and social decline in the United States, but part of the broader attack on any and all social services provided by the US government. Trump’s order lays the groundwork for banning all multi-lingual services and government communication, leaving non-English speakers unable to communicate with government officials or agencies.

State Department to crackdown on immigration with new visa restrictions on foreign officials -- The State Department unveiled visa restrictions on foreign government officials who are thought to be responsible for aiding illegal immigration into the U.S., part of a wider effort by President Trump’s administration to crackdown on immigration. The new visa-restriction policy, which was releasedon Wednesday, will apply to foreign officials, including customs and immigration officials, and port authority and airports officials who are deemed culpable for bolstering illegal immigration into the U.S., according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The visa bans would be imposed on foreign officials for “failure to enforce immigration laws or establishing and implementing policies and practices that knowingly facilitate the transit of aliens intending to illegally immigrate into the United States via the U.S. southwest border.” “Securing our nation’s borders is critically important to making America safer, stronger, and more prosperous,” Rubio said in a statement on Wednesday. “Countries along migratory routes must do their part to prevent and deter the transit of aliens seeking to illegally enter the United States.” Rubio said this measure will be enforced “until those officials take responsibility for ensuring there are policies in place and existing laws are enforced to prevent the transit of such individuals.” “America will not back down when it comes to defending our national security interests,” he added. The visa bans are part of the administration’s focus on enforcing security at the southern border and barring illegal immigration into the country, something Trump heavily campaigned on during the 2024 presidential election. The restrictions, according to Rubio, will “complement” the department’s 3C policy, which was expanded last year and applies to individuals in the private sector “who knowingly provide transportation and travel services designed primarily for illegal aliens traveling to the United States,” according to the State Department.

GOP lawmaker says she will criminally refer 4 Democratic mayors to DOJ - Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) told four Democratic mayors before the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that she would criminally refer them to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for upholding sanctuary city policies on Wednesday. “To me after this line of questioning, it’s very clear that these policies that you have all implicated are active and alive and well in your cities are in direct violation with Title 8, U.S.C. § 1324 and is a federal offense,” Luna said, referring to a federal law that prohibits bringing in and harboring migrants without legal status. “You all speak about a broken immigration system and yet here you guys are aiding and abetting in that entire process,” she continued. “I do not think you guys are bad people but I think you are ideologically misled which is why, unfortunately based on your responses, I’m going to be criminally referring you to the Department of Justice for investigation, and as soon as I leave here, these will be going over to [Attorney General] Pam Bondi.” “If you guys continue doing what you’re doing, you’re not going to help anyone,” she said, adding that she was not doing this to “bully” the mayors, but believed the policies were hurting the American people. A criminal referral is a formal notice to the DOJ that a lawmaker or committee believes criminal conduct may have taken place, but it does not mean the DOJ will open an investigation. Luna made the remarks at a House Oversight Committee hearing featuring Boston Mayor Michelle Wu (D), New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D), Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) and Denver Mayor Mike Johnston (D). All four cities are considered sanctuary cities.

State Department To Use AI To Revoke Visas of Students Who 'Appear Pro-Hamas' - Secretary of State Marco Rubio is launching an AI-driven effort to revoke the visas of foreigners in the US who “appear pro-Hamas” in a crackdown targeting pro-Palestine protests on college campuses, Axiosreported on Thursday.The report said the effort will involve AI-assisted reviews of social media accounts of tens of thousands of foreign students in the US on visas that will look for “evidence of alleged terrorist sympathies expressed after Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.”The language in the report suggests that any foreign students who attend pro-Palestine demonstrations or express sympathy for Palestinians online could be swept up in the crackdown since opponents of the Israeli siege on Gaza or US military support for Israel are often labeled “pro-Hamas.”Civil liberty groups have strongly criticized President Trump’s promises to deport foreign students who attend pro-Palestine protests since the speech of foreigners inside the US is supposed to be protected under the First Amendment.“If we open the door to expelling foreign students who peacefully express ideas out of step with the current administration about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we should expect it to swing wider to encompass other viewpoints too,” Sarah McLaughlin, senior scholar at the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), said in an op-ed for MSNBC in January.“Today it may be alleged ‘Hamas sympathizers’ facing threats of deportation for their political expression. Who could it be in four years? In eight?” McLaughlin added.Abed Ayoub, head of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, told Axios that Americans won’t like the State Department’s effort because they’ll view it as “capitulating free speech rights for a foreign nation.”The new State Department project is part of a broader administration effort against protests that are critical of Israel, which includes threats from President Trump that universities that allow what he called “illegal protests” would lose federal funding. The Department of Justice also launched a new task force investigating alleged incidents of “antisemitism” on college campuses.

Donald Trump offers expedited citizenship to South African farmers - President Trump is offering an expedited pathway to U.S. citizenship to some South African farmers, calling their treatment in the country “terrible.”“They are confiscating their LAND and FARMS, and MUCH WORSE THAN THAT,” he wrote in a Friday morning post on Truth Social.Trump signed an executive order last month halting federal aid to South Africa over property laws he said impose “unjust racial discrimination” against white Afrikaner farmers.“To go a step further, any Farmer (with family!) from South Africa, seeking to flee that country for reasons of safety, will be invited into the United States of America with a rapid pathway to Citizenship,” he wrote Friday. “This process will begin immediately!”He didn’t provide additional details about the immediate plan, but Trump wrote in his February order that the U.S. would “promote the resettlement of Afrikaner refugees escaping government-sponsored race-based discrimination, including racially discriminatory property confiscation” and directed his Secretaries of State and Homeland Security to prioritize their resettlement through the United States Refugee Admissions Program.”Afrikaners are a white predominantly Dutch ethnic group that makes up less than 7 percent of South Africa’s total population.

Peter Navarro says Canada 'has been taken over ... by Mexican cartels' - Peter Navarro, a senior trade adviser to President Trump, said Wednesday that Canada has been “taken over” by Mexican cartels as tensions between the countries are on the rise over Trump-imposed tariffs seeking to crack down on fentanyl entering the U.S. “What I want to say to every world leader who gets up in arms when all we’re asking for is fairness and to have them stop killing our people is, ‘Please, listen to us.’” Canada could do a lot more,” Navarro said, discussing drug flow into the U.S. on Fox News’s “Special Report” with anchor Bret Baier. “Canada has been taken over, Bret, by Mexican cartels,” he continued as highlighted by Mediaite.Navarro’s comments come amid tensions between Canada and the U.S. over tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on the country’s northern neighbor and Mexico alongside an extra 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods. The president pointed to frustration over the stream of fentanyl into the U.S., but experts have previously noted that a relatively small amount enters the country via its northern border.Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has been very vocal in his opposition to Trump’s tariffs, said Tuesday he was hopeful the tariff fight between his country and the U.S. will end within days.. “I hope it stops within the next few days. … And I’m not just saying that,” Ford told NewsNation’s Blake Burman on “The Hill.” “It will be an absolute disaster for both countries, and people will be unemployed, plants will shut down, assembly lines will shut down and inflation’s going to happen within days,” he continued later. “So this is unfortunate. One person’s responsible, and that’s President Trump.”

Trump says no more deals: Tariffs set to hit Canada, Mexico - President Trump said Monday that the 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico will officially go into effect Tuesday, announcing there is no room for dealmaking to delay them again. “The tariffs, they’re all set. They go into effect tomorrow,” he said, adding there’s “no room left for Mexico or Canada” to make a deal before midnight. Trump had warned last week that the tariffs will go forward after he delayed them for a month following conversations with the Canadian and Mexican leaders, during which they agreed to action to address the flow of drugs at the border.Trump said Monday that “vast amounts of fentanyl got poured into our country” largely through Mexico and from China, and he encouraged car manufacturers to build plants in the U.S. to avoid the upcoming ariffs.“So, what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs,” Trump said Monday.The president also announced that reciprocal tariffs will start April 2, which will cover imports from all nations that levy import taxes on U.S. goods.“Reciprocal tariffs start on April 2. And I wanted to make it April 1, but I didn’t want to do it, I didn’t want to go April Fool’s Day, because that … costs a lot of money … so we’re going April 2,” Trump quipped.Trump said on Truth Social earlier Monday that tariffs on “external” agricultural products will be imposed early April.“To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!” he said.The stock market took a hit after Trump’s announcements on tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 700 points after Trump’s announcement.The president also suggested Monday that the 10 percent tariffs on China could increase to 20 percent. When Trump delayed the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he had imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports over the issue of fentanyl production, and China responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

Ontario leader Doug Ford threatens to cut off US energy if Trump tariffs imposed --Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Monday he is prepared to cut off electricity exports to the U.S. if President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods go through. “If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything — including cut off their energy with a smile on my face,” Ford told reporters at a mining convention in downtown Toronto, the Toronto Sun reported. Ford doubled down on his pledge to retaliate by matching tariffs, noting the U.S. is a major customer of Canada’s electricity. “They rely on our energy. They need to feel the pain. They want to come at us hard, we’re going to come back twice as hard,” he said. The Sun reported Ford said he would go dollar-for-dollar in matching tariffs: “That’s exactly what we’re going to do.” Ford suggested the federal and provincial governments are unified in their approach to fighting U.S. tariffs. “The provinces have a big say in it, but it’s the federal government that’s leading the charge, and we’re going to stand shoulder-to-shoulder no matter who’s in the federal government.

Trump Says 25% Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Will Take Effect on Tuesday - President Trump has said that the US will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, saying there’s “no room left” for the two countries to avoid the measures. Trump signed an executive order on February 1 to impose the 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico and Canada with a carve-out for Canadian oil, which will be hit with a 10% tariff. Trump paused the tariffs for 30 days after speaking with the leaders of Canada and Mexico, who both pledged to work to stem the flow of fentanyl and migrants entering the US. But Trump said on Monday that drugs were still “pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels.” Reducing the flow of fentanyl into the US is extremely difficult since its high potency means traffickers can smuggle massive numbers of doses in small, hard-to-detect packages.Trump also wants to use the tariffs to pressure companies to manufacture in the US and to reduce the trade deficits between the US and its trading partners. He has previously acknowledged the tariffs will cause “pain” for Americans since they will increase domestic prices. Canada has said it’s ready to hit the US with retaliatory tariffs right away, and Mexico is vowing it will respond as well. Last month, Trump alsoimposed a 10% tariff on China and said that it would increase by another 10% on Tuesday.

Donald Trump threatens tariffs on Canada dairy, lumber as soon as Friday President Trump said his administration could impose reciprocal tariffs on Canada for dairy products and lumber as early as Friday amid a mounting trade war between the two nations. Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, complained about Canada’s steep tariffs on dairy products and lumber imported from the U.S. The president claimed Canada is charging Americans a tariff of more than 200 percent on dairy products and a “tremendously high tariff” on lumber exports. “They make it impossible for us to sell lumber or dairy products into Canada. But our numbers are a tiny fraction of that. Almost nonexistent,” Trump said. “They’ll be met with the exact same tariff unless they drop it,” Trump added. “And that’s what reciprocal means. And we may do it as early as today, or we’ll wait till Monday or Tuesday, but that’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to charge the same thing. It’s not fair.” Trump told reporters his administration was loosening environmental regulations “on an emergency basis” to allow more trees to be cut down in order to create more domestic lumber supply. Access to dairy and lumber markets have long been two of the biggest points of contention in the otherwise strong economic relationship between the U.S. and Canada. Up Next - Democratic leaders bash GOP's spending plan: 'Not acceptable' The president’s remarks are the latest salvo in what has been a back-and-forth trade dispute between the United States and its neighbor to the north. Trump in February announced 25 percent tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada. Those were delayed until this week and went into effect Tuesday, prompting retaliatory tariffs from Canada. But Trump has since announced exemptions for car parts and goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement signed in 2020.

GOP senator says Trump tariffs hurting constituents -- Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) signaled Thursday that President Trump’s threat to levy tariffs on key trading partners of the U.S. is hurting his constituents. “Almost every industry in Kentucky has come to me and said, ‘It will hurt our industry and push up prices of homes, cars,’ and so, I’m going to continue to argue against tariffs,” Paul said late Thursday in an interview with CNN. His concern echoes that of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who urged the administration to be “smart” about levying additional taxes and reciprocal tariffs. Tillis argued the U.S. has “more leverage” than any other nation, but not “all the leverage.” “When we start losing, you back off,” he said, according to a clip highlighted by Mediaite. “There’s such a thing as strategic retreat.” Their comments come after Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) also criticized the Trump administration’s policies around tariffs, suggesting he is “worried.” “I think President Trump on economics and otherwise is doing very well, but you remember the old saying: ‘The danger of rising high is that the air gets thin.’ I’m worried about the tariffs,” Kennedy told Fox Business’s Larry Kudlow on Thursday.

‘Bear with me,’ Trump says as both farmers and consumers brace for tariff effects (AP) — Farmers and meat producers across the U.S. can expect the new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China and the retaliatory action from those countries to hurt their bottom lines by billions of dollars if they stay in place a while, and consumers could quickly see higher prices for produce and ground beef. But some of the impact on farmers might not be felt until the next harvest and some products might actually get cheaper in the short run for consumers if exports suffer. And the price of corn, wheat and soybeans accounts for relatively little of the price of most products. Plus, President Donald Trump could offer farmers significant aid payments, as he did during the trade war with China during his first administration, to offset some of the losses. In his address to Congress Tuesday night, Trump argued that agricultural imports hurt American farmers and asked them to “bear with me again” as he seeks to protect them. He didn’t mention any additional aid. “I love the farmer,” he said. If the tariffs make farmers uneasy about investing in expensive tractors and consumers worry so much about groceries that they cut other spending, that would hurt the economy overall and could even lead to a recession. And consumers were already worried about record egg prices amid a bird flu outbreak. “Exactly how strong our economy is over time has a lot to do with U.S. consumers’ comfort with continuing to go out to restaurants and continuing to buy washers and dryers and just that general activity. And a lot of what we’re talking about here is probably going to slow some of that,” said Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University. The situation has some farmers stocking up on equipment and supplies in preparation for prices to go up, but it’s not like they can easily buy all their fertilizer ahead of time. And consumers might have a hard time stockpiling perishable products like avocados and ground beef.

Trudeau says US tariff war to drag on, Bessent calls him a 'numbskull' (Reuters) - Canada will be in a trade war with the United States for the foreseeable future, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday, speaking shortly before U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called him "a numbskull".Trudeau said Canada would continue to engage with senior Trump administration officials about tariffs Washington says it will impose on Canadian imports, reiterating that his goal was to get the measures removed."I can confirm that we will continue to be in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future," he told reporters in Ottawa.Canada immediately imposed 25% tariffs on C$30 billion of U.S. imports and Trudeau said those measures would remain in place until the Trump administration ended its trade action.Bessent made clear the administration's unhappiness, telling an event in New York that "If you want to be a numbskull like Justin Trudeau and say 'Oh we're going to do this', then tariffs are going to go up".In response, a Canadian government source said Washington was upset because Ottawa had retaliated.Trudeau and Trump, who accuses Canada of not doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants across the border, held a 50-minutephone conversation on Wednesday."It was a colorful call. It was also a very substantive call," said Trudeau, adding that the two sides were in talks but had nothing to announce yet."We are ... trying to make sure that these tariffs don't overly harm, certainly in the short term, certain sectors."One topic of conversation is Canada possibly delaying a second round of 25% tariffs on a further C$125 billion of U.S. imports, due to come into effect in less than three weeks.Trump will exempt automakers from tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month as long as they comply with existing free trade rules, the White House said on Wednesday."Any carve outs that support any workers in Canada, even if it's just one industry or another, are going to be a good thing," said Trudeau.The Canadian prime minister will step down once the ruling Liberal Party chooses a new leader this Sunday. He has generally had poor relations with Trump and took a swipe at the president, who first made a name for himself as a real estate mogul."A win-lose between us would actually be worse for them than a win-win. That's true in international trade, in relations between nation states," he said."It perhaps is not true in real estate deals, (where) a win-lose is probably better for someone who is experienced in business deals than a win-win," he said.

White House Delays Canada, Mexico Automaker Tariffs For One Month Amid Trump-Trudeau Deadlock - The Trump administration is considering giving automakers a one-month reprieve from newly imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, after administration officials met Tuesday to discuss the matter with the heads of Ford, GM and Stellantis, Bloomberg reports, citing anonymous officials.The major Detroit automakers have aggressively sought to halt or revise Trump's tariffs over concerns that they would have potentially catastrophic effects. (so, make your cars in the US?)According to carmakers and experts cited, a rise in costs from the 25% tariffs imposed on US neighbors this week could send car prices skyrocketing by thousands of dollars almost immediately - and seize up supply chains.In recent days, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has hinted that there may be some carve-out exceptions to the initial tariffs - telling BBG television that the changes could be announced on Wednesday, including a potential reprieve for the auto sector in order to buy time to come up with plans to move both investments and production to the US. Update (1415ET): It's official, President Trump is exempting automakers from newly imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month, the White House said Wednesday."We are going to give a one month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA," said WH spox Caroline Leavitt, referring to the trade deal negotiated with Canada and Mexico in Trump's first term."Reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect on April, 2, but at the request of the companies associated with USMCA, the president is giving them an exemption for one month so they are not at an economic disadvantage." As noted below, the announcement came after administration officials met Tuesday to discuss the matter with the heads of Ford, GM and Stellantis.As the Epoch Times noted earlier, following a phone call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to discuss recently imposed tariffs, President Donald Trump said he told the Canadian leader there hasn’t been enough done to stem the flow of fentanyl. Trump also accused Trudeau of using the tariff issue to “stay in power.”Trump discussed his phone call with Trudeau in two posts made on his Truth Social platform on the afternoon of March 5.“Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs,” Trump wrote. “I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped.” Trump also wrote that the call ended in a “’somewhat' friendly manner,” while also accusing Trudeau of using the tariff issue to hold onto power in his final days in office.“He was unable to tell me when the Canadian Election is taking place, which made me curious, like, what’s going on here? I then realized he is trying to use this issue to stay in power,” Trump said.Trump’s social media posts came amid comments earlier that day from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who said he would announce a change to the tariffs policy. “He’s going to come up with a plan this afternoon, we’re going to announce that plan,” Lutnick told Bloomberg on March 5. Repeating comments made the previous day, Lutnick mentioned finding some “middle” ground on tariffs with Canada and Mexico.“There’s going to be 25 percent tariffs,” Lutnick clarified. “It’s not the ’middle' as in a number. I think it’s a middle in terms of USMCA [or] not USMCA,” suggesting items covered by the free trade deal between the countries would receive a different tariff treatment. ‘

Trump tariffs: U.S. pauses tariffs on some Canadian, Mexican imports until April 2 - It has been a week of retaliatory actions, warnings of price hikes from businesses and wild price swings in the markets. Investors and business leaders, on edge about an escalating trade war, continue to monitor fast-paced headlines from the Trump administration. Here's the latest:

• President Donald Trump granted temporary tariff exemptions for Canadian and Mexican goods covered by the North American trade agreement known as USMCA until April 2.
• About 50% of Mexican imports and 38% of Canadian imports are covered by the trade agreement, according to a White House official.
• Trump is poised to enact "reciprocal tariffs" April 2 on foreign nations that have import taxes on U.S. goods.
• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico should be spared when such reciprocal tariffs come into effect. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his goal remains to get "all tariffs removed."
• Thursday's tariff exceptions excluded those imposed on China. The country is standing tough, saying it's prepared to fight "any type of war" with the U.S.

Trump's tariffs will still apply to about 50% of Mexican imports and more than 60% Canadian goods.The president's exemptions apply only to goods that are compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the deal negotiated during Trump's first term that governs trade in North America.A White House official told CNBC that only about 50% of Mexican imports and 38% of Canadian imports are USMCA compliant.

Donald Trump delays tariffs on Mexican imports covered by free trade deal --President Trump said Thursday he is delaying for roughly one month tariffs on Mexican imports that are covered under a North American trade agreement signed during his first term.Trump posted on Truth Social that goods that fall under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be exempted from a 25 percent tariff he imposed this week on imports from Mexico and Canada. The delay will last until April 2, at which point Trump has pledged to impose reciprocal tariffs on all nations that have duties on U.S. imports.“I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President Sheinbaum,” Trump posted, noting he had spoken with the Mexican president. “Our relationship has been a very good one, and we are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl. Thank you to President Sheinbaum for your hard work and cooperation!”Trump signed the USMCA in 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement. The exemption announced Thursday would apply to Mexican imports that meet certain requirements under the USMCA, chiefly that they are products made in North America.There was no indication of whether Canada would be granted a similar reprieve.Trump on Tuesday imposed 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods. He cited frustration over the flow of fentanyl into the United States, though experts have noted relatively little fentanyl enters the country through the northern border in particular.

OPM strips language saying response to emails is 'explicitly voluntary' - The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) quietly updated a privacy impact assessment on its efforts to email all federal workers, stripping language indicating responses from the staffers were “explicitly voluntary.” The Friday update came ahead of a second email spearheaded by Elon Musk demanding federal workers provide a list of five bullet points recapping what they accomplished in the week prior. OPM prepared a privacy impact assessment after it was sued for its creation of a database of federal employees using the hr@opm.gov email. Now gone is language indicating employees have no obligation to respond to the weekly accomplishment emails, while leaving unclear whether failure to do so will be taken as a “resignation,” as Musk has previously said. “Individual federal government employees can decline to provide information by not responding to the email. The consequences for failure to provide the requested information will vary depending on the particular email at issue,” the document states. The document still concludes that “there is a risk that individuals will not know their information is being collected, maintained, and distributed through the [government-wide email system].” Kel McClanahan, an attorney representing multiple government employees who sued over the email distribution system citing privacy concerns, criticized OPM for the shift. “While one might commend OPM for officially acknowledging that it blatantly misrepresented the facts to the public and a federal judge about the ‘voluntariness’ of responses to these mass emails, nobody should lose sight of the fact that OPM blatantly misrepresented the facts to the public and a federal judge,” he said in a statement to The Hill. “Quietly editing an official document while loudly proclaiming that there is nothing to see here is hardly commendable.”

Hegseth calls for DOD civilian employees to comply with OPM email directive --Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Sunday he is now directing all department civilian employees to respond to emails from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) asking for a recap of what they did the week prior. “I am now directing each member of the department’s civilian workforce — just civilian — to provide those five bullets on what they accomplished in their specific jobs last week,” Hegseth said in a video posted to social media. “To reply to that email and CC their immediate supervisor.” “It’s a simple task, really, as Elon [Musk] said, as the president recognized in our first Cabinet meeting, just a pulse check — ‘Are you there out?’ — to DOD civilians,” Hegseth continued. Hegseth said in the video that the Department of Defense (DOD) civilian workforce would soon get a second email outlining next steps “that they need to take in order to comply with this initiative.” Pentagon officials initially instructed employees not to respond to the first OPM email sent on Feb. 22, but Hegseth said that was only a temporary pause to allow for “a review of Pentagon procedures and consultation with the Office of Personal Management.” He noted the department deals with sensitive issues and with matters of national security, so “we needed to be careful on that front.”

Fort Benning to honor different man after name change -The Pentagon will change the name of the Georgia military base Fort Moore back to Fort Benning, formerly named after a Confederate general, though this time it will honor a different man. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday signed a memorandum to restore the name of the Army base to Fort Benning after it was renamed Fort Moore in May 2023, one of nine military installations honoring Confederate generals that Congress mandated be changed. Hegseth said the new moniker pays tribute to Cpl. Fred G. Benning, who was awarded the Distinguished Service Cross for his actions during World War I while serving with the U.S. Army in France in 1918. The base was originally named for Lt. Gen. Henry Benning, a Confederate general who opposed freeing slaves.“This change underscores the installation’s storied history of service to the United States of America, honors the warfighter ethos, and recognizes the heroes who have trained at the installation for decades and will continue to train on its storied ranges,” the Pentagon said in a statement.Hegseth’s order further fulfills a campaign pledge by President Trump, who vowed to revert bases back to their original names.The Pentagon in February switched the North Carolina military base Fort Liberty back to Fort Bragg. In that case, Private First Class Roland Bragg, a decorated World War II veteran, was chosen as the namesake, in lieu of Braxton Bragg, another Confederate general.

Senior USAID official put on leave after memo contradicting Rubio on aid == A top U.S. International Agency for Development (USAID) official has been put on leave after he released a memo that slammed the Trump administration’s moves to cut aid and said they will cause “preventable death.”USAID has been heavily targeted by the second Trump administration. Nearly all foreign aid spending from the agency was cut, sending the global health community into chaos, with thousands of humanitarian aid workers losing their jobs.Nick Enrich, the USAID official, said in a memo to his colleagues that the agency has been unable to implement “lifesaving humanitarian assistance” after Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a pause on aid, NBC News reported. “This will no doubt results in preventable death, destabilization, and threats to national security on a massive scale,” Enrich said in the memo.Rubio issued a waiver in late January exempting “life-saving humanitarian assistance” from the foreign aid freeze, but those working on the ground say crucial operations are still ground to a halt.Enrich sent the memo to staff Friday in his capacity as USAID Global Health acting assistant administratorHe criticized the Trump administration and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which have slashed thousands of jobs and essential programs at various agencies including USAID.

US ends funding for thousands of global health programs --The U.S. government has ended funding for some 5,800 global health programs, cutting off critical support for projects that provide vaccines, life-saving medications and emergency health care to millions of people globally.The move came in a wave of emails from the U.S. State Department that began Feb. 26.The emails informed thousands of health groups, refugee camps, tuberculosis clinics and polio vaccination projects that their funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) had been terminated, according to a report from The New York Times."This award is being terminated for convenience and the interest of the U.S. government," the notice read. The cuts affect a wide range of programs—from HIV treatment and malaria prevention in Africa to maternal health care in Nepal. "People will die, but we will never know, because even the programs to count the dead are cut," said Dr. Catherine Kyobutungi, executive director of the African Population and Health Research Center.The New York Times confirmed that major projects that are now canceled due to the funding cut include:

• $131 million grant to UNICEF's polio immunization program, which funded planning, logistics and vaccine delivery for millions of children.
• $90 million malaria prevention contract that provided bed nets, malaria tests and treatments for 53 million people.
• A project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which ran the only water source for 250,000 displaced people living in conflict zones.
• All operating costs for the Global Drug Facility, along with 10% of the drug budget for the world's largest tuberculosis medication supply program, serving nearly 3 million people, including 300,000 kids last year.
• HIV care and treatment projects in Lesotho, Tanzania and Eswatini run by the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation, which serves 350,000 people, including 10,000 children and 10,000 pregnant women receiving care to prevent HIV transmission to newborns.
• A project in Uganda to identify contacts of people with Ebola, conduct surveillance and bury those who died from the virus.
• A $34 million medical supply management contract in Kenya.
• Eighty-seven shelters in South Africa, supporting 33,000 women who survived rape and domestic violence.
• Community health program in Yemen that identified malnourished children.
• Pre- and postnatal health services in Nepal that provided care for 3.9 million children and 5.7 million women.
• A program in six West African nations run by Helen Keller International that provided medicine to more than 35 million people to prevent and treat neglected topical diseases.
• Severe acute malnutrition treatment project in Nigeria, serving 5.6 million children and 1.7 million women. As a result, 77 health facilities have stopped treating kids who are severely malnourished, putting 60,000 under 5 at immediate risk of death.
• Health clinics in Sudan, cutting off all health services in one of the largest areas in the Kordofan region.
• Malnutrition and maternal health project in Bangladesh serving 144,000 people, providing food for malnourished pregnant women and vitamin A for kids.
• REACH Malaria program that provided malaria drugs to children, protecting more than 20 million people in 10 African countries.
• A Plan International program that provided medical supplies, nutrition support andclean water for 115,000 people displaced or affected by Ethiopian conflict.
• More than $80 million in funding for UNAIDS, supporting global HIV treatment programs, including data collection.
• A program of the President's Malaria Initiative that provided mosquito control in 21 countries.
• HIV and tuberculosis care program in Uganda, run by Baylor College of Medicine Children's Foundation, treating 46,000 people.
• Smart4TB research consortium, the leading global research group developing tuberculosis prevention, diagnostics and treatment strategies.
• Demographic and Health Surveys project, the main data collection program in 90 countries, providing vital data on maternal and child health, nutrition and more.

USAID cuts could send global health into chaos --The Trump administration’s decision to end almost all foreign aid spending from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is poised to plunge global health into chaos. The contract terminations announced Wednesday will end grants for HIV treatments and prevention, tuberculosis, polio, malaria, Ebola and numerous other diseases and conditions. Nutrition assistance programs for infants in developing countries have also been halted, organizations said. Nearly 5,800 projects funded by USAID have been terminated, ending the hope that contracts previously frozen might have been restarted. “This reckless and unilateral move will cost millions of lives around the world,” said the Global Health Council, an alliance of nonprofit organizations and companies that receive U.S. foreign aid funding, in a statement. “With the stroke of a pen, the U.S. government has gutted decades of progress in global health, development, and humanitarian aid — without due process, transparency, or good faith consideration of the consequences,” the council said. The Global Health Council is one of the nonprofits that have challenged a freeze on foreign aid. Shortly after taking office, the Trump administration suspended nearly all foreign assistance, saying the funds needed to undergo a 90-day review to ensure compliance with the administration’s policies. The freeze led to thousands of humanitarian workers losing their jobs and life-threatening delays in food and medicine to impoverished areas around the world. A few days later, the State Department issued stop work orders on foreign assistance funded by or through the State Department and USAID, including existing awards. The stop-work orders came without warning, sowing immediate chaos and confusion. The State Department then issued waivers to allow certain “lifesaving” programs, including the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), to continue. But the waivers were unevenly applied, and organizations granted waivers said they still weren’t being paid. International health groups said they were under the impression the waivers would continue to apply through the 90-day review period. “The chaos and confusion of the last four weeks we thought had reached a fever pitch but what happened [Wednesday] night takes this to a new dimension. Every project imaginable in HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, nutritional support, has now been terminated,” said Mitchell Warren, executive director of AVAC, an international nonprofit focused on HIV prevention and one of the plaintiffs in the effort to unfreeze funding. “The only strategy the administration seems to have is to sow chaos and confusion. There’s no effort to look at what aligns with foreign policy, diplomacy, partnerships. And no strategy to prepare for public health threats,” Warren said. But on Wednesday night, the administration said it had concluded a “a good-faith, individualized assessment” of USAID’s 6,300 grants in less than a month. “Secretary [of State Marco] Rubio has now made a final decision with respect to each award, on an individualized basis, affirmatively electing to either retain the award or terminate it pursuant to the terms of the instrument or independent legal authority as inconsistent with the national interests and foreign policy of the United States,” the administration said in a court filing. The State Department has said the agency spared critical awards for lifesaving medical treatment, including those that had been operating under a waiver from the earlier funding freeze, but health groups say that is not the case.

Supreme Court narrowly upholds 5-4 lower court order that USAID must pay bills --In a mild rebuke of the Donald Trump administration Wednesday, the Supreme Court upheld by 5-4 a lower court temporary restraining order (TRO) that requires “the Government to issue payments for ... work already completed” by contractors for the US Agency for International Development (USAID), most of which are non-profit corporations that provide various medical services overseas. Chief Justice John Roberts and Trump nominee Amy Coney Barrett joined the three moderates to vacate the stay Roberts had entered on February 25, thus allowing the TRO to finally take effect. The ruling cautioned the lower court, however, to “clarify what obligations the Government must fulfill to ensure compliance with the temporary restraining order, with due regard for the feasibility of any compliance timelines.” The one-paragraph “shadow docket” order was posted less than 12 hours after Trump patted Roberts on the back following Tuesday’s foul, fascistic diatribe to the joint session of Congress. As he gestured, Trump can be heard on video telling Roberts, “Thank you again, I won’t forget it,” an apparent reference to Roberts’s majority ruling last summer that granted Trump broad immunity from criminal charges arising from the January 6, 2021 coup attempt. Arch-reactionary Samuel Alito claimed to be “stunned” that a court would “compel the Government of the United States to pay out (and probably lose forever) 2 billion taxpayer dollars.” The openly corrupt Clarence Thomas and Trump nominees Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh joined Alito’s dissent, which hinged on the extreme theory that the Trump administration has “sovereign immunity,” shielding it from equitable claims based on services under contracts that predate the January 20 inauguration. What likely “stunned” Alito, and perhaps Trump as well, is that Roberts and Barrett dared take a position adverse to the Trump administration, however equivocal. Bringing to mind Trump’s notorious pattern of stiffing his contractors during his heyday as a real estate huckster, Alito called the Supreme Court’s refusal to stay the TRO “a most unfortunate misstep that rewards an act of judicial hubris and imposes a $2 billion penalty on American taxpayers.” Alito does not explain how compelling the government to pay for services rendered and products delivered by its contractors with money already allocated by Congress constitutes a “penalty.” Legal precedents suggest that paying contractual debts is an obligation, not punishment.

GOP senators tell Elon Musk that DOGE cuts will require their votes -- Republican senators told tech billionaire Elon Musk at a closed-door meeting Wednesday that his aggressive moves to shrink the federal government will need a vote on Capitol Hill, sending a clear message that he needs to respect Congress’s power of the purse. Musk met with Republican senators at a luncheon to give them an overview of his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) team’s work to root out waste, fraud and abuse across an array of federal programs. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who largely supports Musk’s mission, told him DOGE’s efforts to cut spending and reduce the federal workforce reductions won’t pass muster with the courts unless Congress codifies them by passing a spending rescission package. “To make it real, to make it go beyond the moment of the day, it needs to come back in the form of a rescission package,” Paul said after the meeting, pointing to 5-4 decision by the Supreme Court on Wednesday morning rejecting the Trump administration’s argument that billions of dollars in foreign aid should remain frozen. “I love all the stuff they’re doing, but we got to vote on it. My message to Elon was: Let’s get over the impoundment idea and let’s send it back as a rescission package,” he said. “Then, what we have to do is get to 51 senators or 50 senators” to vote “to cut the spending,” he added. “We talked a lot about, how do we make these things permanent? Rescission was a big part of the discussion.” Paul and other Republican senators said Musk appeared open to the idea but didn’t seem to expect DOGE’s cuts and workforce reductions would need to come back to Congress for ultimate approval.

Free-market advocates assemble coalition, at Trump’s request, for tax cuts - Free-market economics big wigs, acting on a request from President Trump, have assembled a coalition that aims to be the premier voice in the push to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent — and to do it as quickly as possible. Economists Stephen Moore and Arthur Laffer — key figures in crafting the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — along with publisher Steve Forbes are spearheading the Tax Cut Victory Alliance, a coalition of taxpayer groups, business groups, state organizations and activists that is urging Congress to permanently extend the cuts in Trump’s first 100 days. Public announcement of the group comes as financial markets took a tumble over the past few days in reaction to Trump’s promises to implement tariffs. But the coalition is an example of how free-marketers, even if they cringe at the tariffs, are largely putting those concerns aside as they boost Trump in hopes of quickly securing other tax and economic wins. “We keep stressing that, because of the recent weakness in the economy and the jitteriness of the stock market, that the sooner that this can get done, the better,” Moore told me in an interview. TO BE SURE, there are other organizations on the political right pushing for the tax cuts. I wrote last week about Americans for Prosperity’s Capitol Hill push, for instance. But the major names and groups in the Tax Cut Victory Alliance, already integrated with the White House and congressional leaders, could have the firepower to help keep momentum and get the cuts done sooner rather than later.

Federal judge rescinds probationary employee termination order - A federal judge on Thursday ordered the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to rescind memos that directed agencies across the federal government to fire probationary employees, finding they were likely unlawful. U.S. District Judge William Alsup said OPM must notify agencies it did not have the authority to call for the firing of those employees but stopped short of directing agencies themselves not to continue with terminations. The order only applies to agencies with ties to the plaintiffs in the case, but the judge urged the government to go a step further and notify other agencies as well. “(The) Office of Personnel Management does not have any authority whatsoever, under any statute in the history of the universe, to hire and fire employees within another agency,” Alsup said. “The agencies could thumb their nose at OPM if they wanted to,” he added. Alsup said he would release an opinion with further details in “due course.” An evidentiary hearing is expected next month, where the judge said he wanted OPM acting director Charles Ezell to testify.

Trump and Musk move towards privatization of Social Security with 7,000 job cuts -On Friday, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced the elimination of 7,000 jobs—more than 12 percent of the agency’s staff—as part of the Trump administration’s assault on the federal government workforce. In a news blog post, the SSA wrote: “The agency plans to reduce the size of its bloated workforce and organizational structure, with a significant focus on functions and employees who do not directly provide mission critical services.” The SSA announcement also said that “much of the staff reductions needed to reach the target of 50,000 will come from retirement, VSIP [voluntary separation incentive payment] and resignation.” However, SSA said the cuts will require, “reduction-in-force actions that could include abolishment of organizations and positions.” The announcement said the agency will close six of its 10 regional offices, adding, “SSA has operated with a regional structure consisting of 10 offices, which is no longer sustainable.” The regional offices provide support to SSA workers on the front lines who directly serve the 72.5 million Americans who are receiving benefits. There will also be an organizational restructuring of the SSA headquarters in Baltimore, Maryland, which the announcement called “outdated and inefficient.” This will include a reduction of the number of Deputy Commissioner-level organizations. Numerous experts have issued statements saying the job cuts threaten the agency’s fundamental operations and will be catastrophic for the public. Speaking to CNBC, former SSA Commissioner Martin O’Malley said that the actions, which are being implemented by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), are putting monthly benefit checks at risk. “Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said in an article published Saturday. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.” Other reports have shown that the agency is already at a 50-year low in staffing while the number of beneficiaries grows by 10,000 people daily. Appearing on Friday on the Joe Rogan podcast, Elon Musk repeated the falsehood that a search of the Social Security database showed, “there were 20 million dead people marked as alive.” He also claimed, “Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.” Coming from someone whose $400 billion fortune was amassed through cryptocurrency and stock market speculation, this is staggering hypocrisy. Sensing that Musk’s “Ponzi scheme” statement might trigger widespread opposition to the job cuts, leading congressional Democrats held a press conference on Monday afternoon. Senators Charles Schumer (New York), Ron Wyden (Oregon), Patty Murray (Washington) and Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) gave comments and attempted to conceal the role of Democrats in paving the way for Trump’s moves against Social Security. While the senators said they opposed the job cuts—Wyden even said that DOGE’s attack on Social Security was the first step on the path to privatization—they agreed with the premise of the Trump White House that efficiency and cost cutting was important. When asked by the press if the Democrats would insist on preventing the Social Security cuts as part of a deal to bring a funding bill up for a vote and avoid a government shutdown, Senator Murray said, “We are looking at a number of different things.” In other words, the Democrats are fully committed to working with Trump to eliminate every social program and gain by the working class in a century of struggle.

O'Malley: DOGE cuts could soon trigger Social Security system 'collapse' -- Martin O’Malley, the former commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA), said Monday the recent cuts made by tech billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) at the agency could result in the “collapse” of the Social Security system “within the next 30 to 90 days.” Malley, a Democrat who also served as Maryland governor from 2007-15, told CNBC the recent DOGE initiatives may jeopardize monthly benefit payments for over 72.5 million Americans. He warned the current administration’s attempts to reduce the workforce will lead to the departure of vital staff and threaten the agency’s fundamental operations. “Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” he said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.” Warning of these interruptions, Malley said, “people should start saving now.” Malley held the position of Social Security commissioner from December 2023 to November 2024 under the Biden administration. Bondi says she was misled on Epstein documents More than 73 million individuals, including 56 million elderly people, depend on the agency for their monthly benefit payments. Delayed or missed payments could create difficulties for recipients.

Social Security chief reverses course on ending contracts affecting Maine: ‘I apologize’ - Social Security Administration (SSA) acting Commissioner Lee Dudek on Friday reversed the agency’s decision to change how newborns in Maine receive their Social Security cards, apologizing for “an undue burden” on people in the state. “In retrospect, I realize that ending these contracts created an undue burden on the people of Maine, which was not the intent,” he said in a statement.“For that, I apologize and have directed that both contracts be immediately reinstated. EAB and EDR continue in place for every state and were not affected,” he added. The Enumeration at Birth (EAB) program enables parents to obtain a Social Security card for their newborn at the same time they register the birth, ending the need to collect documents and fill out an application separately.Dudek stopped short of explaining the reasoning behind the SSA’s initial proposal to discontinue birth enumeration for residents of the state.Dudek a day earlier had announced that parents in Maine would not be able to register their newborns for a Social Security number at the hospital and would be required to do so by visiting the state’s Social Security offices. This incident follows a recent exchange between Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) and President Trump at the White House, in which she confronted him about his executive order preventing transgender women from competing in women’s and girls’ sports, stating, “I’ll see you in court.”

Is Social Security money going to ‘millions’ of people listed as old as 149?– In an apparent example of government waste, Trump drew laughs during his congressional address Tuesday when he alleged that the Social Security Administration (SSA) had millions of beneficiaries well over 100 years of age. “Three-point-five million people from age 140 to 149,” Trump said, claiming that “money is being paid to many of them.” Perhaps even more shocking was Trump’s assertion that “one person is listed at 360 years of age,” but is it true that actual taxpayer dollars are being wasted on impossibly-old recipients? As it turns out, the databases may list those people, but that does not mean they are getting paid benefits. “The data reported in the media represent people who do not have a date of death associated with their record,” the SSA wrote. “While these people may not be receiving benefits, it is important for the agency to maintain accurate and complete records.” Part of the confusion comes from Social Security’s software system based on the COBOL programming language, which doesn’t use a specific format for dates. This means that some entries with missing or incomplete birthdates will default to a reference point of more than 150 years ago. The news organization Wired first reported on the use of COBOL programming language at the Social Security Administration. Additionally, a series of reports from the SSA’s inspector general in March 2023 and July 2024 state that the agency has not established a new system to properly annotate death information in its database, which included roughly 18.9 million Social Security numbers of people born in 1920 or earlier but were not marked as deceased. This does not mean, however, that these people were receiving benefits. The agency decided not to update the database because of the cost to do so, which would run upward of $9 million. As of September 2015, the agency automatically stops payments to people who are older than 115 years old. The SSA says it also crosschecks data with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to see if recipients younger than 115 and those with incomplete death reports have not used Medicare Part A or B for three or more years. SSA says it prioritizes those who are 90 or older, are currently in pay status and living in the United States to verify if they are still eligible for Social Security benefits. The agency says it will reach out to those individuals to verify if they are still alive, and, if they are not, it stops payments and “reports any suspicions of fraud to SSA’s Office of the Inspector General.

DOGE layoffs hit air transportation safety hard - Trump’s Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy announced an air traffic control “hiring supercharge” Thursday, set to begin immediately. The announcement came after Duffy toured the FAA training academy in Oklahoma City and spoke with trainees about the importance of safety in the National Airspace System (NAS). The hiring wave coincides with the Trump administration’s mass layoffs of federal workers across many federal agencies. Although none of the chronically short-staffed air traffic controllers have yet been fired, the cuts have already hit FAA staff that support their safety-critical functions. Approximately 400 workers were fired starting on Friday. There is no clear picture yet of who was let go, since the layoffs have been done outside of the normal procedure, largely ignoring the FAA management structure which normally conducts hiring and firing, while the workers receive their terminations by email. The terminations are being carried out by the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. DOGE has almost no knowledge or experience with the agencies they are cutting, but that makes little difference to their mission. DOGE, with the blessing of Trump and headed by Musk, is waging a war on federal workers. If an agency like the FAA is imploded and lives are lost as a result, the ruling class would eagerly privatize that agency’s functions. The Professional Aviation Safety Specialists (PASS) union reports 132 terminations of workers still in their probationary period and thus still contractually vulnerable to terminations. PASS, which represents FAA infrastructure and safety workers, reports that many of the fired workers were aviation safety assistants, maintenance mechanics and nautical information specialists. Some of the fired workers were part of the FAA’s Air Traffic Organization en route charting group, which maintains and updates Enroute Navigation Charts used in the NAS and relied upon daily by regional en route controllers across the country. Eighteen air traffic control facilities lost maintenance mechanics, employees who work on electronic issues and other building repairs. Workers who didn’t lose their jobs will also have their work interrupted, as radar technicians and other critical jobs could now be responsible for the additional duties once covered by their coworkers.These are all the types of jobs that are tasked with assisting aircraft safety inspectors, repairing air traffic control facilities, and updating flight charts. Some of the workers would be in charge of updating Washington D.C. airspace maps in the wake of January’s midair crash, for example.The en route charting group only has a handful of workers in the country who are trained in their jobs, which require specialized knowledge of FAA regulations, aviation safety, graphics and map design. It is a detail-oriented and demanding job that directly affects aviation safety in the United States.“We have hundreds of changes every day across the country that need to be made,” one terminated worker told WTOP about the navigational charts they worked on. The maps are updated daily so the pilots and controllers will have the most up-to-date information about navigation and safety.

Elon Musk urges retired air traffic controllers to return to work -Tech billionaire Elon Musk is urging retired air traffic controllers to come back to the workforce amid the nationwide shortage of workers. “There is a shortage of top notch air traffic controllers. If you have retired, but are open to returning to work, please consider doing so,” Musk said in a Thursday post on X, the social media platform he owns. Earlier this month, President Trump’s administration began firing hundreds of workers at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), including personnel brought on for the FAA radar as well as landing and navigational aid maintenance. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy defended the terminations, noting that air traffic controllers were not cut in the process. Duffy said less than 400 workers were ousted from the FAA as part of the administration’s push to downsize the federal government, slash costs and improve efficiency. These cuts came just weeks after an American Airlines plane collided with a Black Hawk helicopter right before landing at the Reagan Washington National Airport. The crash killed all 67 people and was one of the worst U.S. aviation crashes in the last 20 years. Duffy said during an interview in early February that he planned to offer air traffic controllers an option to keep working past 56, the mandatory retirement age, in an effort to bolster safety and retain talent. “I’m going to make an offer to air traffic controllers to let them stay longer. That’s my authority. I can offer them the chance to stay longer, past the mandatory retirement age of 56, pay them more, give them a bonus, keep them on the job, make the system safer, alleviate the pressure on the controllers,” Duffy said on Fox News. “They will make more money.” Airports are still understaffed with air traffic controllers, and the FAA is looking to fill some 3,000 spots, according to the agency’s data.

Protesters rally against Trump's cuts to NIH research funding --Hundreds of people gathered at the steps of the Lincoln Memorial on Friday afternoon to protest President Trump’s recent cuts to government spending on research institutions. The Trump administration has taken steps to disrupt operations at the country’s top federal research institutions since late January, freezing grants issued by the National Institutes of Health and issuing executive orders on sex and gender and diversity, equity and inclusion. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention scrubbed its health data from its site in order to comply with those orders. Most recently, the administration issued a policy to cut government funding to the National Institutes of Health by reducing the amount of grant funding that can go toward overhead costs.NIH is the largest biomedical funder in the world and spent $35 billion on grants for research last year alone. About $9 billion of those funds went toward “indirect costs” like fees associated with facility maintenance and compliance and administrative worker salaries. NIH capped the “indirect cost” rate at 15 percent of a total grant. Many universities and research institutions in the past have used 30 percent to 60 percent extra in their grant funding to cover these expenses.Researchers have decried the move, arguing that lowering the “indirect cost” rate will halt life-saving research on illnesses like cancer and Alzheimer’s disease.

Education Department offers $25K payout to staff before threatened layoffs - The Education Department sent an email to staffers Friday saying if they quit by Monday night they will receive a $25,000 cash payout. A department official confirmed the email, which warned of significant layoffs in the near future, to The Hill. The email, first reported by Politico, was sent by Jacqueline Clay, a chief human capital officer, giving employees until 11:59 p.m. Monday to make a decision. “This is a one time offer in advance of a very significant Reduction in Force for the US Department of Education,” Clay said. The department did not answer when asked how many staffers have accepted the offer so far. Some employees are ineligible for the payout, such as those who have not yet been employed at the department for three years, those who have recently received a bonus or other award or those who got a student loan repayment benefit in the last three years. Clay said the payout would be “the equivalent of severance pay or $25,000, whichever is less.” The department has already put dozens of employees on administrative leave as the Trump administration eyes moves to shut it down completely. While complete elimination of the Education Department would take an act of Congress, it seems the agency will be slashed in other ways, as almost $1 billion in contracts have been canceled.

Trump to order McMahon to begin dissolving Education Department - President Trump is expected to issue an executive order directing Education Secretary Linda McMahon to begin taking the necessary steps to shutter the department.An administration official told NewsNation White House correspondent Libbey Dean early Thursday that Trump would sign an executive order Thursday afternoon that directs McMahon to begin dissolving the Education Department.The official White House schedule was updated Thursday morning with Trump signing unspecified executive orders at 2 p.m. EST.A White House official later told Dean that Trump would not be signing the executive order dismantling the Education Department on Thursday while it is being reviewed.The executive order, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, has been in the works since before Trump was sworn into office in January.The draft of the order recognizes that the president does not have the authority to abolish the department and that it would likely take 60 votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold only 53 seats, The Washington Post reported.

Thousands protest at national parks against Trump’s mass firings - On Saturday, thousands gathered at 145 national parks across the United States to protest the Trump administration’s mass firing of at least 1,000 workers at the National Park Service (NPS) last month. Protests were held at high profile locations, including Yellowstone National Park, the Grand Canyon and the Gateway Arch. In Yosemite, park staff hung an upside-down American flag off of El Capitan, while protesters led by fired workers from the area rallied outside the visitors center in defiance of the attacks on federal workers. In Montana last week, a rally for public lands packed the state capitol with people carrying signs decrying the illegal dismissals and disregard for natural resources. At an earlier protest, a worker from the United States Forest Service (USFS) held a sign reading, “They laid off my whole crew.” His co-worker’s sign declared, “Immigrants didn’t steal my job. The president did.” Those fired from NPS were part of the Valentine’s Day Massacre of federal workers, which included the dismissal of at least 5,600 “probationary” workers. Each was a member of the agencies which oversee the 640 million acres of federal lands in the United States. Those cut included firefighters, park rangers, trail workers, wildlife biologists, botanists, skilled tradespeople and many others who manage public and private lands in the public interest. These cuts came as agencies were already reeling from the federal hiring freeze, which effectively eliminated many seasonal workers who form the bulk of the workforce at these agencies. These devastating reductions will lead to more disasters, such as the Los Angeles wildfires, some of which started on federal land. The protests erupted both in recognition of this danger and in solidarity with the workers who lost their jobs. Many workers have also lost their housing as a result, which was part of their compensation for doing critical environmental work in remote parts of the country. In the aftermath of the cuts, chaos was the rule of the day, with one Forest Service worker losing his job while on a fire assignment in Louisiana across the country from his home in the Pacific Northwest. This while the Trump administration absurdly claims that it did not remove any firefighters. Clearly unprepared for the degree of popular opposition, the Trump administration has re-allowed the parks service to hire seasonal workers after freezing all federal hiring. This may be in part to appease small business owners, who depend on the tourism dollars of the national parks, but it certainly does nothing for the thousands of public lands employees laid off from permanent positions.

Grassroots group calls for economic boycott on Friday A grassroots group is calling on Americans to abstain from spending money Friday in a loosely organized boycott of the current economic and political climate.The “blackout” protest comes amid skyrocketing housing costs and stubborn inflation that’s driven up the price of groceries and other everyday goods. The advocacy group leading the charge, People’s Union USA, which says it is not affiliated with any political party, wants customers to avoid purchases from major businesses and forgo using credit or debit cards for a 24-hour period.“As our first initial act, we turn it off,” the group’s website reads. “For one day we show them who really holds the power.”The People’s Union USA says the goal is to unite Americans against what it sees as corporate greed contributing to high costs.“For our entire lives, they have told us we have no choice … we have to accept these insane prices, the corporate greed, the billionaire tax breaks, all while we struggle to just to get by,” People’s Union USA founder John Schwarz said in a video uploaded to Instagram. “They’ve made us actually believe that we need them.”“For one day, we are going to finally turn the tables,” he added.Inflation continued its upswing in January with increased costs for groceries, gasoline and rent. The Labor Department reported earlier this month that January’s consumer price index was up 3 percent compared to a year ago and up from 2.9 percent over the previous month. It had hit a postpandemic low at 2.4 percent last fall. According to a recent poll from Navigator Research, 3 in 5 Americans cite corporate greed as a “major cause” of rising costs.

Donald Trump dismisses GOP town hall backlash as result of ‘paid troublemakers’ President Trump on Monday shrugged off the outcry from voters at recent town halls with Republican members of Congress, attributing the backlash to “paid ‘troublemakers.’”“Paid ‘troublemakers’ are attending Republican Town Hall Meetings. It is all part of the game for the Democrats, but just like our big LANDSLIDE ELECTION, it’s not going to work for hem!” Trump posted on Truth Social.Trump’s post followed a series of town hall events during the congressional recess in which Republican lawmakers faced angry crowds, particularly over the Trump administration’s push to slash thousands of government jobs.The New York Times reported that Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) faced a slew of frustrated comments from constituents about Trump’s agenda.Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) was specifically challenged at an event last month about topics such as Medicaid and Social Security cuts, according to Wisconsin Public Radio, as well as Elon Musk’s seemingly unchecked power as he leads efforts to shrink the government.Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) faced tough questions about government layoffs at a town hall meeting last month. McCormick’s district is not far from the headquarters for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Like Trump, some top Republicans have largely dismissed the scenes as the result of Democratic agitators who flooded the GOP events. While some Democratic groups have encouraged activists to attend the town halls to protest, lawmakers have acknowledged at least some of the attendees are their constituents, and there is no evidence any attendees were paid.

The political issues behind the Trump administration’s attack on DEI --Starting the day that Donald Trump took office, his administration initiated a sweeping attack on “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI)—the identity-based privilege industry imposed in recent years in corporations, government and educational institutions. Through the campaign against DEI, the White House is asserting unprecedented powers for the executive branch and dismantling democratic rights. Identity politics itself has laid the groundwork for this, fueling the growth of the far-right by suppressing the reality of class conflict and blaming one layer of workers—especially white men— for racial oppression, sexism, homophobia, etc., even as conditions have worsened for all layers of the working class. The result has been frustration and disorientation, sentiments which the far-right feeds off. On January 20, Trump issued Executive Order 14151, “Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs and Preferencing.” It described DEI as “illegal and immoral” and terminated all such “mandates, policies, programs, preferences, and activities in the Federal Government, under whatever name they appear.” It required a review of all equity-related federal grants, contracts, and services with the “aim of eliminating them” and reported on the “economic and social costs” of DEI in all areas of government. “Environmental justice” was singled out for special mention. The following day, Trump issued Executive Order 14173, “Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity,” which tasks government agencies, including the Justice Department, with rooting out DEI not just in state institutions but also in the private sector, on the grounds that they violate civil rights law. Following Trump’s lead, newly installed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Trump fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Q. Brown who is African American, and five other top military officers, in a purge of those Hegseth called “DEI hires.” Trump put his overt racism on display when he asserted that the January 29 crash of an American Airlines jet and a military helicopter in Washington DC happened because of “DEI,” saying, “Brilliant people have to be in those positions.” Three weeks after his executive orders were issued, Trump’s Department of Education issued a “Dear Colleague” letter that declared federal funding will be ended for educational institutions from preschool to the post-secondary level that fail to root out anything DEI-related or, importantly, that which the Trump administration might interpret as such. This includes not just matters “pertaining to admissions, hiring, promotion, compensation, financial aid, scholarships, prizes, administrative support, discipline, housing, graduation ceremonies,” but also “all other aspects of student, academic, and campus life.” The letter prepares the way for the removal from curriculum of any subjects related to race, racial discrimination or the long history of racial oppression in the US—as well as all the study of the many other forms of inequality to which the DEI industry has laid claim. Trump’s anti-DEI orders have already resulted in a chaotic removal of content from websites and the abrupt termination of funding for scientific research utilizing racial or gender categories. In other words, in the name of undoing DEI, the Trump administration aims to ban the study of topics of immense importance, without which American society, culture and history cannot be comprehended. American corporations, which not so long ago were bombarding their workers with DEI initiatives, have taken the cue. In the aftermath of the presidential mandates, numerous major businesses, including Amazon, Target and Walmart, have scrapped their DEI programs. Trump has demanded on his Truth Social account that Apple follow suit. Meanwhile, many educational institutions are scrambling to rewrite mission statements, remove DEI language from their programming, de-publicize events that could be interpreted as DEI-related, and so forth. The University of Colorado took down its DEI website, for instance, while North Carolina’s public higher education system scrapped its requirement that students take DEI-related classes in order to graduate.

GOP bill to ban trans athletes from women’s sports blocked in Senate. Legislation to prevent transgender athletes from participating in girls’ and women’s sports failed to advance in the Senate on Monday after all Democrats voted against it. The Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act failed to clear an initial procedural hurdle on a 51-45 vote. It needed 60 votes to advance, which would have required at least seven Democrats to vote with all Republicans to move it. The bill cleared the House in January on an almost entirely party-line vote. The measure, sponsored by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), sought to amend Title IX, the federal civil rights law against sex discrimination, to prohibit schools from allowing transgender students to compete in athletic events “designated for women or girls.” It defines sex as “based solely on a person’s reproductive biology and genetics at birth.” It would have effectively codified into law a Feb. 5 executive order signed by President Trump to ban transgender student-athletes from participating on girls’ and women’s sports teams. Senate Republicans had expected resistance from Democrats, who blocked the same bill from advancing in 2022. On Monday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said that evening’s vote “will be a time of choosing for Democrats.” Up Next - Starmer unveils 4-step Ukraine plan: 'We are at a crossroads in history' “If the Democrats vote to oppose this legislation, they’ll have to answer to the women and girls they vote to disenfranchise,” he said. Tuberville pressured swing state Democrats to advance the measure in a series of posts on the social platform X on Monday. Later, he argued that the question of whether to restrict transgender athletes’ participation in sports isn’t a partisan one, pointing to a recent New York Times/Ipsos poll that found 79 percent of Americans believe trans athletes should not be allowed to participate in women’s athletics. “This doesn’t have to be a Republican or Democratic issue,” Tuberville said. “This is about standing up for girls and women, which I know my Democratic colleagues also care about.” A recent Pew Research Center survey found that Americans have grown more supportive of policies restricting transgender rights, including ones that require athletes to compete on sports teams that match their birth sex. Opponents of policies that prevent transgender athletes from participating in girls’ and women’s sports have said such restrictions will further isolate transgender young people and stigmatize their identities.

Trump bans transgender athletes from entering the United States - Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a ban last week on international transgender athletes entering the United States, escalating ongoing attacks on transgender rights and immigrants, which lay the groundwork for broader attacks on the working class. Over the last month and a half, the Trump administration and the Republican Party have issued a series of fascistic executive orders, decrees, and legal actions, attacking the rights of transgender people to make their own healthcare decisions, have government identification that matches their gender identity, and, in the state of Iowa, to have access to basic civil rights protections against discrimination. Rubio justified the ban on international transgender athletes under the 1952 Immigration and Nationalities act, which authorizes a “permanent fraud bar” as punishment for “lying” on a visa application. The pretense is that a gender marker matching a transgender person’s gender identity, rather than one that aligns “with their sex assigned at birth,” amounts to “misrepresenting the purpose of their travel or sex,” which constitutes “fraud.” Such a “fraud bar” would lead to a lifetime ban on entry into the United States, with few opportunities for appeal. Although currently targeting only athletes, the same logic could easily expand to a blanket ban on visas to all transgender people whose travel documents match their gender identity rather than sex assigned at birth. This precedent illustrates how easily the Trump administration can reinterpret existing law to impose sweeping travel bans. The Trump administration is attempting to whip up hysteria over the participation of transgender athletes in sports as part of a broader attempt to demonize transgender people and scapegoat them for a variety of social ills. Even the title of Trump’s executive order, “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports,” which bars trans women (female-identifying people born as males) from participating in women’s sports, is clearly designed to stoke prejudice. This is of a piece with efforts to restrict transgender bathroom access, claiming in an executive order titled “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government,” that trans women are “men [who] self-identify as women [to] gain access to intimate single-sex spaces and activities designed for women.” Such language of “protecting women and girls” from some threatening group of people has long been used by the far right to stoke a pogrom-like atmosphere.

Hunter Biden moves to drop lawsuit against Trump staffer, citing financial issues - Hunter Biden is moving to end his lawsuit against a former Trump aide, citing financial troubles.Biden sued Garrett Ziegler in 2023, accusing the former staffer of violating state and federal laws by creating a searchable database of Biden’s emails. The suit accuses Ziegler of “accessing, tampering with, manipulating, [and] altering” content from a laptop connected with Biden.While the judge overseeing the case in September rejected a motion by Ziegler to dismiss the case and order him to pay nearly $18,000 in legal fees to Biden, the former president’s son says he does not have the financial wherewithal to continue the litigation.“Plaintiff has suffered a significant downturn in his income and has significant debt in the millions of dollars range. Moreover, this lack of resources has been exacerbated after the fires in the Pacific Palisades in early January upended Plaintiff’s life by rendering his rental house unlivable for an extended period of time,” Biden’s attorneys wrote in a court filing.“Plaintiff must focus his time and resources dealing with his relocation, the damage he has incurred due to the fires, and paying for his family’s living expenses as opposed to this litigation.”The filing notes that Biden has experienced a “significant downturn” in his finances, citing both declines in book sales of his memoir as well as sales of his artwork, which the filing describes as his primary sources of income.

FBI returns property seized during Mar-a-Lago raid to Trump -The FBI is returning the property seized during the 2022 raid of Mar-a-Lago to President Trump, according to the White House. “The FBI is giving the President his property back that was taken during the unlawful and illegal raids. We are taking possession of the boxes today and loading them onto Air Force One,” White House communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement on Friday. Cheung added that some of the boxes were loaded onto the plane before Trump’s Friday flight back to Florida. Alina Habba, the president’s counselor, said Friday that she loaded some of the “infamous” boxes herself onto Air Force 1. “Justice has been and will continue to be restored in this country under President Trump. TRUTH AND JUSTICE ALWAYS WIN IN THE END. God Bless America,” she said in a Friday post on X. The FBI took 33 boxes during the August 2022 court-authorized search of Mar-a-Lago as part of a probe into Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents and alleged obstruction of officials’ efforts to get them back. The raid prompted heavy criticism of the FBI by Trump and his allies. The president characterized it as unnecessary. He was contacted prior to the raid by the Justice Department (DOJ) and the National Archives to return the records.

Trump reportedly charging millions for guests to dine with him at Mar-a-Lago - Donald Trump is reportedly inviting guests to meet and dine with him at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, for a fee of millions of dollars.Business leaders can secure a one-on-one meeting with the president at Mar-a-Lago for the price of $5m, sources told Wired. At what is called a candlelight dinner held as recently as this past Saturday, prospective guests of the Florida estate were asked to spend $1m to reserve a seat, according to an invitation obtained by Wired.“You are invited to a candlelight dinner featuring special guest President Donald J. Trump,” the invitation reportedly reads. “Additional details provided upon RSVP. RSVPs will be accommodated on a first come, first serve basis. Space is very limited. $1,000,000 per person.” It continues: “Donald J. Trump is appearing at this event only as a featured speaker, and is not asking for funds or donations.”The invitation includes a “MAGA INC.” header, per Wired. Maga Inc, or Make America Great Again Inc, is a Super Pac that helped support Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign by raising over $400m last year.Trump hosted two similar candlelit dinners for $1m a seat at Mar-a-Lago before he took office, one in December and one in January on the eve of his inauguration, the Washington Post previously reported.Trump has been criticized for recent closeness with billionaires, including Elon Musk, who heads the so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge),Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos, all of whom were seated close to the president at his inauguration. These dinners could be Trump’s team cashing in on business leaders’ eagerness to get on the president’s good side, raising further ethical concerns.It is not immediately clear where the millions of dollars raised by these dinners is actually going and what it will be used for, though the Maga Inc sponsorship at the top of the invitation could offer a clue.

Pam Bondi claims she was duped on Jeffrey Epstein documents, vows to obtain more --Attorney General Pam Bondi was duped into thinking she had all the files related to investigations into disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, she told Fox News host Mark Levin over the weekend while defending Thursday’s widely mocked document dump. “I kept saying, there has to be more. There has to be more,” Bondi said Saturday. “I was assured that’s it.”Epstein, who hobnobbed with celebrities, royalty and other powerful people, died by suicide in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. Bondi said she found out from a “whistleblower” after releasing 100 pages of flight logs and Epstein’s contact lists that the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York is “sitting on thousands of pages of documents” that had not been handed over to her. She is now seeking additional information through the FBI. Bondi vowed that Americans will eventually see “the full Epstein files.” “We will get everything,” she told Levin. “We will have it in our possession. We will redact it, of course, to protect grand jury information and confidential witnesses, but American people have a right to know.”Before last week’s highly anticipated document release, Bondi had promoted the revelations in several interviews without details but while describing Epstein’s actions as “pretty sick.”The Trump administration faced immediate backlash over the “nothingburger” Epstein release after the White House hosted a group of MAGA-aligned influencers and distributed “phase one” of the documents in white binders.

Energy Department scientists participate in ‘AI Jam’ with OpenAI, Anthropic - Nearly 1,000 scientists from multiple U.S. National Laboratories gathered Friday to test artificial intelligence (AI) models from leading firms like OpenAI and Anthropic in an effort to harness the advancing technology for science and national security purposes.The event, dubbed “1,000 Scientist AI Jam Session,” involved nine national labs from across the country in what OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT, called “a first-of-its-kind” event.OpenAI organized the event as part of its ongoing collaboration with the Department of Energy, which was announced nearly a month ago by CEO and co-founder Sam Altman at an event in Washington.Part of the testing included on OpenAI’s o3-mini, launched late last month.OpenAI President and co-founder Greg Brockman said the advancing of scientific research is “one of the most promising applications of AI.”Multiple AI firms participated in the event Friday, including Anthropic, which launched its Claude 3.7 Sonnet model this week. Anthropic said the model, which is being tested by scientists at the AI Jam, is the industry’s first “hybrid AI reasoning model,” meaning it can provide quick responses or extended, more detailed answers with more “thinking” time.Scientists were expected to test a variety of Claude’s capabilities, including experiment planning, problem understanding, literature search, code generation and result analysis, the AI company said in a blog post Friday. The researchers will use real-world issue areas related to their respective fields.“AI has the potential to dramatically accelerate scientific discovery and technological development, compressing decades of scientific progress into just a few years,” Anthropic wrote in the post. “Through initiatives like the AI Jam session, we are demonstrating how industry and government can work together to harness AI’s transformative potential while addressing potential risks through rigorous testing,” the post added.Anthropic also has an existing partnership with the DOE including the National Nuclear Security Administration. The firm collaborated with the agencies last April to evaluate a model in a classified environment to evaluate how large language models can contribute or help national security risks in the nuclear space. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who joined Brockman at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on Friday, compared the collaboration to the Manhattan Project, writing, “AI development is a race that the United States must win.” The event comes just weeks after OpenAI launched a new version of its popular ChatGPT model specifically tailored to government agencies and workers. Under ChatGPT Gov, federal agencies will have access to OpenAI’s top models even when dealing with sensitive information.

Trump announces US crypto reserve - President Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. would be creating a crypto reserve to boost the growing industry. “A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA,” Trump posted to Truth Social.Trump said he will make the United States the “Crypto Capital of the World.”His announcement comes just after the White House announced it would be welcoming cryptocurrency industry professionals on March 7 in a first-of-its-kind summit.Attendees will include founders, CEOs and investors from the industry.One of Trump’s first executive orders said he plans to foster “responsible growth” and use of “digital assets” and technologies to bolster the economy.

Trump divides crypto world with plans for strategic reserve -- President Trump’s plan for a strategic crypto reserve has stirred mixed feelings within the cryptocurrency industry. The digital assets space has largely welcomed Trump’s mission to boost the industry, which faced heavy regulatory scrutiny under the Biden administration. But his recent announcement to form a cryptocurrency reserve with assets other than bitcoin — the most valuable cryptocurrency — surprised even those who could benefit from the plan. Anthony Pompliano, founder and CEO of investment firm Professional Capital Management, called the suggested plan an “unforced error that will be regretted in the future.” Pompliano noted in a lengthy blog post that his criticism comes even as “someone who stands to substantially benefit financially” from Trump’s announcement. Trump on Sunday offered new details about a crypto reserve, writing online that it will “elevate this industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden administration.” “Which is why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL [Solana] and ADA [Cardano],” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Online users were quick to point out his post made no mention of bitcoin, despite a pledge he made last July to create a strategic bitcoin reserve. The president clarified a few minutes later and wrote, “And, obviously BTC [bitcoin] and ETH [Ethereum], as other valuable cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the Reserve.” “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!” Trump added. Trump did not explain how the reserve would work, though crypto experts told The Hill it could happen either by using assets seized by federal law enforcement while disrupting financial crimes — as Trump’s crypto executive order suggests — or by having the U.S. government buy the assets on the open market. “The United States is not in the business of buying stocks or other investment assets,” Pompliano argued. “The U.S. has strategic reserves of assets like gold, oil, cheese and other assets that are important to the strength of our balance sheet or have national importance.” “Crypto tokens like ETH, SOL, XRP and ADA don’t fit that framework,” he continued, suggesting the tokens are more like technology stocks rather than natural commodities or hard money. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the co-founders of cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, echoed the sentiment against any reserve that includes currencies other than bitcoin. The brothers each donated $1 million in bitcoin to Trump’s reelection campaign due to his support for the industry.Tyler Winklevoss said on Monday bitcoin is the only digital asset in the world that currently meets the bar for a strategic reserve, writing an “asset needs to be hard money that is a proven value like gold.” Cameron Winklevoss also advocated for a bitcoin reserve, calling it a “must.” “Like rare earth minerals, gold, oil, etc., any country needs to stockpile these resources to increase self-sufficiency and reduce leverage of its adversaries,” Cameron Winklevoss wrote. “Stockpiling sooner rather than later and before other countries is much better in terms of the price you pay.”Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong added he believes bitcoin would “probably be the best option,” writing, “simplest and clear story as successor to gold.” Still, some industry players oppose a crypto reserve of any kind. “Crypto doesn’t fall into the category for the well-being of the American citizen,” said Nic Carter, a founding partner at crypto investment firm Castle Island Ventures. “We don’t need bitcoin or any other crypto asset to trade at any specific price and we don’t have liabilities denominating those assets nor would it be difficult to acquire them if for some reason, we needed to extinguish such a liability.” “I don’t understand how there’s any strategic purpose of these,” he added. While he does not believe the goal of a reserve is to build a new gold standard built on bitcoin as the underlying asset, Carter warned this would be “tremendously disruptive to the nature of the dollar.” “I don’t see why we would disrupt ourselves, I think it throws global markets into upheaval again,” Carter said. “Taxation is theft,” Joe Lonsdale, founder of the venture firm 8VC and known Trump supporter, wrote in a post on the social platform X. “It should be kept to a minimum. It’s wrong to steal my money for grift on the left; it’s also wrong to tax me for crypto bro schemes.”

Trump signs order to create bitcoin reserve, crypto stockpile -- President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Thursday evening establishing the creation of his promised Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. Both stockpiles will be initially funded with assets owned by the Department of Treasury that were seized in criminal or other legal proceedings.

Donald Trump signs executive order creating bitcoin reserve --President Trump signed an executive order Thursday to create a government reserve of bitcoin along with a “digital asset stockpile” in the administration’s latest embrace of the cryptocurrency industry. According to the order, the U.S. government will use the bitcoin already seized by federal law enforcement while disrupting financial crimes to establish the reserve.Trump’s crypto and artificial intelligence (AI) czar, David Sacks, emphasized the plan will “not cost taxpayers a dime.”He noted the U.S. government is estimated to own about 200,000 bitcoins — worth more than $17 billion — but no audit has been completed to confirm this number. The order directs a “full accounting” of the government’s digital asset holdings, Sacks said.“The U.S. will not sell any bitcoin deposited into the Reserve. It will be kept as a store of value,” Sacks wrote in a post on the social platform X. “The Reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency often called ‘digital gold.'”The order also establishes a digital asset stockpile, which will consist of digital assets other than bitcoin. Like the reserve, these assets were forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings, Sacks said.“The government will not acquire additional assets for the stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings,” Sacks wrote. “The purpose of the stockpile is responsible stewardship of the government’s digital assets under the Treasury Department.”

Ripple launches non-profit National Cryptocurrency Association -The cryptocurrency platform Ripple is launching a nonprofit focused on educating Americans about the world of crypto. The National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA) aims to offer educational tools and resources about crypto, share stories from crypto users and provide crypto data and statistics, said NCA President Stu Alderoty, who also serves as Ripple’s chief legal officer. “We think that it’s important to make crypto accessible to the everyday American and demystify crypto,” Alderoty told The Hill. “There has been a narrative around crypto, that it’s complex, it’s geeky, crypto bros, etc.” “Now I think more than ever, crypto is going mainstream, but there is a gap out there,” he continued. “There’s no one place where folks can go to learn more about crypto, get educated about crypto, and also to amplify the voices of the 55 million Americans that own and use crypto.” The NCA’s website features answers to questions about crypto, including, “What is crypto, and why should I care?” and, “What’s a wallet, and why do I need one?” It also acknowledges the industry’s troubled past with questions about avoiding crypto scams and “crypto fraudsters, bankruptcies, and people going to jail.” Up Next - Vance, Hegseth & Gabbard Tour Southern Border As Trump VOWS Cartel Crackdown The nonprofit is seeking to distinguish itself from other crypto organizations, such as Stand With Crypto and Blockchain Association, emphasizing that it is not a political or lobbying organization and does not represent crypto companies or protocols.

OCC eases Biden-era restrictions on crypto assets -The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Friday rescinded Biden-era guidance — in the form of interpretive letters, interagency statements and bulletins — advising banks how to engage with crypto assets. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reversed policies on crypto banking, withdrawing its guidance on custody, stablecoin reserves and risk management requirements.

SEC ends investigations into crypto firms under Trump administration -The ending of multiple Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigations into cryptocurrency firms is sending a strong signal that the agency’s approach to enforcement is quickly changing under the Trump administration. The turning of the tide comes after a major push from the cryptocurrency industry to put more crypto-friendly leaders back in Washington, following four years of hard-line policies from the Biden administration. The crypto sector, which poured nearly $250 million into various 2024 races up and down the ballot, is largely not surprised to see the fast action at the SEC under President Trump, who has promised to prioritize U.S. leadership in the digital currencies space. “We in the crypto space felt it was very deceptive the way they [the Biden administration] went about dealing with crypto firms. They told crypto firms to come in and register, to come in and engage with them,” said Nic Carter, a founding partner at crypto investment firm Castle Island Ventures. “There was no meaningful way to do that.” Over the past three weeks, the SEC closed or paused a series of investigations into crypto firms, starting with a request for a legal pause in its suit against Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. In a court filing, the regulatory agency said a new crypto task force, launched by acting Chair Mark Uyeda, “may impact and facilitate the potential resolution” of the Binance case, which originally accused the exchange of engaging in a “web of deception.” And over the past week alone, the agency closed separate investigations or lawsuits against the crypto arm of Robinhood, decentralized finance firm UniSwap Labs and blockchain software group Consensus Last Thursday, the SEC officially dismissed its lawsuit against Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency platform in the U.S. Companies quickly lauded the decisions. Blockchain Association CEO Kristen Smith remarked the “era of regulation by enforcement — and intimidation — is coming to an end,” citing the “fresh perspective” at the SEC. While changes are unfolding at the SEC, those in the sector say the agency is still in the reset phase of undoing the policies from former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and it may be too soon to tell exactly how enforcement will look in the future. The crypto industry has long advocated for clearer regulations and guidelines, but the reset is needed before the SEC can tackle these questions, observers say. “This is a very reasonable course correction that we’re seeing now,” Carter said, calling the past month an “interregnum” period. Smith, speaking with The Hill earlier this month, said many of the actions so far have been about getting to a “neutral position.” “Step one is sort of undoing that damage,” Smith said, noting the White House’s creation of an artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto czar position, as filled by David Sacks, is “mind-blowing.”

CFPB says supervision is happening, but examiners disagree --The top lawyer at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sent an email to the agency's supervisory staff telling examiners that if they are not working, they are disobeying orders. Ahead of a court hearing, the top lawyer at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says he ordered supervisory staff to get back to work. But examiners and supervisors are disputing that work is being done, noting that travel credit cards have been cut off.

CFPB leaders planned to gut the bureau, fire 1,175 employees -- The Trump administration had intended to gut the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and fire 1,175 employees in statutorily required offices, according to emails submitted in a court battle with the bureau's union. The Trump administration intended to gut the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau through a mass workforce reduction, which could be a smoking gun in a court battle with the bureau's union.

Two-thirds of Americans support CFPB: Poll About two-thirds of surveyed Americans support the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), according to a new poll released Wednesday. Some 67 percent of Americans said they favor the consumer watchdog, including 60 percent of Republicans, 68 percent of independents and 84 percent of Democrats. The poll was commissioned by the Center for Responsible Lending and Americans for Financial Reform, two nonprofits that support strict consumer financial regulations. The latest polling comes amid growing concern that the Trump administration plans to effectively dismantle the consumer watchdog. The agency’s work has largely been on hold since early February, when acting Director Russell Vought ordered staff to stand down from all work tasks. CFPB employees were also told not to come into agency headquarters, and the building’s lease was later canceled. The administration has insisted that it does not plan to eliminate the CFPB, pointing to President Trump’s decision to nominate Jonathan McKernan as director and Vought’s plans to streamline the agency. However, several current employees said in court filings last week that they were told by officials that they plan to “wind down” the agency, eliminating all but five employees and transferring the consumer watchdog’s statutorily required functions to other agencies thehill.com

FDIC Ends Disclosing Total Assets of Banks on “Problem Bank List,” as Disclosure Might Suddenly Trigger a “Disorderly Run” by Wolf Richter - Acting Chairman of the FDIC Board of Directors, Travis Hill, who was sworn in as FDIC Vice Chairman on January 5, released a statement today, along with the materials of the quarterly report by the FDIC on the FDIC-insured banks, that the FDIC would no longer disclose as of today the total assets on its “Problem Bank List.” The list had previously shown total assets and the total number of banks on the Problem Bank List. As of today, it only shows total number of banks on the Problem Bank List, forget the assets. This sudden end of the disclosure is a problem because a jump in assets on the list used to indicate that a bigger bank had gotten on the list, something we’d need to start paying attention to, and now we don’t know if a bigger bank has gotten on the list. We just see the total number – 66 banks in Q4 2024, according to the FDIC today. This is what the FDIC’s chart used to look like through Q3 2024. In the chart above, by jump in the gold columns in Q4 2021, we could tell that a bigger bank had gotten on the Problem Bank List as assets of Problem Banks spiked. Then, in 2022 SVB went to hell for all to see and finally imploded in Q1 2023, followed by ultimately two other banks. We didn’t know which banks had gotten on the list, but we knew something was going on with one or more bigger banks. And people guessed rightly or wrongly. Now we won’t see that anymore. And this is what the FDIC’s Problem Bank List chart looks like today. Q4 2024 is the first time since 1990 that total assets of Problem Banks are not disclosed. The gold columns now represent the number of banks (which used be indicated by the black line), and the total assets data (used to be the gold columns) has vanished: In the statement, Hill addresses the irony of this act: “Upon becoming Acting Chairman, I issued a statement that noted the FDIC would ‘expand transparency in areas that do not impact safety and soundness or financial stability.’” That disclosure of total assets of Problem Banks didn’t “impact safety and soundness or financial stability” from 1990 through Q3 2024. And now it suddenly does, and the disclosure gets nixed? Are “unrealized losses” on bank financial statements next? Sure, he gave four reasons why this suddenly was necessary: When a large bank ends up on the list, the public might identify which bank that is – or wrongly identify a bank that is not on the list – and start yanking its money out, “prompting a disorderly run,” he said. So, that could have happened, but what prompted the run on SVB was the disclosure on its financial statements of its unrealized losses on its holdings of Treasury securities and MBS, and its total dependence on big uninsured deposits by well-connected depositors. So, will the disclosure of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets be next? He added another reason: “Supervisors fail to downgrade a large bank in poor condition for fear the disclosure could spark a bank run and/or financial instability.” But financial statements of banks could and did spark bank runs, so just replace bank financial statements with bank PR statements full of pap and bullshit? Is that next? To avoid “disorderly runs?” And he added another reason: “A large bank is downgraded for reasons other than deteriorating financial condition (which, as a general matter, occurs regularly), prompting customers to withdraw funds out of misplaced fear of insolvency.” Forced disclosures of sins, and fears of the consequences of these disclosures, are part of what is supposed to keep banks from doing stupid things. The purpose of these disclosures is to impose some discipline on banks and bank CEOs; and if they do stupid things, allow markets and depositors to punish them. And the fear of that punishment is supposed to keep banks from doing stupid things. That’s what disclosures are all about. And doing away with these kinds of disclosures isn’t going to make the banking system stronger.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 --Here is the ICE March Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024 Prompting Homeowners to Shop for Better Rates, Accept Higher Deductibles

• The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a record +$276 (+14%) to $2,290 in 2024, capping a five-year rise of +$872 (+61%)
• Seattle (+22%), Salt Lake City (+22%) and Los Angeles (+20%) saw the largest percentage increases in 2024, while the largest increases by dollar amount were in Dallas (+$606) and Houston ($515)
• Property insurance premiums in Florida increased by less than half the national average on a percentage basis, but rates there remain among the highest in the country
• A record 11.4% of borrowers switched carriers in 2024, up 2 percentage points from 2023, likely due to a combination of rising nonrenewal activity and borrowers shopping for lower premiums
• Homeowners are opting for higher deductibles in exchange for premium savings, with new borrowers having 19% ($390) higher deductibles and 12% ($284) lower premiums than the market at large
• “While it’s no surprise that insurance costs are rising, we’re beginning to see emerging trends in terms of how homeowners are responding to the higher cost environment,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research for Intercontinental Exchange. “We’re seeing increases in both the share of borrowers switching policies and borrowers taking on higher deductibles as a way to combat rising premiums.”

Here is a chart from the Mortgage Monitor. These increases are largely being driven by losses due to natural disasters.

• The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a record $276 (+14%) to $2,290 in 2024
• That’s the largest single-year increase on record dating back to 2013 when ICE began tracking the metric, and when stacked on top of the $245 (14%) increase seen in 2023 caps off a 61% ($872) increase over the past 5 years
• Property insurance costs continue to be the fastest-growing subcomponent of monthly home payments compared with principal, interest, and property taxes
• The average total mortgage payment (PITI) rose 6% last year, with the 14% rise in property insurance costs significantly outpacing an 8% rise in interest payments and the 5% rise in property taxes among all outstanding mortgages
• While all other subcomponents rose, the amount of principal paid on the average mortgage held flat from 2023
• Over the past 5 years we’ve seen 21-22% increases in principal, interest, and tax payments among the active mortgage population, roughly a third the rise in property insurance

Here is a graph of the national delinquency rate from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in January are below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash

• Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre pandemic levels
• While hurricane delinquencies are on the mend – falling from 58K in November to 40K through January – wildfire-related delinquencies are beginning to emerge in California, with an estimated 680 borrowers missing their January payment
• All in, 490K previously delinquent borrowers cured to current in January, the highest such volume in a year
• Delinquencies for all stages improved, although a portion of the decline in borrowers 90 or more days late is due to increased foreclosure referrals following the expiration of a VA foreclosure moratorium

Foreclosure sales remain well below pre-pandemic levels; however foreclosure starts have picked up following the end of the VA foreclosure moratorium.

• Foreclosure starts jumped by 30%, sales rose by 25%, and the number of active foreclosures rose by 7% in January following expiration of a recent moratorium on VA foreclosures
• While January increases in foreclosure activity are common, starts hit their highest level in 5 years, with more than 40K loans referred to foreclosure in the month
• Compared the same time last year, foreclosure starts among FHA (-2%) and conventional (-4%) loans declined, with the annual increase being solely driven by the spike in VA referrals
• Resumption of VA foreclosures – all else the same – could result in a roughly 15% increase in 2025 foreclosure referral activity compared to 2024
• January foreclosure sales rose from December following holiday moratoriums, but were down from the same time last year (-5%) even with the resumption of VA foreclosure sales

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.There is much more in the newsletter.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in January 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.Some of the recent increase in the 90+ day delinquency rate is probably related to the hurricanes last year.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.57%, up from 0.56% in December. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in January 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.46% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.47% the previous month).For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.08% are seriously delinquent (unchanged from 2.08%). For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.52% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.51%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 20.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 22 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 37 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. Those factors resulted in the largest weekly decline in the 30-year fixed rate since November 2024. At 6.73 percent, the rate is now at its lowest level since December 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Additionally, the FHA rate dipped to 6.42 percent. Refinance activity was at its fastest pace since October 2024, as conventional refinance applications rose 34 percent and government refinance applications increased by 42 percent over the week. The move in government refinances was driven by a 75 percent increase in VA loans, which have been prone to large changes in recent months.”The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.73 percent from 6.88 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 15% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. The refinance index increased sharply this week but remains very low.

CoreLogic: Home Prices Increased 3.3% Year-over-year in January -- The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S. home price growth in January 2025 was largely flat at 3.3% year over year. Although prices are expected to eek out gains in the coming year, with our economists predicting a 3.6% increase from January 2025 to January 2026, there are stark differences between regions.The Northeast continues to buck overall national trends, remaining unbothered by slower job growth, elevated interest rates, and ongoing affordability concerns. Meanwhile, in the Mountain West, prices are the furthest from their record highs. In Hawaii, prices declined by 4.4%.Despite this, national single-family home prices are forecast to reach a new peak in March 2025. Currently, the median sales price for all single-family homes in the U.S. is $375,000 “Flattening home price changes over the last six months suggest further price deceleration is ahead,” “More importantly, compressed monthly changes highlight the general lack of home-buying demand that continues to characterize the current housing market. While this year's cold winter and large natural disasters play a role in dampening demand, falling consumer sentiment suggests potential homebuyers are wary of the short-term economic outlook and future inflation. Nevertheless, with the spring home buying season upon us, the recent improvements in mortgage rates may help invite homebuyers back into the market.” This was the smaller YoY increase as reported for December.This map is from the report.

• CoreLogic analysis suggests that Florida markets are continuing to fall out of favor while western New York is gaining popularity.
• Our economists anticipate further price deceleration in 2025, although recent improvements in mortgage rates may spur homebuying this spring.
• National home price growth is flat on a monthly basis. Annual home price growth is tracking just above inflation.
• Florida and Arizona top the charts for markets where the risk of price decline is very high.

Housing March 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 28.3% Year-over-year -- Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week.Inventory is now up 2.4% from the seasonal bottom seven weeks ago in January and should start increasing seasonally in March.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 28.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 28.7%), and down 21.8% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 21.9%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Feb 28th, inventory was at 639 thousand (7-day average), compared to 640 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

Construction Spending Decreased 0.2% in January From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during January 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.5 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $2,196.0 billion. The January figure is 3.3 percent above the January 2024 estimate of $2,122.2 billion. Private spending decreased and public spending increased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,686.0 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised December estimate of $1,690.1 billion. ...In January, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $506.6 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised December estimate of $505.9 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Private residential (red) spending is 4.9% below the peak in 2022. Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is 0.1% below the peak in November 2024.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 3.1%. Private non-residential spending is up 1.8% year-over-year. Public spending is up 5.9% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations; however, spending for the previous two months was revised up.

Update: Lumber Prices Up 7% YoY - This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). On March 4, 2025, LBR was at $658.00 per 1000 board feet, up 6.9% from a year ago.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.We didn't see a significant runup in the Spring period of 2023 or 2024 due to the housing slowdown. The recent increase might be due to the tariffs on Canadian lumber.

Trade Deficit increased to $131.4 Billion in January --The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from $98.1 billion in December, revised.January exports were $269.8 billion, $3.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $401.2 billion, $36.6 billion more than December imports. Both exports and imports increased in January. Exports were up 4.1% year-over-year; imports were up 23.1% year-over-year. Both imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $31.7 billion from $23.7 billion a year ago.

US trade deficit hits record high in January on imports surge (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high in January amid front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs, suggesting that trade could be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. The trade gap surged 34.0% to an all-time high of $131.4 billion from a revised $98.1 billion in December, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Thursday. The percentage change was the largest since March 2015. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit soaring to $127.4 billion from the previously reported $98.4 billion in December. President Donald Trump this week slapped a new 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%, triggering a trade war. Imports soared 10.0%, the most since July 2020, to $401.2 billion. Goods imports increased a record 12.3% to an all-time high of $329.5 billion. They were driven by a $23.1 billion increase in imports of industrial supplies and materials, mostly reflecting finished metal shapes, which are probably gold. Consumer goods imports rose $6.0 billion, boosted by pharmaceutical preparations, cell phones and other household goods. Imports of capital goods increased $4.6 billion amid rises in computers, computer accessories and telecommunications equipment. Imports of services rose $0.4 billion to $71.7 billion, lifted by rises in charges for the use of intellectual property and other business services. But travel service imports decreased. Exports rose 1.2% to $269.8 billion. Goods exports increased 1.6% to $172.8 billion, boosted by a $4.2 billion rise in capital goods that reflected civilian aircraft, semiconductors, computers and civilian aircraft engines. Consumer goods exports increased $1.7 billion, driven by pharmaceutical preparations and jewelry. But exports of other goods dropped $1.3 billion. Food exports decreased $1.0 billion, pulled down by a $0.8 billion drop in soybeans. Exports of services increased $0.6 billion to $97.0 billion amid gains in financial, telecommunications, computer and information as well as other business and transport services. But exports of government goods and services decreased $0.3 billion. The deterioration in the trade deficit and drop in consumer spending in January have raised the risk of a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter. But some economists still expect moderate growth this quarter, arguing that gold, mostly from Europe, accounted for much of the surge in imports. The increase in gold imports was seen related to fears of tariffs on the precious metal. "Most gold imports into the U.S. are unrelated to U.S. production or consumption and instead fluctuate based on demand from gold market participants, so the BEA excludes them altogether from the national accounts," Goldman Sachs said in a note. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is currently forecasting GDP declining at a 2.8% annualized rate this quarter. The economy grew at a 2.3% in the October-December quarter.

Vehicles Sales Increase to 16.00 million SAAR in February - Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: Despite Affordability Headwind, U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 3.4% in February (pay site). Continuing January’s trend, market strength was at the two far ends of the affordability scale, as entry-price cars and lower-cost CUVs posted big gains, while the same was true in most premium-price segments. The range of vehicles generally thought of as the bread-and-butter of the market, non-luxury compact and midsize cars, CUVs and SUVs, all recorded big declines. However, even when including lower-price vehicles, sales of non-luxury sedans and compact/midsize CUVs and SUVs were down 3.8% in January-February, which really is indicating a continued affordability issue – at least compared with pre-2020 (pandemic) history.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for February (red). Sales in February (16.00 million SAAR) were up 2.5% from January, and up 2.1% from February 2024.Sales in February were slightly above the consensus forecast. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. This was the best February since 2020.

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 9% YoY in February --This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 460 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 460 thousand SAAR in February, down from 491 thousand in January, and down 9.3% from 508 thousand SAAR in February 2025. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Currently heavy truck sales are somewhat solid.As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales increased in February to 16.00 million SAAR.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Light vehicle sales were at 16.00 million SAAR in February, up 2.5% from January, and up 2.1% from February 2024.

ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 50.3% in February == The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.6%, down from 52.1%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.3% February 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.3 percent in February, 0.6 percentage point lower compared to the 50.9 percent recorded in January. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index dropped back into contraction territory after expanding for three months, registering 48.6 percent, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 55.1 percent recorded in January. The February reading of the Production Index (50.7 percent) is 1.8 percentage points lower than January’s figure of 52.5 percent. The index expanded for the second month in a row after eight months in contraction. The Prices Index surged further into expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 62.4 percent, up 7.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.9 percent in January. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.8 percent, up 1.9 percentage points compared to the 44.9 percent recorded in January. The Employment Index registered 47.6 percent, down 2.7 percentage points from January’s figure of 50.3 percent. This suggests manufacturing expanded in February. This was below the consensus forecast.

ISM® Services Index Increased to 53.5% in February - The ISM® Services index was at 53.5%, up from 52.8% last month. The employment index increased to 53.9%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 53.5% February 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the eighth consecutive month in February, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. “In February, the Services PMI® registered 53.5 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher than the January figure of 52.8 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 54.4 percent in February, 0.1 percentage point lower than the 54.5 percent recorded in January. This is the index’s 57th consecutive month of expansion. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 52.2 percent in February, 0.9 percentage point higher than the January figure of 51.3 percent. The Employment Index remained in expansion territory for the fifth consecutive month; the reading of 53.9 percent is a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to the 52.3 percent recorded in January.This was close to consensus expectations.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending March 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 224,250. The previous week was unrevised.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

ADP: Private Employment Increased 77,000 in February -From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 77,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,”. “Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.” This was below the consensus forecast of 140,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 158,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.

February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Employment Situation - Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 2,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 151 thousand in February. Private payrolls increased by 141 thousand, and public payrolls increased 11 thousand. Payrolls for December and January were revised down 2 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In February, the year-over-year change was 1.95 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.4% in February, from 62.6% in January. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.9% from 60.1% in January (blue line).. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January. This was slightly below consensus expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined.

Employment Report: 151K Jobs Added in February, Fewer Than Expected - - The latest employment report showed that 151,000 jobs were added in February, falling short of the expected 159,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 4.1%.Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.Household Survey Data: Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in February. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024.Establishment Survey Data: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, similar to the average monthly gain of 168,000 over the prior 12 months. In February, employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in nonfarm employment over the last four years. The 3-month moving average is currently at 200,000, down from the previous month.For another view, here is the monthly percent change in nonfarm employment since 2000. We've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend. The latest 12-month moving average is at 162,000, down from the prior month.The next chart illustrates the relationship between unemployment, recessions, and the S&P Composite since 1948. Unemployment is typically a lagging indicator that moves inversely to equity prices (the top series in the chart). Notice the rising unemployment peaks in 1971, 1975, and 1982, which coincided with bear markets. A similar pattern briefly emerged during the COVID pandemic, but the impact was short-lived as irrational exuberance quickly took over. The latest unemployment rate stands at 4.139% (to three decimal places). Now, let's examine the unemployment rate as a recession indicator—specifically, the cyclical troughs in the unemployment rate (UR). The next chart highlights a 12-month moving average of the UR, with its troughs marked. Currently, the unemployment rate stands at 4.14%, slightly below the latest 12-month moving average of 4.07%. As shown in the inset table, the correlation between these moving average troughs and the start of recessions is remarkably strong. The most recent trough occurred 20 months ago, in June 2023, when the 12-month moving average of the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since January 1970.The next chart highlights the unemployment rate for those unemployed for 27 weeks or more. This rate has declined significantly from its all-time peak of 4.4% in April 2010. Following the COVID pandemic, it rose as high as 2.6% but has since trended downward. It now stands at 0.9%, up from 0.8% the previous month.How long does unemployment typically last? As the next chart shows, the latest data indicates that the average duration of unemployment is 21.3 weeks. Historically, this metric tends to rise during and after recessions.The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ broadest measure of unemployment, the U6 series, captures not only the unemployed but also the underemployed, marginally attached workers, and those who have stopped looking for work. Often referred to as the 'real' unemployment rate, many economists consider it the most comprehensive gauge of labor market conditions. In contrast, the more widely cited unemployment rate only includes those who are unemployed and actively job-seeking within the past four weeks.The U6 series currently stands at 8.01%, up from the previous month and the highest level since October 2021.

February jobs report: weak employment gains, but some 3+ year highs in unemployment metrics --My question over the past year has been whether “decleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft landing,” deceleration would need to end, and the numbers stabilize, vs. continuing to deteriorate towards an actual downturn. The verdict this month was mixed. On the employment side, YoY job gains have been relatively stable for the past six months, as has the three month average. But on the unemployment side, there were a number of poor readings at 3+ year highs. Additionally, real aggregate payroll growth shows continuing signs of a marked slowdown Below is my in depth synopsis.

• 151,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 140,000. Government jobs increased by 11,000. Noteworthily, federal jobs decreased -11,000. The three month average was an increase of +200,000.
• The pattern of downward revisions to previous months, which was broken last month, resumed ever so slightly this month. December was revised upward by 16,000, while January was revised downward by -18,000, for a net decrease of -2,000.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed a decrease of -588,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series increased 2,294,000 jobs, or an average of 191,000 monthly.
• The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.1%. Since the three month average is 4.067% vs. a low of 3.733% for the three month average in the past 12 months, or an increase of less than 0.4%, this means the “Sahm rule” remains off the table.
• The U6 underemployment rate rose sharply, by 0.5%, to 8.0%, its highest level since October 2021, and 1.6% above its low of December 2022.
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now also rose a sharp 414,000 to 5.893 million, the highest number in over three years, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023.
• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.2 hours to 40.8 hours, This remains down -0.7 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, and is tied with last May and December for the highest reading over the past 12 months.
• Manufacturing jobs increased 10,000. Nevertheless this series is firmly in decline, as the three month average is the lowest since mid year 2022.
• Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs rose 8,900.
• Truck driving decreased -1,900.
• Construction jobs increased another 19,000.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by a mere 100 to another new post-pandemic high.
• Goods producing jobs as a whole increased 34,000, and made their first post-pandemic new high since last September. This is especially important, because these typically decline before any recession occurs. On a YoY% basis, these jobs are only up 0.4%. Nevertheless, only during the 1985-86 slowdown and for 3 months during the 1990s and 2000s have manufacturing jobs had this anemic a YoY increase without a recession occurring.
• Temporary jobs, which have declined by over -550,000 since late 2022, declined by another -12,300. But this month remained above their October 2024 low, so this may still suggest that the bottom in this metric is in.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose 47,000 to 2,337,000, vs. its 12 month high of 2,465,000 last August.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.09, or +0.3%, to $30.89, for a YoY gain of +4.1%, the highest in three months, but right in line with its average YoY% gain since last April. Importantly, this continues to be well above the 2.9% YoY inflation rate as of 3.0% last month.
• The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose 0.2%, and is equal to its post-pandemic peak set in December This measure is also up 1.1% YoY, right in line with its average for the past 12 months.
• The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.4%, but is up 5.1% YoY, slightly above its average YoY rate in the past 12 months. On the other hand - importantly - adjusted for inflation this series will probably only be up 0.3% +/-0.1% since last September, indicating at least a slowdown in the ability of households to increase consumption.
• Professional and business employment declined -2,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series has been down YoY since September 2023, and is now -0.4% YoY, which in the past 80+ years - until now - has almost *always* meant recession.
• The employment population ratio declined -0.2% to 59.9%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased -0.2% to 62.4%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.

SUMMARY: This was a mixed but generally weak report. While the number of net jobs increased, and also increased in most of the leading sectors, most importantly at present in residential building construction and goods production as a whole, the numbers were not strong. The big weakness was on the unemployment side, where the unemployment rate, underemployment rate, number of newly unemployed, and those not in the labor force who want a job all increased sharply. The employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rate also declined. Hours worked rose, but not by much; and both hourly wages and aggregate payrolls likely did little better than keeping even with inflation, although we won’t know that for sure until next week. Most concerning is the likely slowdown in aggregate real payrolls in the past five months.It isn’t negative, but it could indicate that a peak is forming.So again, the verdict is “positive but weak.”

Jobs data reveal reasons for consumer concern - Payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, after rising a downwardly revised 125,000 in January employment. Public sector payrolls accounted for 11,000 of those gains, driven by gains in local government employment. The federal government shed 10,000 jobs, the largest decline since June 2022. That is still early for the layoffs we saw at the federal level in late January. We will not see the full effects of recent federal layoffs until March and April. Private sector payrolls rose by 140,000, which is well above the downwardly revised pace of 81,000 in January. Financial activities added 21,000. Transportation and warehousing added 17,800 jobs, the fourth consecutive month. The gains were concentrated in delivery services. Construction rose 19,000, with gains dominated by specialty contractors in the residential sector. Manufacturing added 10,000, mostly in motor vehicle and parts manufacturing. Vehicle inventories have slipped in recent months, while electric vehicle (EV) sales have surged. Consumers scrambled to take advantage of EV tax credits since the election as they are expected to be rescinded to pay for other tax cuts by Congress. Leisure and hospitality continued its downward march, with a loss of 16,000 jobs. The largest hit was restaurants, which contracted by 27,500 jobs. Some of that could reflect weakness due to fear of deportations. Leisure and hospitality is one of the sectors most dependent on immigrant labor. Often those workers are undocumented. Retail took a hit, falling 6,300 after rebounding last month. The outlier was big-box discounters as consumers traded down and searched for value. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.3% in February, after adding a downwardly revised 0.4% pace in January. That translates to a 4.0% gain from a year ago, the same as last month. The three-month moving average cooled to 3.6%. Average hours worked held at 34.1 in February for the second consecutive month. That ties the low of Match 2020 and helps explain why consumer attitude surveys have soured in recent months. Their take-home pay is slowing, while the level of prices remains elevated. Separately, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in February. That was despite a drop in the participation rate to 62.4% from 62.6% in January. The drop was across all ages and races of prime-age (25-54) men. The U-6 measure of unemployment, which better measures underlying stress in the labor market, jumped to 8.0% in February from 7.5% in January. That is the highest level since October 2021, before the economy had fully recovered the jobs lost to the pandemic. The rise was dominated by people experiencing slack work or business conditions. The monthly loss in jobs due to poor economic conditions was the highest since April 2020. Multiple job holders hit a new record during the month and made up the highest share of total employment since April 2009. That gain was driven by workers who are now working full-and part-time jobs. Women dominated that increase as they worked to supplement their pay amidst persistently high price levels. The ranks of those out sick continued to rise in February and hit the highest level since December 2022. That was when we were still naming waves of COVID; in the winter of 2022 it was the Omicron wave. Flu, COVID and norovirus cases have all picked up. Some schools have had to shut down to contain outbreaks, including the measles. The economy will slow notably in the first quarter amid heightened uncertainty.

Comments on February Employment Report – McBride - The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.Earlier: February Employment Report: 151 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate. Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in February at 83.5% from 83.5% in January.The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.5% from 80.7% the previous month. Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in February. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 million from 4.48 million in January. This is above the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.0% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.46 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.44 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Through February 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 50 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Summary: The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%. The headline number was decent.

Thrust into unemployment, axed federal workers face relatives who celebrate their firing (AP) — Scrambling to replace their health insurance and to find new work, some laid-off federal workers are running into another unexpected unpleasantry: Relatives cheering their firing. The country’s bitterly tribal politics are spilling into text chains, social media posts and heated conversations as Americans absorb the reality of cost-cutting measures directed by President Donald Trump and carried out by billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Expecting sympathy, some axed workers are finding family and friends who instead are steadfast in their support of what they see as a bloated government’s waste. “I’ve been treated as a public enemy by the government and now it’s bleeding into my own family,” says 24-year-old Luke Tobin, who was fired last month from his job as a technician with the U.S. Forest Service in Idaho’s Nez Perce National Forest. Tobin’s job loss sent him scurrying to fill prescriptions before he lost his health insurance and filling out dozens of applications to find whatever work he can, even if it’s at a fast-food restaurant. But some relatives reacting to his firing as “what has to happen to make the government great again” has been one of the worst parts of the entire ordeal. “They can’t separate their ideology and their politics from supporting their own family and their own loved ones,” says Tobin. Kristin Jenn got a similar response from members of her family after she learned the National Park Service ranger job she was due to start had been put on hold by the DOGE hiring freeze. She thinks it’s likely the job will be eliminated altogether. As she has expressed her disappointment over potentially losing her dream job, some members of her mostly conservative family have unfriended her on social media. Others are giving her the silent treatment. Nearly all favor such cuts even if she’s a victim of them.

30 Los Angeles County correctional officers indicted for inciting “gladiator fights” among youth -- The recent indictment of 30 correctional officers at Los Padrinos Juvenile Hall in Downey, California for orchestrating “gladiator fights” among incarcerated youth provides a window into the brutality inherent in the US carceral system, which dehumanizes society’s most vulnerable and perpetuates class oppression. According to prosecutors, between July and December 2023, Los Padrinos Juvenile Hall became a theater of cruelty where over 140 youths, aged 12 to 18, were forced into nearly 70 organized fights. These events were not spontaneous outbreaks of violence but were meticulously planned and encouraged by the very officers entrusted with the care of these minors. According to the indictment, officers predetermined specific times and locations for these fights, creating an environment where violence was not only permitted but promoted. A particularly harrowing incident involved a 17-year-old who was attacked by at least six other youths while officers stood by, some laughing and shaking hands with the assailants. This incident came to light through footage published by the Los Angeles Times, sparking public outrage and leading to the subsequent investigation. The actions of these correctional officers are not isolated aberrations but are emblematic of a broader systemic issue. Correctional officers, as agents of the state, wield significant power over incarcerated individuals, a majority of whom come from impoverished and marginalized backgrounds. The exploitation of these youths for sadistic amusement is not simply a question of psychology or “bad actors”: it reflects a profound contempt for the working class and the poor. This incident is a manifestation of the state’s role in enforcing class domination through violence and intimidation. The juvenile justice system, rather than serving as a rehabilitative mechanism, functions as a tool to marginalize and oppress the underprivileged. The youths subjected to this barbarity were not seen as individuals deserving of care and rehabilitation but as expendable commodities in a perverse spectacle. Jamal Tooson, representing the 17-year-old victim and his family in a civil case against the county, emphasized that this indictment is merely “the tip of the iceberg” concerning systemic problems within the probation department. Tooson pointed to a pervasive culture that fosters “a lack of accountability, violence, and policies that encourage officers to look the other way,” as evidenced in the disturbing video footage. He further noted the alarming indifference displayed by other youths during the incident, suggesting that such occurrences were routine: “The reaction of the children who were eating their lunch, they really didn’t seem shocked or surprised, which tells me this is a daily occurrence.” California Attorney General Rob Bonta acknowledged the gravity of the situation, stating that the officers “allowed and, in some instances, encouraged” the violent confrontations among the youths. In response to these egregious acts, the Los Angeles County Probation Department placed the implicated officers on leave without pay.

Teachers' negative emotions impact engagement of students, new study finds -- In a new study, about 10% of teachers displayed notable amounts of negative emotions — as much as 80% of their instructional time. The students of these teachers reported reduced enjoyment and engagement in class.In their study, University of Delaware Associate Research Professor Leigh McLean and co-author Nathan Jones of Boston University, found that teachers displayed far more positive emotions than negative ones. But they also found that some teachers showed high levels of negative emotions.In these cases, teachers' expressions ofnegative emotions were associated with reduced student enjoyment of learning and engagement. These findings add to a compelling body of research highlighting the importance of teachers' and students' emotional experiences within the context of teaching and learning. The paper ispublished in the journal Contemporary Educational Psychology."Anyone who has been in a classroom knows that it is an inherently emotional environment, but we still don't fully understand exactly how emotions, and especially the teachers' emotions, work to either support or detract from students' learning," said McLean, who studies teachers' emotions and well-being in the College of Education and Human Development's School of Education (SOE) and Center Research in Education and Social Policy (CRESP). "This new tool, and these findings, help us understand these processes more precisely and point to how we might provide emotion-centered classroom supports."Using the new observational tool they developed—the Teacher Affect Coding System—McLean and Jones also assessed teachers' vocal tones, body posturing,body movements and facial expressions during classroom instruction and categorized outward displays of emotion as positive, negative or neutral. For example, higher-pitched or lilting vocal tones were categorized as positive, while noticeably harsh or sad vocal tones were categorized as negative. Overall, McLean and Jones found that teachers spent most of their instructional time displaying outward positive emotions.However, they did find that a small subset of teachers—about 10%—displayed notable amounts of negative emotions, with some showing negativity during as much as 80% of their instructional time. The students of these teachers reported reduced enjoyment and engagement in their ELA classes and reduced engagement in their math classes."We think that these teachers are struggling with their real-time emotion regulation skills," McLean said. "Any teacher, even a very positive one, will tell you that managing a classroom of students is challenging, and staying positive through the frustrating times takes a lot of emotional regulation."Emotion regulation is a particularly important skill for teachers because children inherently look to the social cues of adults in their immediate environment to gauge their level of safety and comfort. When a teacher is dysregulated, their students pick up on this in ways that can detract from learning."

Supreme Court declines college bias response team case; Thomas, Alito dissent - The Supreme Court on Monday turned away another opportunity to weigh the constitutionality of college bias response teams. Over the dissents of conservative Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, the court declined to take up a lawsuit against Indiana University officials brought by Speech First, a group formed to advocate for students’ First Amendment rights. The group has filed numerous challenges against colleges across the country that leverage bias response teams, which solicit anonymous reports of bias and sometimes refer students for discipline. The Supreme Court last year turned away a similar lawsuit filed by the group against Virginia Tech, which eventually discontinued its team. “Given the number of schools with bias response teams, this Court eventually will need to resolve the split over a student’s right to challenge such programs,” Thomas wrote Monday. “The Court’s refusal to intervene now leaves students subject to a ‘patchwork of First Amendment rights,’ with a student’s ability to challenge his university’s bias response policies varying depending on accidents of geography,” Thomas continued, quoting his similar dissent when the court turned away the Virginia Tech case. Speech First urged the court to use the Indiana case to resolve the legal question, saying it had deepened a circuit split on whether students have a right to sue when college bias teams chill speech in violation of the First Amendment. “Precisely because speech codes are often struck down, universities have looked for subtler, more sophisticated ways to chill disfavored speech. Enter the bias-response team,” Speech First’s petition stated. “Instead of outright banning biased speech, these teams deter it by threatening students with adverse consequences. They also burden it by imposing a series of administrative and other costs on students who commit ‘bias incidents,’” it continued.

Trump threatens to pull funding from schools that refuse to suppress free speech, opposition to genocide - In a direct attack on the democratic rights of the entire working class, President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened on his social media site to unilaterally “STOP” all federal funding for “any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests.” Ignoring the First Amendment, Trump wrote:Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on the crime, arrested.Trump concluded with a call to ban all facial coverings, writing “NO MASKS!” With this eugenicist demand, Trump is following recent legislative initiatives by both Republican and Democratic politicians that seek to ban the wearing of facial coverings in public, even as COVID-19, measles, influenza and other deadly pathogens continue to spread unchecked throughout the United States.Trump has no legal authority to force colleges or schools to unilaterally deport or suspend students. Free speech, including objecting to the policies of the US government, is protected under the First Amendment, including at public universities.With his post, Trump is placing himself above the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and asserting police-state powers to imprison and deport any who voice public opposition to him or his government. If Trump can arrest American citizens and deport foreign students on visas who dissent, what is to stop him from doing this to anyone else, including federal employees who protest illegal firings, or workers who strike against layoffs and the destruction of their wages and social benefits? Trump feels emboldened to make these threats due entirely to the de facto support he receives from the Democratic Party. During the first year of protests against the Israeli genocide in Gaza, under the Biden administration, over 3,000 people, including students and teachers, were arrested on college campuses and school grounds for calling for an end to the slaughter.The bipartisan attack on the democratic rights of the working class in the United States has been mirrored by Washington’s imperialist allies around the world, which are similarly seeking to suppress growing opposition among broad layers of the population to imperialist war and inequality.

Trump task force to investigate 10 universities for “antisemitism”- On Friday, the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that the Federal Task Force to Combat Antisemitism—created by President Donald Trump following an executive order signed on January 29—will be investigating 10 universities, where pro-Palestinian demonstrations against the Gaza genocide took place last year. In a press release, the DOJ stated that the task force had selected the 10 schools because they “have experienced antisemitic incidents since October 2023” and “may have failed to protect Jewish students and faculty members from unlawful discrimination, in potential violation of federal law.” The statement said that Senior Counsel to the Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Leo Terrell—a former legal commentator on Fox News whose selection was announced by Trump on January 9—had informed the 10 schools that they were being investigated. The universities have been identified as Columbia University; George Washington University; Harvard University; Johns Hopkins University; New York University; Northwestern University; the University of California, Los Angeles; the University of California, Berkeley; the University of Minnesota; and the University of Southern California. The DOJ press release said the task force would be meeting with “university leadership, impacted students and staff, local law enforcement, and community members as it gathers information about these incidents and considers whether remedial action is warranted.” The aim of these investigations is to further the slander of campus protesters and demonstrations as “antisemitic,” and to intimidate anyone wishing to speak out against the US-backed Israeli genocide in Gaza. Immediately after Israel launched the Gaza genocide in October 2023, the Democrats and Republicans and corporate media joined with fascist Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Zionist leaders in falsely equating opposition to ethnic cleansing and the slaughter of Palestinians with “antisemitism.” The slander campaign reached a crescendo in December 2023, when the presidents of Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) testified before the US House Committee on Education and the Workforce regarding allegations of “antisemitism” on their campuses during the fall 2023 semester protests. The bipartisan House inquisition turned reality on its head and demanded the university presidents answer questions about whether calls for the “genocide of Jews” violated university policies. The politicians and corporate media claimed the presidents’ responses were “evasive and insufficient,” and a campaign was launched demanding their resignations. Liz Magill, president of the University of Pennsylvania, resigned on December 9, 2023 amid pressure from donors and other university stakeholders, just four days after the hearing. Claudine Gay, president of Harvard University, resigned under pressure on January 2, 2024. When the campus protests resumed in the 2024 spring semester, the campaign against the demonstrators intensified, with over 3,000 students detained nationwide. Most arrests were for misdemeanors like trespassing or failure to disperse, with some cases dismissed while others remained ongoing. In Illinois, students at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign faced felony mob action charges for participating in encampment protests. In September 2024, at the University of Michigan, Democratic state Attorney General Dana Nessel’s office charged nine demonstrators involved in an encampment protest on the university’s Diag. Two individuals were charged with trespassing, a misdemeanor carrying a maximum 30-day sentence, for failing to vacate the area after repeated orders. Seven others faced both trespassing charges and additional counts of resisting or obstructing a police officer, a felony punishable by up to two years in prison, due to alleged physical interference with law enforcement efforts. In October 2024, student Jonathan Zou received a trespass ban after using a megaphone during an anti-genocide demonstration on the Ann Arbor campus. This ban effectively restricted his access to classes, dormitories and campus employment.

Trump administration cancels $400M of Columbia’s grants and contracts amid antisemitism probe - Four federal agencies announced Friday they are immediately canceling $400 million of grants and contracts to Columbia University over what they described as the Ivy League institution’s “continued inaction in the face of persistent harassment of Jewish students.” The cancellation of the grants and contracts comes just four days after the Trump administration’s newly created Joint Task Force to Combat Anti-Semitism announced a probe into Columbia. The four agencies — the U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Department of Education and U.S. General Services Administration — said more cancellations will follow. The university has over $5 billion in federal grant commitments, according to the announcement. “Universities must comply with all federal antidiscrimination laws if they are going to receive federal funding,” U.S. Education Secretary Linda McMahon said in a Friday statement. “For too long, Columbia has abandoned that obligation to Jewish students studying on its campus. Today, we demonstrate to Columbia and other universities that we will not tolerate their appalling inaction any longer.”A Columbia spokesperson said Friday that officials are reviewing the announcement and plan to work with the federal government to restore the funding. “We take Columbia’s legal obligations seriously and understand how serious this announcement is and are committed to combatting antisemitism and ensuring the safety and wellbeing of our students, faculty, and staff,” the spokesperson said. The four agencies threatened to take similar actions against other colleges. “The decisive action by the DOJ, HHS, ED, and GSA to cancel Columbia’s grants and contracts serves as a notice to every school and university that receives federal dollars that this Administration will use all the tools at its disposal to protect Jewish students and end anti-Semitism on college campuses,” they said in Friday’s announcement. The antisemitism task force is already poised to review several other high-profile colleges. Last week, the Justice Department said the group would visit 10 college campuses, including Columbia, where antisemitic incidents have been reported since October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel.

Trump Administration Announces Steps To Crack Down on Protests Critical of Israel - Trump administration officials have announced measures to suppress protests on college campuses that are critical of Israel, steps that have chilling implications for First Amendment rights.President Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would cut federal funding to colleges that allow “illegal protests,” a reference to the student-led pro-Palestine demonstrations that have spread across the country in response to Israel’s bombing campaign and siege on Gaza. The president also threatened that “agitators” would be imprisoned or deported if they were foreign students.“All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests. Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on the crime, arrested. NO MASKS!” the president said.Elise Stefanik, Trump’s nominee to be ambassador to the UN, celebrated Trump’s announcement and acknowledged that the purpose of the order is to target protests against Israel.“Under President [Trump], colleges and universities will be held accountable. Antisemitism and anti-Israel hate will not be tolerated on American campuses. Promises made, promises kept,” Stefanik said. Journalist Glenn Greenwald, a constitutional lawyer, explained in a video posted on X why cutting federal funding over political speech and protests is a violation of the First Amendment.“You can take the position that there should be no federal funding of universities or there should be, that’s independent of the free speech point,” Greenwald said. “Once the federal government or any government decides to offer a benefit that’s optional … it cannot then condition receipt of that benefit on your expressing a particular view, your affirming a particular view, or your refraining from expressing a political view. This is basic First Amendment doctrine.”Trump’s announcement came a day after Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of Health and Human Services, announced HHS would be taking steps to combat “antisemitism” on college campuses in another directive aimed at pro-Palestinian protests. While both President Trump and his predecessor have labeled the protests “antisemitic,” many Jewish students and organizations have been involved in the demonstrations. HHS said in a press release that it, along with the Department of Education and the US General Services Administration, will be launching a “comprehensive review of Columbia University’s federal contracts and grants in light of ongoing investigations for potential violations of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act” over allegations of antisemitism related to pro-Palestine protests.

State Department To Use AI To Revoke Visas of Students Who 'Appear Pro-Hamas' - Secretary of State Marco Rubio is launching an AI-driven effort to revoke the visas of foreigners in the US who “appear pro-Hamas” in a crackdown targeting pro-Palestine protests on college campuses, Axiosreported on Thursday.The report said the effort will involve AI-assisted reviews of social media accounts of tens of thousands of foreign students in the US on visas that will look for “evidence of alleged terrorist sympathies expressed after Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.”The language in the report suggests that any foreign students who attend pro-Palestine demonstrations or express sympathy for Palestinians online could be swept up in the crackdown since opponents of the Israeli siege on Gaza or US military support for Israel are often labeled “pro-Hamas.”Civil liberty groups have strongly criticized President Trump’s promises to deport foreign students who attend pro-Palestine protests since the speech of foreigners inside the US is supposed to be protected under the First Amendment.“If we open the door to expelling foreign students who peacefully express ideas out of step with the current administration about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we should expect it to swing wider to encompass other viewpoints too,” Sarah McLaughlin, senior scholar at the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), said in an op-ed for MSNBC in January.“Today it may be alleged ‘Hamas sympathizers’ facing threats of deportation for their political expression. Who could it be in four years? In eight?” McLaughlin added.Abed Ayoub, head of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, told Axios that Americans won’t like the State Department’s effort because they’ll view it as “capitulating free speech rights for a foreign nation.”The new State Department project is part of a broader administration effort against protests that are critical of Israel, which includes threats from President Trump that universities that allow what he called “illegal protests” would lose federal funding. The Department of Justice also launched a new task force investigating alleged incidents of “antisemitism” on college campuses.

Education Department offers $25K payout to staff before threatened layoffs - The Education Department sent an email to staffers Friday saying if they quit by Monday night they will receive a $25,000 cash payout. A department official confirmed the email, which warned of significant layoffs in the near future, to The Hill. The email, first reported by Politico, was sent by Jacqueline Clay, a chief human capital officer, giving employees until 11:59 p.m. Monday to make a decision. “This is a one time offer in advance of a very significant Reduction in Force for the US Department of Education,” Clay said. The department did not answer when asked how many staffers have accepted the offer so far. Some employees are ineligible for the payout, such as those who have not yet been employed at the department for three years, those who have recently received a bonus or other award or those who got a student loan repayment benefit in the last three years. Clay said the payout would be “the equivalent of severance pay or $25,000, whichever is less.” The department has already put dozens of employees on administrative leave as the Trump administration eyes moves to shut it down completely. While complete elimination of the Education Department would take an act of Congress, it seems the agency will be slashed in other ways, as almost $1 billion in contracts have been canceled.

Trump to order McMahon to begin dissolving Education Department - President Trump is expected to issue an executive order directing Education Secretary Linda McMahon to begin taking the necessary steps to shutter the department.An administration official told NewsNation White House correspondent Libbey Dean early Thursday that Trump would sign an executive order Thursday afternoon that directs McMahon to begin dissolving the Education Department.The official White House schedule was updated Thursday morning with Trump signing unspecified executive orders at 2 p.m. EST.A White House official later told Dean that Trump would not be signing the executive order dismantling the Education Department on Thursday while it is being reviewed.The executive order, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, has been in the works since before Trump was sworn into office in January.The draft of the order recognizes that the president does not have the authority to abolish the department and that it would likely take 60 votes in the Senate, where Republicans hold only 53 seats, The Washington Post reported.

Genetic vulnerability, air pollution may raise risk of COVID infection, severe outcomes --A combination of genetic predisposition and long-term exposure to air pollution, as well as each factor independently, may facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infection, per a study published yesterday in PNAS. Researchers in China and the United Kingdom parsed data from 458,396 UK Biobank participants who were COVID-naïve at baseline to investigate links between genetic vulnerability and exposure to air pollutants, alone and together, and SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and death. The association of air pollutants and COVID-19 severity was also evaluated among 110,216 COVID-19 patients. Data were collected from online questionnaires, interviews, physical assessments, electronic health records, and data from Public Health England, Public Health Scotland, and the Secure Anonymized Information Linkage. "According to the World Health Organization (WHO) 2019 report, over 90% of the global population still lives in environments that do not meet the air quality guidelines set by the WHO," the researchers wrote. "Evidence suggests that air pollutants can compromise lung defenses against infections and potentially increase the expression of SARS-CoV-2 receptors in the pulmonary system." In the infected group, there were 5,972 hospitalizations and 1,135 deaths. COVID-infected participants with a high genetic risk and extended exposure to high levels of air pollutants had a 97% (fine particulate matter [PM_2.5]), 90% (coarse particulate matter [PM₁₀]), 86% (nitrogen dioxide [NO_2]), and 90% (nitrogen oxides [NO_x]) higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and a 104%, 91%, 108%, and 114% higher risk of death, respectively, than participants at low genetic and environmental risk. During a median follow-up of 2.07 years, the COVID-naïve group experienced 110,216 COVID-19 infections. At later follow-up, there were 6,499 hospitalizations and 1,135 deaths. Genetic risk per interquartile-range increase in air pollution was linked to an increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (75%) and death (68%, only for exposure to particulate matter) in this group. Long-term air-pollutant exposure was significantly and independently tied to an increased risk of poor COVID-19 outcomes in the COVID-naive cohort. For each interquartile range–rise in air-pollution concentrations, the risks of COVID-19 infection were 96% higher for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, 97% for NO₂, and 98% for NO_x. "The risk of COVID-19-related outcomes showed a rapidly increasing trend at lower concentrations of air pollutants, while at higher concentrations, the increase in risk tended to slightly level off," the researchers wrote. The authors said the study "demonstrates that air pollutants interact with host genetic susceptibility in both multiplicative and additive manners, thereby influencing the risk of COVID-19 severity." "Our findings also have important practical implications, including mask-wearing and limiting outdoor activities during periods of high pollution," they added. "These findings are expected to provide important evidence for future research on the interplay of genetics and air pollution on the onset and progression of acute respiratory infections."

Scientists observe that smartphone restriction for three days can alter brain activity --A smartphone's glow is often the first and last thing we see as we wake up in the morning and go to sleep at the end of the day. It is increasingly becoming an extension of our body that we struggle to part with. In a recent study in Computers in Human Behavior, scientists observed that staying away from smartphones can even change one's brain chemistry.The researchers recruited young adults for a 72-hour smartphone restriction diet where they were asked to limit smartphone use to essential tasks such as work, daily activities, and communication with their family or significant others. During these three days, the researchers conducted psychological tests and did brain scans using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the effects of restricting phone usage. Brain scans showed significant activity shifts in reward and craving regions of the brain, resembling patterns seen in substance or alcohol addiction.There is an ongoing debate about the term "smartphone addiction" (SPA) making an appearance in many psychological tests, as experts believe that this term might create an inaccurate image of the complex emotional, mental and social aspects associated with smartphone overuse. Nevertheless, neuroscience has seen a growing focus on excessive smartphone use (ESU) due to its association with negative physical and mental health effects, and its links to addictive behaviors.For this study, 25 young adults aged 18 to 30 who regularly used smartphones were selected. Before the 72-hour restriction period, participants were screened for the severity of physical, psychological, and social issues related to smartphone use and computer gaming, as well as to ensure they did not have any existing mental health conditions.To assess their mood, smartphone habits, and cravings, participants completed two questionnaires before their first brain scan. They were then instructed to limit phone use for the next 72 hours.After the three-day restriction period, participants underwent fMRI scans while being shown different sets of images: neutral scenes (such as landscapes and boats), smartphones turned on, and smartphones turned off.The scans revealed that limiting smartphones led to brain activity changes in areas associated with dopamine and serotonin—neurotransmitters that regulate mood, emotions and also addiction.The researchers noted that smartphone restriction can resemble withdrawal from addictive substances or even food cravings in some ways, which was noticeable in both heavy (ESU) and regular smartphone (non-ESU) participants.

COVID 2024-25 vaccines 33% protective against emergency room or urgent care visits, data reveal -Late last week in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, authors from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provided mid-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) data for the 2024-25 COVID-19 season, and said the current vaccine was 33% effective in preventing COVID-related emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) visits in adults, and it was 45% to 46% protective against hospitalization for older adults.Data were too limited to draw conclusions about VE against critical illness for adults of all ages, the authors note.The authors estimate that COVID-19 vaccination averted approximately 68,000 hospitalizations during the 2023-24 respiratory season. These vaccines targeted the Omicron JN.1 and JN.1-derived sublineages. The authors say the new findings support the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendation that everyone 6 months and older should receive a COVID vaccine."During 2024, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron JN.1 and JN.1-derived lineages predominated and were genomically divergent from the XBB lineages on which the 2023–2024 COVID-19 vaccines were based," the authors wrote.Approved COVID vaccines for 2024-25 were made by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, based on the Omicron KP.2 sublineage, and by Novavax, based on the JN.1.The new VE estimates come from two networks observed from September 2024 through January 2025, with outcomes among adults aged 18 years and older included in the study. The two networks were the Virtual SARS-CoV-2, Influenza, and Other respiratory viruses Network (VISION) and Investigating Respiratory Viruses in the Acutely Ill (IVY) networks. VISION includes 373 EDs/UCs and 241 hospitals in eight states, while IVY includes 26 hospitals in 20 states.Among adults in the VISION network, 137,543 encounters met criteria for inclusion in the analyses, including 10,459 (8%) case-patients and 127,084 (92%) control patients.Effectiveness of 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccination against a COVID-19–associated ED/UC visit was 33% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28% to 38%) during the first 7 to 119 days after vaccination, 36% (95% CI, 29% to 42%) during the first 7 to 59 days after vaccination, and 30% (95% CI, 22% to 37%) during the 60 to 119 days after vaccination.VE was significantly higher for adults age 65 and older in VISION who did not have immunocompromising conditions, at 45% (95% CI, 36% to 53%) at a median interval of 53 days since receipt of the vaccine dose.In the IVY network, VE against COVID-19–associated hospitalization was 46% for adults over 65 without immunocompromising conditions (95% CI, 26% to 60%), at a median of 60 days after receipt of a 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine dose."COVID-19–associated hospitalization rates during the time frame of this analysis were relatively low compared with those during previous years, precluding estimation of VE against critical illness (i.e., intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, or death); VE against these outcomes has historically been higher and more sustained than that against less severe outcome," the authors included.

COVID vaccine provided some protection this winter, estimates suggest -- Few Minnesotans sought the COVID-19 vaccine to reduce their infection risks this winter, but at least the shots offered some protection for those who did. The current vaccine was 33% effective at preventing emergency room and urgent care visits among adults who got COVID, according to interim federal estimates published Thursday. HCMC in Minneapolis and HealthPartners in Bloomington contributed to the federal report. The vaccine also was about 45% effective in a five-month period this fall and winter in preventing hospital admissions among elderly adults with healthy immune systems, the report showed. During the pandemic, the initial vaccines appeared to be 70% to 90% effective at preventing admissions, but at that point few people had exposure to the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, said Dr. Matthew Prekker, an HCMC physician and a co-author of the report. Now that most people have been infected, "there is a baseline level of immunity in the community, even independent of vaccination status," he said. "So the fact that the current vaccine is providing additional protection, even on the margins, is really important." The effectiveness data is now more in line with yearly estimates on how well the seasonal influenza vaccine is working, he added. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends COVID vaccinations for people starting at 6 months old. Whether that changes is unclear now that vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is secretary of U.S. Health and Human Services, which oversees the CDC. Kennedy has long voiced concerns about vaccine side effects and postponed this week's meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. The committee has traditionally guided the CDC on vaccine recommendations.Minnesota's weekly update on Thursday showed a continued decline in COVID activity after it peaked in January. Influenza had crowded Minnesota hospitals after the holidays, but its spread has diminished in recent weeks as well.While 33% of Minnesotans were up to date this winter with recommended flu vaccinations, state data showed, only 20% were up to date with COVID booster shots.

1 in 5 men surveyed had erectile dysfunction up to 2 years after COVID -- A total of 19.0% of 609 men who completed a survey in Japan and had persistent COVID symptoms reported erectile dysfunction (ED) 1 and/or 2 years post-infection, perhaps due to depression, anxiety, and/or sleep disturbances, suggest researchers with the COVID-19 Recovery Study II Group. The group conducted a case-control study based on a survey fielded 1 and 2 years post-infection about ED and underlying factors among 609 men aged 20 years and older admitted to 1 of 20 hospitals for COVID-19 from March to September 2021, a period spanning the Alpha and Delta variants. The median participant age was 56 years."In COVID-19 patients, vascular endothelial damage due to inflammatory cytokines and hypoxia in the acute phase of COVID-19 lead to the progression of ED," the investigators wrote. "Furthermore, ED is affected by physical stress and psychological stress."The findings were published in Scientific Reports.In total, 116 men (19.0%) reported having ED, including 86 in the 1-year survey, 70 in the 2-year survey, and 40 in both. These participants had higher rates of shortness of breath and fatigue than those without ED and scored higher on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-D (depression) and the EuroQol 5-dimensions for pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression than before infection.Seventy-nine (68.1%) men said they developed ED within 28 days of COVID-19 infection, and 6 (4.3%) did so 2 to 5 months following infection. Of the 116 men with ED, 29 (25.0%) experienced ED improvement during the study. Improvement in ED symptoms was noted within 1 month (15 men), 2 months (1), 4 months (1), and 1 year (12). Fifty-seven patients (49.1%) still had ED at 2 years. An exploratory clustering analysis suggested that ED was related to disturbed sleep, while COVID-19 severity, reinfection, vaccination frequency, and antiviral treatment were unrelated. "Anxiety, depression, and sleep disturbances after the post-acute phase of COVID-19 infection suggest that supportive care for the symptoms and quality of life is expected for ED as Long-COVID," the study authors wrote.

Pandemic ushered in costly increase in testing for respiratory pathogens, study finds -A study today in JAMA Network Open suggests the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased respiratory pathogen testing rates at children's hospitals across the United States, a trend that has persisted and resulted in unnecessary costs. The authors say their findings support de-implementation efforts. The study is based on information from the Pediatric Health Information System database, and it includes respiratory pathogen testing for more than 5 million encounters for respiratory illnesses at 39 children's hospitals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, from 2016 through 2023. The vast majority of encounters (87.5%) occurred in emergency departments (EDs), with children being well enough to avoid hospital admission (ED-only). Of the 5,090,923 encounters, 37.2% included respiratory pathogen testing. More than three fourths of tests (77.9%) involved children younger than 6 years, and 94.5% involved children without complex chronic conditions. Of the 5 million encounters, there were 634,303 hospitalizations, 22.1% of which required intensive care unit (ICU) treatment.Hospitalizations with ICU visits had the highest percentage of respiratory testing (83.2% of encounters), followed by hospitalizations without ICU visits (60.6%), and ED-only encounters (33.2%).According to the authors, increases in respiratory testing were seen at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in both ED-only encounters (level change, 33.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 31.77 to 35.79]) and hospitalizations (level change, 30.97 [95% CI, 29.21 to 32.73]), associated initially with COVID-19–only testing.Testing rates after 2020 remained elevated, with the percentage of encounters with respiratory testing increasing from 13.6% (95% CI, 13.5% to 13.7%) in 2016 to a peak of 62.2% (95% CI, 62.1% to 62.3%) in 2022."While COVID-19–only testing decreased after 2020, other targeted testing and large-panel (>5 targets) testing increased," the authors wrote.After adjusting for inflation, the authors said the costs of respiratory testing increased over time, from a low of $20.6 million in 2016 to a high of $111.0 million in 2022."The continued gradual increase of large-panel testing over the study period, in particular, may represent overuse of a costly, low-value intervention," the authors concluded. "Given the significant increase in the cost of testing per encounter over the study period (eg, from $34.2 in 2017 to $128.2 in 2022), large-panel testing presents an opportunity for targeted deimplementation efforts, especially in the ED, where testing results may not be available prior to patient disposition."

Lula fires health minister amid new wave of COVID-19 in Brazil - Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers Party - PT) fired Health Minister Nísia Trindade on February 25. In the two years that she led the ministry, her tenure was marked by the largest dengue outbreak in the country’s history and the deepening of the “herd immunity” policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. She will be replaced by the former Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, who previously headed the Ministry of Health between 2011 and 2014 in the government of Dilma Rousseff (PT).Former president of Brazil’s largest epidemiological institute, Fiocruz, ex-minister Trindade was considered a “technical cadre” who had been chosen by Lula for his supposed “reconstruction of Brazil” after four years of destruction by the government of fascist ex-president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022). With the replacement of Trindade, Lula hopes that the health ministry under Padilha will help him increase his government’s increasingly low approval rating and put him in a better position in the 2026 presidential election.Absent from the bourgeois media has been an objective assessment of Trindade’s tenure at the head of the health ministry, first and foremost in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The many allegations in the media that her resignation represented an act of “misogyny” by the Lula government have been amplified by the pseudo-left, which throughout the pandemic has functioned as a left-wing cover for the “COVID forever” policy of the world’s ruling elite.Any serious assessment of Lula’s health ministry has to take stock of the COVID-19 pandemic in just over two years of his government. Significantly, the day after Trindade’s resignation, Brazil marked five years since the first case of COVID-19 in the country, a subject little reported in the Brazilian media.In mid-February 2023, shortly after Lula’s inauguration, his government’s health ministry decided to end the release of daily COVID-19 data in Brazil without any scientific basis. Days later, Trindade made her first nationwide pronouncement, saying, “finally, the time has come to celebrate our country's biggest popular festival [Carnival].”As the WSWS wrote at the time, “this statement on the eve of Carnival, when the service and tourism sectors in Brazil make billions in profits, also expressed the Lula government’s intention not to place any restrictions on the economy even as the pandemic worsens.”Today, this situation has only worsened in Brazil, which saw an increase in the number of cases and deaths at the beginning of the year after the Christmas and end-of-year celebrations. Carnival, an event that brings together millions of people across Brazil, has served as a super-spreader event for the novel coronavirus in the country.Even with this well-established pattern, the Lula government has preferred to ignore science in favor of private profits. The country is going through a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which will certainly worsen in the coming days and weeks due to Carnival.

Spring Covid shot, measles, Listeria outbreak, and VRBPAC cancelled - Your Local Epidemiologist | Katelyn Jetelina - Good news: We’re getting a break from “influenza-like illnesses” (fever, cough, sore throat), which continue to decline—typical as the weather warms up. The Northeast still has very high levels. A rare flu complication that impacts the brain—influenza-associated encephalopathy (IAE)—has increased this year, accounting for 13% of flu-related deaths (9 out of 68). We don’t yet know why it’s increasing, but it highlights the importance of flu vaccination in kids and the use of antivirals. Meanwhile, Covid-19 metrics have been declining for a few weeks but are now stalling. With a mild winter and flu on the downturn, I’m watching closely to see if Covid-19 makes a spring comeback. Last week, CDC published flu vaccine effectiveness data, and it’s looking good: 36-54%. The range is due to a combination of different data systems and one strain circulating that is notoriously hard to target with vaccines.Other events, beyond flu, are popping up nationwide. The latest count in West Texas measles outbreak is 146 cases. Twenty children have been hospitalized, some in intensive care. None were vaccinated. Texas’s case curve looks like it’s slowing, but it’s unclear if that’s due to control efforts or data/reporting challenges. Other measles cases are popping up in Kentucky, Austin, Houston, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Pennsylvania. All are from international travel and have not resulted in outbreaks (3+ cases) yet. A rubella case was reported in Texas (San Antonio). This vaccine-preventable disease can be devastating to pregnant women. Since we eliminated it in the U.S., it’s very rare—there were only 38 cases total from 2016 to 2022. Rubella, the “R” in the MMR vaccine, is caused by a virus that spreads from coughing or sneezing in airborne droplets. In Ohio, a farm worker became infected with H5N1 after coming into contact with dead poultry. The virus jumping from a bird to a human shouldn’t be too surprising, given that Ohio had to cull 10 million birds due to mass infections. The risk to the general public is still low. On our policy watch radar: Utah could soon ban fluoride in drinking water. The legislature is waiting on the governor’s signature. Fluoride in drinking water has beneficial effects, particularly in underserved areas. (Check out the YLE deep dive on this topic.) Utah would join Hawaii, which has already banned fluoride in drinking water. If you’re 65+ or moderately/severely immunocompromised, a spring Covid-19 vaccine is available. Last October, CDC recommended a second dose of the 2024-2025 Covid-19 vaccine for this spring. It’s a 6-month recommended interval, so the first people will be eligible this week. Data published last week showed Covid-19 vaccines provided 45% additional protection against hospitalizations this winter. I’ll tell my 93-year-old grandparents to get one based on last year’s data. They don’t need to run, but it’s worth the extra protection as we expect a summer wave. Speaking of vaccine policy, FDA’s VRBPAC meeting originally scheduled for March 13 has been canceled under the direction of HHS Secretary Kennedy. While ACIP is CDC’s external vaccine advisory committee, VRBPAC is the FDA’s. This meeting is important because it would have determined the fall 2025 flu vaccine formula—a decision that must be made now since manufacturers require about 6 months to develop the vaccines. Delaying VRBPAC’s meeting raises two other concerns:

1. Reduces transparency on options and decision points. These organizations have consistently been the voice of wisdom, providing clear, unbiased decision-making around vaccine policy.
2. Destabilizes insurance coverage. There is uncertainty about where to go next with vaccines, and without insurance coverage, there is less motivation to produce vaccines.

The strategy for flu vaccine development is now unclear. The ripple effects of these decisions could be significant in the long run. A slow-burn Listeria outbreak (since 2018) was finally linked to frozen supplement shakes from Prairie Farms, which were distributed to long-term care (LTC) facilities. The details:

• 38 people were infected across 21 states, resulting in 12 deaths
• Cases were all in long-term care facilities. This is bad because older adults are at the highest risk of Listeria infections.
• When CDC officials first investigated the outbreak in 2018, then in 2021 and 2023, they found that people were consistently sick only in LTC and nursing homes but couldn’t link the outbreak to its food source.

Spread the word to anyone in LTC facilities. Here is more info from FDA. The National Institutes of Health awards grants annually, with funding distributed throughout the year. However, due to the funding freeze, stalled communication, and federal changes, significantly fewer scientific research grants are being awarded compared to previous years (as shown below).As of February 18, this means the U.S. is answering approximately 2,000 fewer research questions—questions that could improve Americans’ health, quality of life, and longevity. While the immediate impact may not be obvious, a continued slowdown will create a ripple effect, jeopardizing future health outcomes and undermining the U.S.’s leadership in biomedical innovation and advancement.

Severe flu season raises concerns about brain complications in kids -- As this year's severe flu season rages across the country, federal health officials are investigating a rise in rare but life-threatening brain complications in children. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says at least 19,000 people have died from the flu so far this winter, including 86 children. New data show that nine of those child deaths involved serious brain complications tied to the flu, the CDC reported Feb. 27 in it's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). The condition, known as influenza-associated encephalopathy or encephalitis (IAE), is a rare type of brain inflammation triggered by the flu. In severe cases, children can develop acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE), a dangerous form of brain damage linked to viral infections like flu. While IAE is rare, the CDC's preliminary data for the 2024–25 flu season link 13% of child flu deaths to these brain complications. Among 1,840 pediatric flu deaths reported to the CDC since 2010, 166 children (9%) had these brain complications. In some past seasons, the percentage was lower (4% in 2013–14 and 0% in 2020–21 when flu dropped to a historic low during the COVID pandemic). In other seasons, it was as high as 14% (2011–12 season). One challenge for public health experts, The Associated Press reported, is that there's no official system to track IAE or ANE cases in the U.S.. This makes it hard to know if this year's numbers are higher than usual. The CDC has asked state health departments to report any additional cases this season. It is encouraging hospitals to test for flu in children with severe neurological symptoms and to report those cases to local health departments. So far this season, four of the nine children with flu-linked brain complications had the most severe type (ANE). All were under age 5. Two of these children had received their flu shots, and two had not. All four required mechanical ventilation (life support to help them breathe), and two experienced seizures during their hospital stay, according to MMWR. Doctors and hospitals have previously warned to watch for symptoms such as seizures or hallucinations in children with the flu. "Progression to severe neurologic impairment and death from IAE can occur rapidly after onset of influenza symptoms," the report read. "Thus, prompt recognition and intervention are crucial, including neurocritical supportive care for patients with increased intracranial pressure and management of multiorgan failure." Despite the severe flu season, only about 45% of Americans have received their flu shots so far. While not great at blocking infections, the vaccine's main role "is to keep you out of the hospital and to keep you alive," Vanderbilt University vaccine expert Dr. William Schaffner told The Associated Press. Effectiveness of the shot varies from year to year. Preliminary CDC data released Thursday show the flu shot reduced the risk of hospitalization by 64% to 78% for vaccinated children and 41% to 55% for vaccinated adults.

US flu ebbs for third straight week, but impact on healthcare remains - US flu activity last week declined for the third week in a row, but major impacts are still being felt at hospitals and outpatient clinics, with 16 more pediatric flu deaths reported, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest update. With the nation still in the grips of a high-severity season for the first time since 2017-18, test positivity for flu last week was still high, at 18.9%, but shows a declining trend. Nationally, the percentage of outpatient visits for flulike illness—currently just shy of 5%—has been above the national baseline for 14 weeks in a row, and all areas of the country remain above their regional baselines.Though the nation is in the latter part of the flu season, when influenza B activity often spikes, 96% of positive flu tests at public health labs last week were influenza A. Of subtyped influenza A viruses, 54.4% were the 2009 H1N1 strain and 45.6% were H3N2. Hospitalizations tracked through the FluSurv-NET show that the cumulative rate last week was the highest since the 2010-11 season, and the CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) Hospital Respiratory Data show that more than 29,500 people were hospitalized for flu last week, showing a downward trend. Overall deaths from flu declined, but again outpaced COVID-19 deaths. The 16 newly reported pediatric flu deaths pushed the season's total to 114. That compares with 187 deaths for all of 2022-23 and 207 last season. Of the latest deaths, 15 were linked to influenza A and 1 to influenza B. Of 9 subtyped influenza A samples, 5 were H1N1 and 4 were H3N2. For COVID, test positivity remains stable, and emergency department visits and hospitalizations continue to decline, the CDC said in its weekly respiratory virus update. The percentage of deaths from COVID, at 1.1%, was similar to the previous week.Wastewater detections of SARS-CoV-2 declined from the moderate to the low level, with the highest levels in the South.

Interim data on flu vaccines estimate overall moderate protection in Europe, China - Estimates of current mid-season flu vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Europe and China range from 32% to 58% overall, with greater protection against influenza B than A, according to three studies published in Eurosurveillance. In Europe, the 2009 H1N1 influenza A strain is the predominant flu virus and is circulating along with influenza A(H3N2) and B/Victoria. Public health researchers who analyzed eight test-negative studies from 17 European countries (five single- and three multi-country) estimated an interim all-age influenza A VE of 32% to 53% in primary care from September 2024 to January 2025. In this setting, it was least effective among children and adults aged 65 years and older.In hospitals, VE was 33% to 56%, with some signals of lower VE by subtype and higher VE against influenza B (58% or higher in both settings).In summary, flu vaccination prevented one third to more than three quarters of infections in primary care or hospitals, but protection varied by age-group and study. The vaccine protected a third to over a half of participants against influenza A infection, the main circulating subtype. Researchers in France, who reported high levels of flu circulation in Europe starting in November 2024, conducted a test-negative study using data on 44,420 flu-negative and 15,052 flu-positive people from more than 1,600 French community labs from October 2024 to February 2025. Overall VE for all age-groups was 42%, with 26% against influenza A and 75% against influenza B. Estimated VE was 60% among people aged 0 to 64 years, falling to 22% among those aged 65 and older. VE among symptomatic participants was 41% both for those who had respiratory symptoms and those who had a fever. Flu vaccine uptake among participants was 6.5% in adults aged 18 to 64 years and 36% in those 65 and older, rising in the overall population from 1.8% in week 44 to 19% in week 52 in 2024 and up to 52% in older adults. "Preliminary findings for the 2024/25 influenza season highlight the continued value of vaccination in reducing influenza burden, with effectiveness varying by virus type and age group," the study authors concluded. Chinese researchers used a test-negative study design to estimate VE among non-hospitalized patients in Beijing, where H1N1 predominated (99.3%), with all 38 sequenced strains clustered in clade 6B.1A.5a.2a and 37 of 38 antigenically similar to the vaccine strain. The study was based on data from the Influenza Surveillance System in Beijing, which includes 40 sentinel hospitals and 19 network labs, from October 2024 to January 2025. A total of 8,775 patients with influenza-like illness were recruited, with 76.8% testing negative for flu and 23.2% testing positive. VE against infection with any flu virus was 48.5%, while it was 48.7% against H1N1. Vaccination in the current or previous season against any flu virus was 52.5% to 54.9% effective, respectively, compared with no vaccination in both seasons."Our study found a moderate VE (48.5%) against medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza, similar to the interim finding of Canada (53%)," the authors wrote. "In comparison, VE in Beijing was below 45% in the previous three seasons, while in Europe, it ranged from 30% to 53%, and in the United States, it varied between 19% and 48% over the past 10 seasons." Last week the WHO announced its advisory committee's recommendations on the strains to include for the Northern Hemisphere's 2025-26 flu season, which change the H3N2 components but keep the current 2009 H1N1 and influenza B strains the same.The three strains recommended for the trivalent (three-strain) vaccine are also the same as those recommended for the Southern Hemisphere's 2025 season vaccine, which the group weighed in on at its meetings in September 2024.

Measles cases reported in Philadelphia area and in Texas traveler - In a statement yesterday, health officials said they are tracing contacts and examining exposures related to the shuttle bus, as well as at two health facilities, including a pediatrics office in Plymouth Meeting and an emergency department in King of Prussia. The case appears to be Pennsylvania’s first of 2025. Elsewhere, health officials in Austin, Texas, reported the first case in Travis County since 2019, which involves an unvaccinated infant who was exposed to the virus during a vacation overseas. In a statement, Austin Public Health said it doesn’t expect that any exposures will be connected to the case and that the infant’s family members are all vaccinated and isolating at home.The two cases come amid sporadic travel-related cases in a handful of states, along with a few outbreaks, including a large one centered in the South Plains area of west Texas that has resulted in 146 cases since late January, one of them fatal. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in its latest weekly update reported 71 more measles cases, raising the total for 2025 to 164 from nine jurisdictions. Of the total, 153 are part of three outbreaks, most of them related to the ongoing event in western Texas. Most of the patients are unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination statuses. Thirty-two of the patients were hospitalized.

Parents rush to vaccinate children after measles outbreak hits Texas -- Five-year-old Shado is one of dozens of children being rushed to a health center in the US state of Texas to get the measles vaccine, after the recent death in the area of a child who was not immunized against the highly contagious virus. "Look at you, you're so brave," the nurse administering the shot tells the young girl, who is sitting on her father's lap. The death came as immunization rates have declined nationwide, with the latest cases in the west Texas town of Lubbock concentrated in a Mennonite religious community that has historically shown vaccine hesitancy. Mark Medina brought his children, Shado and her brother Azazel, after they heard about that death. "It kind of sparked fear and we're like, 'Alright, it's time to go get vaccinated. Let's go,'" the 31-year-old father told AFP. Rachel Dolan, a Lubbock health official, said the initial outbreak spread rapidly through the community south of the town, potentially fueled by a lack of vaccination. "It's the most contagious virus that we know of, and so just that one little spark, you know, really caused a lot of cases and rapid spread among that population," she said. This year more than 130 measles cases already have been reported in west Texas and neighboring New Mexico, the vast majority in unvaccinated children. Around 20 have been hospitalized in Texas, and officials warn the outbreak is likely to grow. The disease's spread comes as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has long spread falsehoods about the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, begins his tenure as President Donald Trump's health secretary. Kennedy has downplayed the outbreak, saying: "It's not unusual. You have measles outbreaks every year."

CDC team assisting with Texas measles outbreak as case total rises -- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today that its investigators are partnering with the Texas State Department of Health Services (TSDHS) to respond to the measles outbreak in west Texas. On X, the CDC said the partnership, called Epi-Aid, involves Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) officers, which provide on-site support for 1 to 3 weeks to help quickly control health threats while led by local authorities.Meanwhile, the TSDHS today reported 13 more measles cases, raising the outbreak total to 159. So far, 22 patients have been hospitalized, and the number of deaths remains at 1. The number of affected counties, located in the state’s South Plains area in the west, remains at nine, with most reported from Gaines County, which has been the outbreak epicenter.Of the 159 cases, 80 are unvaccinated and 74 have an unknown vaccination status. Five patients had received at least one dose of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.In neighboring Lea County, New Mexico, the number of measles cases remained at 9, according to thelatest update from the New Mexico Department of Health.

Second death reported as measles cases climb in Texas, New Mexico -Health officials in New Mexico said yesterday that an unvaccinated adult who recently died tested positive for measles.Although the cause of death is still under investigation, officials with the New Mexico Department of Health (NMDOH) said their lab had confirmed the presence of the measles virus in the Lea County resident, who did not seek medical treatment before passing.The case is part of New Mexico's growing measles outbreak, which is now up to 30 cases, NMDOH officials reported today. All the cases have been in Lea County, which borders Gaines County in Texas—the center of that state's ongoing measles outbreak. NMDOH officials urged residents to get vaccinated to ensure protection against the highly contagious virus."We don’t want to see New Mexicans getting sick or dying from measles," Chad Smelser, MD, NMDOH deputy state epidemiologist, said in a press release. "The measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine is the best protection against this serious disease."Meanwhile, the measles outbreak in west Texas, which began in late January, continues to grow. Officials with the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) said today in an update that the nine-county outbreak is now at 198 cases, with 137 in Gaines County. Twenty-three of the case-patients have been hospitalized, with one death reported in an unvaccinated school-age child. It was the first US measles death since 2015. Of the cases, 80 are unvaccinated and 113 have unknown vaccination status, and 153 have been in children under 18 years. Gaines County has one of the highest rates of school-aged children in Texas who have opted out of at least one vaccine. A CDC update today puts reported US measles cases for the year at 222 as of March 6, with three outbreaks (defined as 3 cases or more). A total of 285 US measles cases were reported in all of 2024. This year's cases have occurred in 12 states, and 94% have been in people who are unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination status. In a Health Alert Network advisory today, the CDC said more cases are expected in the rapidly growing outbreaks in Texas and New Mexico. The agency also said that, with spring and summer travel season under way, healthcare professionals should be vigilant for cases of febrile rash that meet the measles definition and should ensure that patients planning international travel are up to date on MMR vaccine. The outbreak is putting a spotlight on new Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine critic who has promoted the debunked theory that the MMR vaccine is linked to the rise in autism diagnoses. Despite the existence of numerous studies that have found no such association, Reuters reports today that the CDC is planning a large study on vaccines and autism. Although Kennedy said in an opinion piece on the Fox News website that vaccines protect children from measles and contribute to community immunity, he also said the decision to vaccinate is a personal one, that improved sanitation and nutrition prior to introduction of the MMR vaccine in 1960 were responsible for most of the reductions in measles deaths, and that good nutrition "remains a best defense against most chronic and infectious illnesses." In contrast, communication from both Texas and New Mexico health officials has emphasized that vaccination is the best way to prevent measles. In a subsequent interview, Kennedy also promoted the benefits of vitamin A for treating measles, which has no specific antiviral treatment. A health alert from the NMDOH notes that while vitamin A may be administered in children and infants who have severe measles as part of supportive management, it will not prevent infection and should not be given prophylactically.Mati Hlatshwayo Davis, MD, director of health for the City of St. Louis, said vitamin A is not a replacement for the MMR vaccine. She explained that while vitamin A supplementation has been shown to reduce measles mortality in malnourished populations in resource-limited countries, where vitamin A deficiencies are common, the benefits in well-nourished populations are unclear. Davis also noted that high-dose vitamin A therapy carries safety risks, including liver damage and increased intracranial pressure.

RFK Jr.'s push for vitamin A to contain Texas measles outbreak worries experts --Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s rhetoric on Texas’s measles outbreak is concerning physicians, who fear his public guidance is misguided and verges on being dangerous as he promotes vitamins and steroids as ways of treating infections. The Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS) says 159 measles cases have been identified, including one unvaccinated child who died last week shortly after being hospitalized. Only five of the infected individuals are confirmed to have been vaccinated against measles. Physicians in the state have urged parents to isolate their children and ensure that all members of their household have received a measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine to mitigate the spread. About 80 percent of the measles cases in Texas have been found in children. Kennedy has long questioned the safety and efficacy of vaccines, particularly the MMR vaccine. In the face of the outbreak, he seemingly softened his stance, writing in an op-ed for Fox News that the vaccines “not only protect individual children from measles, but also contribute to community immunity,” though he maintained that getting immunized should be a personal choice. At the same time, Kennedy has begun promoting the use of vitamin A, cod liver oil and the steroid budesonide as a way of treating measles, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updating its guidance on measles management to include “physician-administered outpatient vitamin A.” There are no antivirals specifically indicated for measles. Most cases will resolve on their own rest at home. People who are hospitalized for measles receive supportive care until they recover. HHS did not respond to a request for comment on Kennedy’s promotion of vitamin A, cod liver oil and budesonide for treating measles. Kennedy’s encouragement of vitamin A for children with measles is not entirely unfounded. It has long been observed that a vitamin A deficiency coupled with a measles infection can be devastating for a child. “We know with some certainty is that in settings where a lot of children have vitamin A deficiency, giving vitamin A to children with measles saves lives, prevents complications,” Andy Pavia, professor of pediatrics and medicine at the University of Utah, told The Hill. But a measles patient without a vitamin A deficiency may not be helped by that prescription. According to Susan McLellan, professor in the infectious disease division at the University of Texas Medical Branch, there is “no evidence that vitamin A supplementation improves the outcome of measles in a child who has no vitamin A deficiency in the United States.” “The relative protective efficacy of vitamin A relative to immunization is minuscule in a non-vitamin A deficient population,” McLellan added.

Why you could catch norovirus more than once this season - People in the U.K. who have already had norovirus this season could still be at risk due to a shift in circulating strains, according to new data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). Norovirus is a highly contagious stomach bug that is easily caught from someone else with the virus, or by touching infected surfaces or eating food that has been prepared by someone with it. The latest data shows norovirus cases are continuing to rise. At the beginning of February 2025, cases were more than double the five-season average for the same two-week period and are the highest since detailed UKHSA reporting began. The impact of the surge in cases is being seen the most in hospitals and care homes, with infections highest among people aged 65 and over. Commenting on the situation, Dr. Damien Tully, Associate Professor at the Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (MRC/UVRI and LSHTM) Uganda Research Unit, explained why two strains circulating at the same time are responsible for the increase in cases, and why it's possible to catch both strains this season. By researching the evolution and epidemiology of infectious diseases and how they interact with their hosts, Dr. Tully and colleagues at LSHTM are working to uncover the clues to norovirus's success, to help unlock the potential for a future vaccine. Dr. Tully said, "Since 2012, there has been one dominant norovirus variant circulating in the UK called GII.4. The surge in norovirus activity this season is due to a new variant of a different type of norovirus called GII.17 which, over the last seven years, has circulated at low levels and has only been responsible for around 1% of cases. "Given the current variant's low prevalence over past years, most people are susceptible to infection, which explains the huge surge in cases. Similarly, we know that infection with the variant that has previously caused the majority of cases (GII.4) will not confer any immunity to other strains of norovirus, so those who have experienced infection will still be susceptible to other strains. "Reduced population immunity due to lower exposure during COVID-19 may have also created an environment where multiple strains can spread more easily.

Survey shows most people unaware of extent of HPV risk in men - While most people know women infected with human papillomavirus (HPV) can develop cervical cancer, far fewer are aware the virus poses significant cancer risks to men, as well, and that men are more likely than women to have HPV.And a second study spotlights the rising incidence of cervical cancer rates in rural US counties. The findings on HPV knowledge and misconceptions come from a new survey conducted by The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center. Researchers said the findings are concerning, especially because rates of throat and tongue cancers in men linked to HPV are rising.Overall, the survey included 1,005 respondents who completed the survey in early February of this year.Among respondents, 45% did not know if HPV was linked to cancers other than cervical cancer. A similar percentage, 42%, said HPV was more common in women than in men. HPV is actually more common in men, but only women are screened for the virus, the authors said. “This is concerning because more men are infected with HPV than women and they could unknowingly spread it to their partners,” said Electra Paskett, PhD, a professor in The Ohio State University College of Medicine, in a press release from the university’s Wexner Medical Center. Moreover, many of the cancers caused by HPV, including cervical and oropharyngeal (tonsil and tongue base) do not produce symptoms until they are advanced. Ohio State researchers said the rapidly rising rates of HPV-related oropharyngeal (tonsil and tongue base) cancers could be among the most common forms of cancer in adults between the ages of 45 and 65 years old if trends continue. “It can take years or even decades for the genetic changes caused by HPV to take effect and transform into cancer,” said Matthew Old, MD, a head and neck surgeon at Ohio State. “Once exposed, there are currently no treatments for HPV infections, and many who are unvaccinated unknowingly carry and spread high-risk strains of the virus. That’s why vaccination is so important.”

Bat-infecting merbecovirus HKU5-CoV lineage 2 can use human ACE2 as a cell entry receptor - Introduction” Zoonotic spillover is believed to be responsible for the outbreaks of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. Bats harbor the highest proportion of genetically diverse coronaviruses (CoVs) and are considered potential natural reservoirs of the three highly pathogenic human CoVs, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were documented transmitted to humans via game animals (e.g., civets) or domestic animals (e.g., dromedary camels), whereas the intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2 remain unclear. Both in vitro and in vivo studies have demonstrated that bat merbecoviruses, which are phylogenetically related to MERS-CoV, pose a high risk of spillover to humans, either through direct transmission or facilitated by intermediate hosts. The identification of bat-related merbecoviruses in pangolins (HKU4-CoV) and minks (HKU5-CoV) suggests frequent cross-species transmission of these viruses between bats and other animal species. Receptor recognition and proteolytic activation of the membrane fusion machinery are two critical steps during CoV cell entry, determining the host range and tissue tropism of the viruses. CoV receptor engagement is mediated by receptor-binding domain (RBD) in S1 subunit of their spike (S) glycoprotein, while the membrane fusion between viral and host membranes is promoted by the S2 subunit that activated by the host proteolytic cleavage of S protein. CoVs display promiscuous receptor usage and diverse RBD- binding modes. Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4), angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), aminopeptidase N (APN), carcinoembryonic-antigen-related cell adhesion molecule 1 (CEACAM1), and transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) are five well- known functional protein receptors for CoVs. The same receptor usage can be shared by CoVs from different subgenera, as exemplified by the ACE2 receptor usage by human CoV NL63 (subgenus Setracovirus) and various SARSr-CoV (subgenus Sarbecovirus) with distinct RBD architechtures. Additionally, CoVs from the same genus, even the same subgenus, may recognize distinct receptors. For instance, unlike SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 using ACE2 as receptor, betacoronaviruses MERS-CoV and MHV recognize receptors DPP4 and CEACAM1, respectively, whereas clade 2 sarbecoviruses were documented to utilize a yet unidentified receptor other than ACE2 for cellular entry. Members of the subgenus Merbecovirus also exhibit diverse receptor recognition and binding modes. While DPP4 has been documented as the entry receptor for MERS-CoV, HKU4, and bat MERSr-CoVs (BtCoV-422 and HKU25), several bat MERSr-CoVs, including NeoCoV and MOW15-22, use bat ACE2 orthologs for cell entry and display distinct patterns of multi-species ACE2 tropism. During the preparation of this manuscript, two independent teams led by Professors Lekto and Veesler, respectively, released their results that lineage 1 HKU5-CoV (here referred to as HKU5-CoV-1) also use ACE2 orthologs from only a few species including their host, Pipistrellus abramus (P.abr) bat as receptor. However, neither study reported that these HKU5-CoV-1 can efficiently utilize human ACE2 for cellular entry. In this study, we identified a distinct lineage of merbecovirus HKU5 (lineage 2), here referred to as HKU5-CoV-2, from Pipistrellus spp. bats. We demonstrated that bat HKU5- CoV-2 (BtHKU5-CoV-2) efficiently utilized human ACE2 and ACE2 orthologs from various mammalian species for cell entry. Cryoelectron microscopy (cryo-EM) analysis of the complex between BtHKU5-CoV-2 RBD and human ACE2 revealed a binding mode distinct from other known ACE2-using CoVs (e.g., SARS-CoV-2, NL63, NeoCoV, and MOW15-22). Single mutation on most of residues directly participated in BtHKU5-CoV-2 RBD and human ACE2 interaction have limited impact on receptor binding and viral infection. BtHKU5-CoV-2 was successfully isolated from bat sample and confirmed with its ability to infect human ACE2-expressing cells, as well as human respiratory and enteric organoids.

Recent Virus Research Should Raise Alarm - There’s a central question that many scientists face: How can scientific discoveries drive humanity’s progress without posing a dire risk to it? As virus experts, we’re committed to research that uncovers pandemic threats and helps protect people from them. But we are concerned about how some scientists are experimenting with viruses in ways that could put all of us in harm’s way. In a study published in the scientific journal Cell, a group of researchers reported the discovery of a coronavirus in bats that has the potential to spread to humans. In a series of experiments, the scientists show that this virus, HKU5-CoV-2, can efficiently infect cells of humans and a wide range of other animal cells. The findings raise the possibility that humans and other animals could be infected by this virus. This coronavirus belongs to a subgroup of viruses that are classified alongside the one that causes MERS and that can have fatality rates far higher than that of the virus that caused the Covid pandemic. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, where many of the researchers work or have worked, is at the center of the controversy regarding the origin of the Covid pandemic. We do not imply that the institute is responsible for the Covid pandemic, nor do we have any certainty that this newly discovered virus has the potential to cause the next one. What worries us is the insufficient safety precautions the researchers took when studying this coronavirus. Research laboratories have different levels of security, based on its categorization on a biosafety level scale, from BSL-1, the lowest, to BSL-4. Lower-security labs are used for studying infectious agents that either don’t cause disease in people or pose only moderate risk. The higher-security laboratories are for studying pathogens that can spread in the air and have the potential to cause lethal infections. BSL-4 labs are the ones featured in movies where scientists walk around in what look like spacesuits with air hoses and shower in decontamination chambers when their work is done. BSL-3 labs limit access to specifically trained staff members, have locking double doors for enhanced security and specific air handling and sterilization systems. Workers wear head-to-toe personal protective equipment and are under medical surveillance for signs of laboratory-acquired infection that could pose a risk to others. Decisions about what level of precaution is appropriate for research are typically made by a study’s lead scientist and an institutional biosafety committee that includes scientists, physicians, administrators and members of the local community. The researchers behind the Cell paper began by studying the new virus in ways that do not require growing live virus — like through computer analysis. But after establishing that the virus can probably infect human cells, the researchers performed experiments with the fully infectious virus. They did not conduct these experiments in a BSL-3 or BSL-4 laboratory but in a laboratory described as BSL-2 plus, a designation that is not standardized and not formally recognized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and that we think is insufficient for work with potentially dangerous respiratory viruses. This work was apparently approved by the local institutional biosafety committee and adhered to national biosafety standards. But it is not sufficient for work with a new virus that could have significant risks for people worldwide. Herein lies a crucial problem that the world must address. Scientists and policymakers in the United States have spent years discussing and debating how to regulate risky virus research, sometimes contentiously. But this work happens in other countries, too — and not all countries approach questions about the safety of this work in the same way. So one country’s decisions about how to approach studying risky pathogens can go only so far. Wherever in the world it happens, work with viruses that have the potential to become threats to public health should be restricted to facilities and scientists committed to the highest level of safety. As the leading international public health agency, the World Health Organization should take the lead in rigorously clarifying these standards. But we need other mechanisms to ensure that researchers worldwide follow the rules. Agencies inside and outside government that fund this sort of work should require proof that investigators meet global standards. Scientific journals should have similar standards for the studies they accept.

DoxyPEP study shows an increase of resistance in targeted and 'bystander' bacteria -- A study of bacteria from patients at a sexual health clinic found increasing resistance to tetracyclines in Neisseria gonorrhoeaeand impacts on "off-target" bacteria following the adoption of doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (doxyPEP), researchers with the University of Washington (UW) reported last week inClinical Infectious Diseases.In June 2023, officials with Public Health–Seattle and King County (PHSKC) issued guidance on the use of doxyPEP based on the release of clinical trial data from the DoxyPEP Studyshowing that the intervention significantly reduced the risk of chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea in men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women with a history of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The department was one of several around the country to immediately adopt the intervention, which was eventually recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in June 2024 and has subsequently demonstrated efficacy against STIs in real-world settings. Despite the documented efficacy of doxyPEP against STIs, concerns remain about its impact on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among both the targeted bacterial pathogens that cause STIs and "bystander bacteria" that reside in the anatomical sites where STIs occur and in other parts of the body. Data from the DoxyPEP Study had shown that while the use of doxyPEP increased the expression of tetracycline resistance (tetR) genes in Staphylococcus aureus bacteria sampled from trial participants, it did not increase colonization with tetracycline-resistant S aureus or alter the diversity of the gut microbiome. But public health officials have cautioned that resistance in S aureus and other bystander bacteria needs to be monitored as doxyPEP use grows. To assess the impact of doxyPEP, the researchers analyzed gonorrhoeae surveillance data among patients at PHSKC's sexual health clinic from 2017 through 2024. They also evaluated nasopharyngeal colonization with S aureus and group A Streptococcus (GAS). The analysis of gonorrhea isolates from 2,312 patients (75% MSM) found that the prevalence of tetR was 27% from 2017 to the beginning of 2023, then rose to 70% by the middle of 2024. Similarly, the prevalence ofN gonorrhoeae with high-level tetR increased from 2% to 65% from 2021 through 2024. Taking more than three doses per month of doxyPEP was associated with both tetR and high-level tetR in N gonorrhoeae. The authors say that while the rise in tetR and high-level tetR in gonorrhea could also be connected to a dramatic shift toward greater doxycycline use to treat chlamydia and non-gonococcal urethritis that began prior to the introduction of doxyPEP, use of doxyPEP is now "contributing to the antimicrobial pressure driving resistance." Regardless of the cause, they say that increasing tetR is likely to severely limit doxyPEP's preventive impact on gonorrhea infections.The analysis also found that while S aureus colonization was less common among doxy PEP users than non-users (27% vs 36%), colonization with both tetR S aureus and GAS were more common among doxyPEP users than non-users (18% vs 8% and 9% vs 4%, respectively). The authors say the clinical significance of this latter finding is unclear but note that the PHSKC has recently revised its doxyPEP guidelines to recommend that medical providers not use doxycycline for skin or lower respiratory tract infections in doxyPEP users.

European data show high resistance to commonly used antibiotics in human, animal bacteria -- Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance data from Europe show resistance to commonly used antibiotics remains high in key bacterial pathogens found in humans and animals, European health and food safety officials reported today.The joint summary report from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) covering surveillance data from 33 European countries in 2022-23 found that high proportions of Salmonella and Campylobacter isolates from humans and food-producing animals (chickens, fattening turkeys, fattening pigs, and calves) were resistant to ampicillin, tetracyclines, and sulfonamides. All three antibiotics are commonly used to treat infections in human and veterinary medicine.The zoonotic and indicator bacteria covered in the joint report—Campylobacter, Salmonella, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus—are routinely monitored for resistance levels because they can spread from animals to people through the ingestion or handling of contaminated meat, direct contact with food-producing animals, and environmental contamination. While European Union countries have made great strides in reducing antibiotic use in food-producing animals in recent years, it's widely believed that routine antibiotic use on farms is contributing to rising rates of AMR.EFSA and ECDC officials say monitoring resistance trends in these pathogens and identifying specific resistance patterns in humans and animals inform risk assessment and help evaluate targeted interventions."A comprehensive One-Health approach is essential to tackling AMR," EFSA Chief Scientist Carlos Das Neves, DVM, PhD, and ECDC Chief Scientist Piotr Kramarz, MD, said in a press release. "Robust surveillance systems, prudent antimicrobial use, and cross-sector collaboration are critical to mitigate the risk posed by antibiotic-resistant bacteria that can spread between animals and humans."Among the more concerning findings in the report is that data from more than half of European countries show high resistance to ciprofloxacin in human isolates of Campylobacter jejuni (71.9%) and Campylobacter coli (75%) and poultry-associated Salmonella serovars (primarily Salmonella Kentucky [80.5%]). Ciprofloxacin is a critically important antibiotic for treating Salmonella and Campylobacter infections in people, but the report notes that because of the high levels of ciprofloxacin resistance, fluoroquinolones can no longer be recommended for treating Campylobacter infections."The high level of ciprofloxacin resistance in Campylobacter is a concern, given that fluoroquinolones, like ciprofloxacin, are commonly used to treat diarrhoea in humans," the report states. "Although antibiotic treatment for human campylobacteriosis is generally discouraged due to the self-limiting nature of the disease, it may be necessary for immunocompromised patients or those with co-morbidities."High to extremely high levels of ciprofloxacin resistance were also found in Campylobacter from all food-producing animals and Salmonella and E coli from poultry. In both humans and animals, levels of ciprofloxacin resistance were higher for C coli than for C jejuni.Combined resistance to ciprofloxacin and erythromycin, another critically important antibiotic, was found to be low overall in Salmonella, Campylobacter, and E coli but was higher in certain Salmonella serovars and in C coli from humans and animals in some countries. Multidrug-resistance was found in 19.1% of Salmonella,0.6% of C jejuni, and 8.6% of C coli isolated from people.The data also show that in imported fresh meat of broiler chickens and turkeys sampled at border-control posts, resistance to third-generation cephalosporins was found in very high and moderate levels inSalmonella and E coli, respectively.As with previous EFSA/ECDC reports, AMR rates ranged across reporting countries, bacterial species, and antibiotics.

Study finds 'pronounced' levels of antimicrobial resistance in cancer patients A systematic review and meta-analysis found a high level of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria isolated from cancer patients, researchers reported late last week in BMC Infectious Diseases. Although cancer patients are known to be at increased risk of infections caused by drug-resistant pathogens, there has been no systematic review of the global prevalence of AMR in the common pathogenic bacteria known to cause infections in cancer patients. To address this gap in knowledge, researchers from the University of Ghana Medical School reviewed studies published from 2000 to 2024 on cancer patients with infections caused byStaphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Enterococcus faecium, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Enterobacter spp.The review identified 132 articles involving 49,638 cancer patients in 39 countries. Most studies (67%) reported AMR in multiple pathogens, while 33% reported resistance in single pathogens. For E coli, resistance prevalence was highest for penicillins (81.8%), followed by cotrimoxazole (65.8%) and monobactams (61.6%). For K pneumoniae, the highest prevalence of resistance was observed for penicillins (99.0%) and cotrimoxazole (70.9%), while A baumannii had high resistance prevalence to multiple antimicrobial classes, including third-generation cephalosporins (84.1%), fourth-generation cephalosporins (80.8%), carbapenems (82.6%), fluoroquinolones (80.4%), beta-lactam/beta-lactamase inhibitors (79.2%), cotrimoxazole (75.8%), and aminoglycosides (64.1%).Enterobacter spp and E faecium showed high resistance prevalence to penicillins, at 91.8% and 90.6% respectively, while P aeruginosa had a high prevalence of resistance to third-generation cephalosporins (49.4%), and S aureus showed high prevalence to macrolides (55.6%) and methicillin (45.3%).The study authors suggest possible underlying factors for high AMR levels among cancer patients include immunosuppression, prolonged antibiotic exposure, invasive medical devices, and intensive treatments such as chemotherapy and radiation therapy."These procedures and treatments can weaken their immune system, increasing their susceptibility to infections," they wrote. "Moreover, the acquisition of resistant bacteria from healthcare settings is significant, considering that cancer patients spend a substantial amount of time in these facilities."

Study finds higher prevalence of MRSA strains in low-income countries - A systematic review and meta-analysis finds that colonizing strains of Staphyloccus aureus have a higher prevalence of resistance and virulence factors in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries (HICs), researchers reported yesterday in the Journal of Infection. S aureus is known to colonize the nose and throat and can lead to a range of infections, some of which can be life-threatening, especially when the infection is caused by methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA). While several studies have documented the prevalence of S aureus in HICs, the prevalence of human colonization by S aureus in LMICs is not well known. To determine the pooled prevalence of S aureus colonization among healthy individuals in LMICs, a team led by researchers at the University of Sheffield reviewed 139 studies involving 59,732 participants in 40 countries. As secondary objective was to assess antimicrobial resistance and virulence among colonizing strains. The pooled prevalence of S aureus at nose and/or throat was 26.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 23.8% to 29.1%), with the highest prevalence found in South America (36.7%; 95% CI, 24.6% to 48.9%), followed by Africa (31.0%; 95% CI, 25.7% to 36.7%) and Asia (22.4%; 95% CI, 19.5% to 25.4%). By comparison, previous studies of HICs have found a pooled prevalence rate of 21.6% in European countries and 28.6% in the United States. The pooled prevalence of MRSA in colonizing S aureus strains was 15% (95% CI, 11.8% to 18.6%), with a higher prevalence observed in Africa compared with Asia and South America (22.5% vs 13.1% vs 5.4%, respectively). Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) toxin genes, which are putatively associated with virulence and transmission, were present in 26.4% of 2,531 isolates. The study authors note that studies from Europe and the United States have reported MRSA prevalence of 0% to 2% among colonizing S aureus strains, while PVL has been detected in less than 1% of European studies.

Uganda confirms fatal Ebola case in 4-year-old --Over the weekend the World Health Organization (WHO) announced a new setback in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak. The country reported a new fatal case, which involved a 4-year-old child who died on February 25. According to the Associated Press, there were no other details about the death, and local health officials were not commenting on the case. The child died while hospitalized in Kampala, the same city where the index patient, a male nurse, was hospitalized briefly before dying from the virus in late January. Last month, health authorities maintained that the outbreak was under control after eight patients had recovered, but there is still no clarity about how and where the index patient acquired Ebola. All eight patients had been case contacts of the index case. The new case raises the death toll to 2, and the case count to 10 in this outbreak. This is the sixth Ebola Sudan outbreak in Uganda's history, with the most recent outbreak identified in 2022.

Two fatal probable cases reported in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak -- An investigation into Uganda's latest Ebola Sudan patient, a 4-year-old boy who recently died, revealed that his mother and newborn sibling died a few weeks earlier from likely Ebola virus infections, the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office said in its weekly health emergencies update.The report also notes that the 4-year-old boy, who initially received care on February 15, was taken to four healthcare facilities as his condition worsened, before his Ebola Sudan infection was confirmed in tests after he died on February 24. This fact raises the risk of additional transmission. Investigators found that the 4-year-old's mother had given birth to a newborn at a hospital in Kampala on January 23. She died on February 6 from an acute illness, and the baby died about a week later. Lab tests were not conducted after they died, and both bodies have been buried.The WHO said the mother and baby are considered probable case-patients, given their links to the 4-year-old boy whose fatal Ebola illness was recently confirmed. The outbreak total now stands at 12 cases, 10 of them confirmed. Four deaths are now linked to the outbreak. The boy was not a known contact of earlier cases, and investigations are under way to determine how the boy was exposed. So far, 201 new contacts have been identified in connection to his illness.In the middle of February, Uganda had discharged all of its Ebola patients, leading to hopes that the outbreak was nearing its end. The WHO said the new developments, however, highlight the risk of undetected transmission, especially given the delayed diagnosis and the child's movement across multiple healthcare facilities. Health officials have also said the low case-fatality rate (CFR), previously at 11.1%, was another hopeful sign, much lower than the CFR of 41% to 100% seen in earlier outbreaks involving Ebola Sudan. Now the boy's death and those of his mother and sibling raise the CFR to 33.3%. The WHO said the retrospective link to the primary outbreak cluster reveals gaps in contact tracing and surveillance and that the lack of testing in the child's deceased mother and newborn sibling raises more concerns about missed cases. "With no active cases currently in admission and all previous patients discharged, there is a critical window of opportunity to interrupt transmission," the agency said.

Second cluster reported in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak -A second illness cluster has been identified in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak, with the latest cases linked to the recently reported death of a 4-year-old boy from the virus, officials from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said today.Both newly confirmed patients are undergoing treatment, the agency said.Ngashi Ngongo, MD, MPH, PhD, principal adviser to the Africa CDC's director-general and its mpox incident manager, said at a briefing today that there are no direct epidemiologic links between the new cluster and the last one. He added, however, that genetic sequencing shows that the same strain is involved, which likely rules out a new jump from animals and suggests that undetected transmission is highly likely.Besides the boy, two other cases were confirmed, which follow a report yesterday from the World Health Organization African regional office that the boy's mother had died a few weeks earlier after an acute illness after giving birth. The baby died about a week later, and lab tests weren't conducted before they were buried. The WHO said the two are now considered as probable cases. The new developments push the outbreak total to 14 cases, 12 confirmed and 2 listed as probable—involving the mother of the 4-year-old and her baby. Two deaths are reported among the confirmed cases, involving the index patient, who was a healthcare worker, and the 4-year-old boy, who recently died.Five districts are now affected, up from three in the Africa CDC's last report.Mosoka Papa Fallah, PhD, acting director of the science and innovation directorate at Africa CDC, said the two newly confirmed patients are isolated and receiving treatment. Officials said 69 new contacts have been identified and are under monitoring. Fallah said intensive efforts are under way to better identify how the outbreak started. Retrospective serosurveys will be done among the earlier contacts to assess via antibodies detected in the blood if any were exposed to the virus earlier. He also said health officials will be doing a deeper dive into medical records that involve illness clusters and deaths. The outbreak was first announced at the end of January, and, within days, Uganda's health ministry, with support from its partners, launched a trial of a candidate Ebola vaccine developed by the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, a nonprofit vaccine research organization based in New York City. Officials said today that 264 contacts have been vaccinated so far. The delivery of 2,000 doses of the antiviral drug remdesivir for treatment is ongoing.

Probe in DR Congo unexplained illness cluster shifts toward chemical or meningitis causes -- An ongoing investigation into an unexplained illness cluster in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Equateur province suggests chemical poisoning or rapid-onset bacterial meningitis might be causing the sudden onset of deaths in a village, especially in young men, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in an outbreak notice. There have been two unexplained illness clusters in Equateur Province, a smaller one in Bolomba Health Zone that began in January and a larger one in Basankusu Health Zone that began in early February, with a report of 24 unexplained deaths from a single village. The WHO said the epidemiological investigation doesn’t show a link between outbreaks at the two locations, which are about 100 miles apart and separated by dense forests and poor infrastructure. Fever was one of the symptoms in a broad case definition, and initial fears of Marburg or Ebola virus were ruled out in earlier testing. Of the now 53 deaths reported from Basankusu, most were reported from the same village. Time of symptom onset to death in the initial cluster was 1 day, with symptoms that included fever, chills, headaches, muscle aches, abdominal pains, diarrhea, sweating, dizziness, shortness of breath, agitation, and others. Adolescent and young adult males were disproportionately affected. With a rapidly declining incidence, suggesting that the event is not spreading in time or place, the WHO said. Enhanced surveillance using the broad case definition identified 1,318 suspected cases, which the WHO said makes the information difficult to interpret and probably covers a range of febrile illnesses, including malaria. About 50% tested positive on rapid tests, which the WHO said isn’t usual in an area where malaria is endemic. More samples, including cerebrospinal fluid, have been collected, and environmental samples have been collected to test for chemical causes, such as organophosphate contamination. “The definitive cause of illness remains undetermined. Further testing and field investigations are ongoing to better characterize the cases and deaths,” the group added.

Poisoning suspected in DR Congo mystery illness: WHO --Poisoning is suspected in an unexplained outbreak of illness in western DR Congo, the World Health Organization said Friday. The health scare is the latest to befall the poor central African country that has seen outbreaks including mpox, as well as deadly violence in its conflict-wracked east. In the western province of Equateur, there have been nearly 1,100 illnesses and 60 deaths since the start of the year showing symptoms including fever, headaches, joint pain and body aches, according to the WHO. The UN agency's emergencies director Mike Ryan said an investigation was underway, but tests had been negative for hemorrhagic fevers such as Marburg and Ebola. It "appears very much more like a toxic type event, either from a biologic perspective like meningitis or from chemical exposure," Ryan told an online press conference. Local authorities had indicated that "there is a very strong level of suspicion of a poisoning event" related to a water source in a village, he said. "Clearly, at the center of this, it would appear that we have some kind of poisoning event," he added. Earlier this month, 158 cases and 58 deaths were reported in Equateur's Basankusu zone, according to the WHO. Last week 141 more people fell ill in Basankusu, with no further deaths reported. In the nearby Bolamba zone, 12 people fell ill last month, including eight deaths. Unexplained deaths in southwest Democratic Republic of Congo in October-November last year were eventually put down to malaria and common respiratory infections, compounded by malnutrition. The vast country is struggling with "significant set of deaths and disease caused by multiple agents in a vulnerable population," Ryan said. He lamented that the world only seemed to pay attention when there seemed to be a threat that could spread beyond DR Congo. "Once we establish that it's not some major new Earth-killing virus, we all lose interest," he said.

Malaria endures in northwest Congo as officials seek cause of illnesses that have sickened hundreds --Hundreds of people have tested positive for malaria in northwest Congo as health officials try to understand what may be behind a surge of illnesses that has surpassed 1,000 cases and killed at least 60 people.The World Health Organization said that while malaria—a mosquito-borne disease—is prevalent in Congo's Equateur province, it has not yet ruled out other causes. It is unclear if the outbreaks are related, the U.N. health agency said in an update Thursday."Detailed epidemiological and clinical investigations, as well as further laboratory testing, are (still) needed," WHO's Africa office said.It said nearly 1,100 cases have been reported since the first outbreaks were discovered in two villages more than 100 miles apart in late January.Africa's top public health agency said infections have been detected in at five villages and that the agency is investigating whether water or food could be the cause of the infections, along with flu and typhoid.However, tests are "pointing toward malaria," Dr. Ngashi Ngongo of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in an online briefing Thursday.The first outbreak was detected in the village of Boloko after three children ate a bat and died within 48 hours. WHO has recorded 12 cases and eight deaths in Boloko. Nearly half of the people who died did so within hours of the onset of symptoms, health officials said this week.The village of Bomate, which is around 200 kilometers (125 miles) from Boloko, has been hardest hit: 98% of the cases and 86% of deaths have been recorded in Bomate in the Basankusu health zone, WHO said. Of 571 patients in Basankusu who were tested for malaria, 309—54.1%—tested positive, it said.Patients have shown common malaria symptoms such as fever and body aches. Other symptoms include chills, sweating, stiff neck, runny or bleeding nose, cough, vomiting and diarrhea.Eddy Djoboke said he and his family fled Bomate because they were afraid of falling sick. After they left, one of his children complained his neck and stomach hurt, suggesting he may have been infected before they fled."We were asked to have tests done and we are waiting for what happens next," Djoboke said.Marthe Biyombe, said her child became infected in Bomate and was suffering from body aches and fever. She said the hospital struggled to treat her child because of a lack of medication, but that she was able to buy drugs privately and WHO doctors eventually arrived with more supplies."When we arrived at the hospital, we went two weeks without medicine. There were no medicines and we bought the medicines elsewhere (before) the WHO doctors came and started giving us the medicines," Biyombe said. She did not describe the drugs given to her child.Experts say access to the sick has been hindered by the remote locations of the affected villages and that several people died before medical teams were able to reach them.

Brazil faces threat of historic dengue outbreak in 2025 -As part of a broad attack on public health in Brazil, all the criminal negligence the country has seen in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has served as a model for confronting a series of endemic tropical diseases that pose a devastating impact, especially on the country’s poorest population. This is certainly the case with dengue, a neglected disease that was once popularly known in Brazil as “bone-breaking fever,” due to its severe symptoms that can last for weeks and which causes thousands of deaths every year. It can also leave the infected person with numerous sequelae. In 2024, Brazil had the worst year for dengue in history, with more than 6.6 million cases, 6,216 confirmed deaths and another 489 deaths still under investigation. By the end of February, Brazil had 440,000 cases of dengue fever on record, with 177 confirmed deaths and another 413 under investigation. Just like last year, the government of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers Party - PT) is doing everything it can to minimize the situation of dengue in Brazil. On February 27, the Ministry of Health’s website celebrated a more than 60 percent decrease in probable cases of dengue compared to the same period in 2024. However, numerous health organizations and experts have insisted that the epidemiological situation of dengue in 2025 could be worse than last year. On February 7, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued an epidemiological alert after 23 countries and territories in the region of the Americas registered 238,659 suspected cases in the first four epidemiological weeks of 2025, with Brazil accounting for 87 percent of these cases. These figures are 249 percent higher than in the same period last year. PAHO also warned of the greater risk of dengue outbreaks in the Americas due to the increased circulation of serotype 3, or DENV-3, one of the four serotypes of the virus. It has already been identified in several countries in the region, including Peru, Colombia, and Mexico. In Brazil, DENV-3 was detected for the first time in over 15 years last year. In an interview with Estado de S. Paulo at the beginning of February, infectious diseases doctor Alexandre Naime Barbosa warned that this fact means that we have “a large number of people susceptible” to dengue.

Quick takes: Polio in 4 countries, HHS review of Moderna pandemic vaccine contract, Bangladesh Zika cluster | CIDRAP

• Four countries reported new polio cases last week, including Pakistan, which reported another wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case, a patient from Sindh province who’s paralysis symptoms began on February 6, according to the latest weekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. The country, one of two where WPV1 is still endemic, has now recorded three cases for 2025. Elsewhere, Chad (6), Ethiopia (5), and Yemen (2) reported more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases, all of which had onsets in 2024 and are included in case totals for the previous year. In other developments, three European countries reported more environmental detections of cVDPV2, most involving samples collected this year.
• The Department of Health and Human Services is evaluating a $590 million contract to Moderna to develop and test mRNA vaccines against pandemic flu threats, including H5N1, Stat reported today, based on a confirmation from the HHS’ communication director. The development was first reported byBloomberg News. The contract from the HHS Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) was made in January on one of the final days of the Biden administration.
• Investigators in Bangladesh have detected the country’s first Zika virus cluster, which occurred in Dhaka, the country’s capital, according to study findings reported yesterday by the country’s International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICCDR,B). The study was based on screening in 2023 on 154 patients from Dhaka who had fever or other Zika virus symptoms. The virus was present in five samples, which the team said should prompt wider screening to gauge the true burden of Zika virus in the country. All five patients lived within 1 km of each other and had not traveled outside the country. One was co-infected with dengue virus. Genetic sequencing determined the viruses belonged to the Asian clade, which has been linked to microcephaly and other neurological complications.

Five countries report new polio cases -Five countries reported polio cases this week, including Pakistan, which reported three cases of wild poliovirus type (WPV1), according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).The three WPV1 cases, with onset of paralysis in January and February, were in Sindh and Punjab provinces. The cases bring the country's total WPV1 cases in 2025 to six. Pakistan is one of two countries (along with Afghanistan) where wild poliovirus is still endemic.The other polio cases reported this week involved circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2). Among the affected countries is Nigeria, which reported 7 cVDPV2 cases (4 from 2024 and 3 from 2025) in Kano, Borno, and Jigawa provinces, bringing its 2024 total to 98 cases and its 2025 total to 3 cases. GPEI said it recently sent a high-level delegation to Nigeria to discuss the country's efforts to stop cVDPV2 transmission.Chad reported 4 cVDPV2 cases, 2 having onset of paralysis in November and 2 in January, bringing its total number for 2024 to 37 cases and for 2025 to 2. Cameroon reported a cVDPV2 case with paralysis onset in December, bringing its total for 2024 to 3 cases. Djibouti reported its first cVDPV2 case of 2025 after confirming none in 2024.

H5N1 Update: February 28 - Your Local Epidemiologist | Katelyn Jetelina - The animal outbreak marches on, and you may notice it on your grocery bill. Risk to the general public remains low, but there are a few things you can do. Because of the administration change, there are some shifts in the response. But overall, bird flu isn’t something that should be taking up too much head space right now given (*waves hands around*) everything else. H5N1 hasn’t stopped spreading. It’s in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and dairy cows, with quite a few human cases. Here is the latest animal tally of infections:

• 12,064 wild birds
• 973 dairy herds
• 166,012,718 poultry—a big reason why eggs are hard to find and expensive

Spread among animals, particularly those in close physical proximity to humans, means we continue to see “spillover” infections to humans. In other words, the virus keeps jumping from animal to human, which is bad because every time it jumps, the virus can mutate. The U.S. human infection tally is:

• 70 confirmed human infections (+ 7 probable)
• Among those, 3 hospitalized
• 1 person in Louisiana died

People are still mainly getting sick from direct exposure to sick dairy cows (41 people) or sick poultry (24 people). Thankfully, we have not seen human-to-human transmission, and the virus hasn’t mutated to do so yet.Testing is still limited, and we now know we’re missing cases, especially the milder ones that don’t make people seek care. CDC went to a veterinarian conference and asked bovine (dairy) vets to donate blood to see if they had H5N1 antibodies (and didn’t test positive for H5N1 infection). 3 out of 150 had antibodies; in other words they were infected without knowing it. USDA hopes H5N1 (bird flu) will burn off among dairy cows. This is a possibility: the virus could stop finding more animals to infect, eventually hitting dead ends, leading to the disappearance in dairy cows.However, the probability of this is getting low for two reasons:

1. Reinfection. Preliminary evidence shows that cows can get reinfected, and if that’s the case, this can keep going in circles around cows.
2. Multiple entry points. All this started with one wild bird infecting one dairy cow, the virus slightly changing, and then spreading like wildfire. However, evidence shows it wasn’t just a one-off event in Texas. We now have two other documented cases of wild-infected dairy cows in Nevada and Arizona.

This will probably not die off in birds. H5N1 was established in wild birds 25 years ago. Any year, there is a ~2% risk of a pandemic because viruses jump from animals to humans all the time. Given the H5N1 developments, the risk has increased a bit. (I wager it’s around 8%.) We could stay at this level forever, it could burn off, or the situation could continue to evolve. Flu rapidly mutates, so there is no way to know. Currently, CDC rates the risk of this ever becoming a pandemic as “medium.”I mapped the scenarios below for you. The orange and red scenarios below are when my sensors will be going off (and would have the most implications for you).

Avian flu was in Oregon wastewater weeks before state's first bird outbreaks, study shows -- A retrospective analysis reveals that H5 avian flu surfaced in Oregon wastewater weeks before the state's first outbreak in poultry and wild birds and 2 years before the first outbreak in US cattle. A team led by Oregon State University researchers evaluated 551 influenza A virus–positive wastewater samples from 20 sites from September 2021 to July 2024.In January 2022, H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus was first identified in wild birds in the United States. In Oregon, the clade was first detected in wild birds and poultry in May 2022."Interpretation of avian influenza A(H5) subtype detections in wastewater requires an understanding of human and animal contributors to the sewershed because current testing does not distinguish between human and animal sources," the authors wrote. "Potential animal contributors include wild birds, farms with poultry or dairy cattle outbreaks, and dairy processing facilities."The results were published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.Of the 551 influenza A–positive samples, 21 (3.8%) tested positive for H5 in 12 communities 6 weeks before Oregon's first outbreak in domestic poultry, 7 weeks before the first detection in wild birds, and 2 years before the first outbreak in US dairy cattle (the virus hasn't been found in cattle or milk in Oregon)."No association was found between detection of avian influenza A(H5) in a community’s wastewater and history of an HPAI A(H5) outbreak among poultry in the county or presence of dairy processing facilities or dairy farms within the sewershed," the researchers wrote. Avian flu was found most often in two communities with important wild bird habitats, which the authors said implicates wild birds as a significant contributor to wastewater H5 contamination."Oregon is located along the Pacific Flyway, a major north-south route for migratory birds in the Americas that extends from Alaska to Patagonia," the authors wrote. "Wastewater surveillance, with consideration of all animal contributors and in conjunction with other surveillance metrics, has the potential to strengthen ongoing avian influenza surveillance efforts."

Cow-derived avian flu can infect pigs but doesn't spread among them, preprint suggests - Pigs are moderately susceptible to infection with a bovine-derived H5N1 avian influenza virus but don't spread it to other pigs, a non–peer-reviewed study published on the preprint server bioRxiv suggests. The investigators inoculated nine 4-week-old Yorkshire piglets through the trachea, nose, and mouth with the H5N1 B3.13 virus grown on bovine uterine surface cells. Three other uninfected piglets housed in the same pen served as sentinels. The researchers collected nasal swabs daily until the end of the study, oropharyngeal swabs on days 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 14, and serum for antibody evaluation. After euthanizing the infected piglets on different days, they sampled tissues and fluid in the lungs for virologic and pathologic analysis. "Pigs are an important reservoir in influenza ecology because they serve as a mixing vessel in which novel reassortant viruses with pandemic potential can be generated," the Kansas State University-led research team wrote. They noted influenza viruses' ability to cross species barriers: "Since HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4b became dominant in wild bird populations, spillovers to mammalian hosts have been frequently reported worldwide, indicating that viruses possessing the 2.3.4.4b HA [hemagglutinin] may have improved ability to replicate in mammals compared to other HPAI lineages." Little evidence for extensive additional mammalian adaptation All piglets appeared healthy and remained active throughout the study. Infectious H5N1 virus was isolated from the nasal swabs of one infected pig on day 2 post-inoculation and another pig on days 4 and 5. The oropharyngeal swabs of three pigs were positive for H5N1 on days 1 and 3, but viral concentrations were very low. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) revealed that the nasal or oropharyngeal swabs of seven piglets were positive for viral RNA at least once from days 1 to 5, which the authors said suggests low, intermittent viral shedding. The pulmonary fluid of two pigs showed low levels of infectious virus on day 3, and another two had live virus on day 5. On days 3 and 5, lung fluid samples from the pigs who tested negative were positive for H5N1 and suspected-positive on PCR. Taken together these observations suggest that, although some potentially mammalian-adapting mutations arose in some animals, there is little evidence for extensive additional mammalian adaptation of the bovine-derived 349 HPAI H5N1 B3.13 virus in pigs. Low concentrations of infectious virus were also isolated from the lungs of four infected pigs on days 3 and 5. One throat sample tested positive for viral RNA in multiple respiratory samples and lymph nodes on days 3 and 5, and one central nervous system sample was positive on day 5. At 14 days, no infectious virus was isolated from the infected pigs. All swabs and fluid and tissue samples from sentinel pigs were negative for virus, but nasal and oral swabs of one sentinel were suspected positive on PCR. Viral genome sequencing revealed several mutations, including one in H5N1 hemagglutinin previously tied to a likely increased ability to infect mammals in one pig, but the mutation didn't reach consensus levels. "Taken together these observations suggest that, although some potentially mammalian-adapting mutations arose in some animals, there is little evidence for extensive additional mammalian adaptation of the bovine-derived 349 HPAI H5N1 B3.13 virus in pigs," the researchers wrote. Sentinel pigs never infected Macroscopic pulmonary lesions in the infected pigs had sporadic dark red and depressed lobules representing regions of lobular collapse typical of influenza virus A infections on day 3 and, less often, at 5 days. Microscopic pulmonary lesions were characterized by mild to moderate multifocal non–pus-forming interstitial pneumonia with rare necrotizing bronchitis and/or bronchiolitis affecting multiple lung segments. Viral antigen was most abundant on day 3 and was present in all remaining infected animals by day 5. By day 7, no neutralizing antibodies could be detected in three infected pigs. Two infected pigs were seropositive by 10 days. At the end of the study, neutralizing antibodies were undetectable in one pig's serum, but the other two remaining infected pigs had neutralizing antibodies against H5N1. No sentinel piglet had detectable antibodies. "Here, we show that oro-respiratory infection of pigs resulted in productive replication of a bovine-derived HPAI H5N1 B3.13 virus," the study authors wrote. "Infectious viruses were mainly identified in the lower respiratory tract of principal infected pigs, and sero-conversion was observed in most of the principal pigs at later time points." The sentinel pigs' seronegativity throughout the study indicates a lack of viral transmission, the researchers said. "The results support that pigs are susceptible to a bovine-derived HPAI H5N1 B3.13 virus, but this virus did not replicate as robustly in pigs as mink-derived HPAI H5N1 and swine-adapted influenza viruses," they wrote. "Given the important role of pigs in IAV [influenza virus] ecology as a mixing vessel for generating the novel reassortant viruses with pandemic potential, enhanced surveillance of pigs is warranted," they concluded.

E. coli strain in Egyptian dairy products found in Japanese school outbreak - No one should have to fear food poisoning every time they eat or drink, but the reality, even in the 21st century, is that risks remain. An Osaka Metropolitan University-led Egypt-Japan research team found E. coli prevalent in over 25% of popular milk and dairy products in Egypt.The findings were published in the International Dairy Journal.Of the 210 samples of raw milk, cheese, and yogurt, 26.2% were positive for E. coli, with the highest being raw buffalo milk at 68%, and the lowest at 7.5% for rayeb, a type of fermented milk. The preference for raw milk instead of pasteurized milk and varying hygienic conditions at small dairies and markets could explain these results. Yet food poisoning affects every country, even ones viewed as being extremely hygienic, like Japan.The researchers found that one of the E. coli strains they isolated from the samples collected in 2018 in Egypt had the same characteristics as the E. coli that caused food poisoning in Japan's central Toyama Prefecture in 2021. During that case, contaminatedmilk affected more than 1,800 children across 25 schools."The E. coli discovered in this study has attracted attention as a new pathogenic E. coli that does not fall into any existing category,"

Quick takes: US food safety cuts, UK tracks Lassa contacts, malaria vaccine in Uganda | CIDRAP

• The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has eliminated two of its food safety advisory committees that have been in place for decades, Food Safety News reported today. The USDA notified members of the two groups—the National Advisory Committee on Microbiological Criteria for Foods and the National Advisory Committee on Meat and Poultry Inspection—on March 6. Brian Ronholm, director of food policy at Consumer Reports, said the expert panels have regularly provided expertise to federal health agencies and that the failure to recognize and leverage their scientific advice is "dangerous and irresponsible."
• The UK Health Security Agency (HSA) today said health officials are tracing contacts of a person from Nigeria who visited England while sick with Lassa fever at the end of February. Officials said the person was diagnosed as having the illness when he or she returned to Nigeria. The HSA said Lassa fever doesn't spread easily among people and that the risk to the public is very low. The disease is endemic in some West African countries. Lassa virus can spread to people who are exposed to food or household items contaminated by urine or feces from infected rats. The United Kingdom reported its last imported Lassa fever case in 2022.
• Uganda today received 2.278 million doses of malaria vaccine, which it will use to immunize people in 105 of the country's districts that are in the high- and moderate-risk categories, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the health ministry said in a joint statement today. The vaccine will be incorporated into Uganda's routine vaccine schedule starting in April, targeting kids younger than 2 years old, and will eventually be rolled out the whole country. The vaccine delivery was made by Gavi with co-financing from Uganda's government. Seventeen African countries have introduced the vaccine. Six to eight more are expected to introduce malaria vaccination later this year.

US ends funding for thousands of global health programs --The U.S. government has ended funding for some 5,800 global health programs, cutting off critical support for projects that provide vaccines, life-saving medications and emergency health care to millions of people globally.The move came in a wave of emails from the U.S. State Department that began Feb. 26.The emails informed thousands of health groups, refugee camps, tuberculosis clinics and polio vaccination projects that their funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) had been terminated, according to a report from The New York Times."This award is being terminated for convenience and the interest of the U.S. government," the notice read. The cuts affect a wide range of programs—from HIV treatment and malaria prevention in Africa to maternal health care in Nepal. "People will die, but we will never know, because even the programs to count the dead are cut," said Dr. Catherine Kyobutungi, executive director of the African Population and Health Research Center.The New York Times confirmed that major projects that are now canceled due to the funding cut include:

• $131 million grant to UNICEF's polio immunization program, which funded planning, logistics and vaccine delivery for millions of children.
• $90 million malaria prevention contract that provided bed nets, malaria tests and treatments for 53 million people.
• A project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which ran the only water source for 250,000 displaced people living in conflict zones.
• All operating costs for the Global Drug Facility, along with 10% of the drug budget for the world's largest tuberculosis medication supply program, serving nearly 3 million people, including 300,000 kids last year.
• HIV care and treatment projects in Lesotho, Tanzania and Eswatini run by the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation, which serves 350,000 people, including 10,000 children and 10,000 pregnant women receiving care to prevent HIV transmission to newborns.
• A project in Uganda to identify contacts of people with Ebola, conduct surveillance and bury those who died from the virus.
• A $34 million medical supply management contract in Kenya.
• Eighty-seven shelters in South Africa, supporting 33,000 women who survived rape and domestic violence.
• Community health program in Yemen that identified malnourished children.
• Pre- and postnatal health services in Nepal that provided care for 3.9 million children and 5.7 million women.
• A program in six West African nations run by Helen Keller International that provided medicine to more than 35 million people to prevent and treat neglected topical diseases.
• Severe acute malnutrition treatment project in Nigeria, serving 5.6 million children and 1.7 million women. As a result, 77 health facilities have stopped treating kids who are severely malnourished, putting 60,000 under 5 at immediate risk of death.
• Health clinics in Sudan, cutting off all health services in one of the largest areas in the Kordofan region.
• Malnutrition and maternal health project in Bangladesh serving 144,000 people, providing food for malnourished pregnant women and vitamin A for kids.
• REACH Malaria program that provided malaria drugs to children, protecting more than 20 million people in 10 African countries.
• A Plan International program that provided medical supplies, nutrition support andclean water for 115,000 people displaced or affected by Ethiopian conflict.
• More than $80 million in funding for UNAIDS, supporting global HIV treatment programs, including data collection.
• A program of the President's Malaria Initiative that provided mosquito control in 21 countries.
• HIV and tuberculosis care program in Uganda, run by Baylor College of Medicine Children's Foundation, treating 46,000 people.
• Smart4TB research consortium, the leading global research group developing tuberculosis prevention, diagnostics and treatment strategies.
• Demographic and Health Surveys project, the main data collection program in 90 countries, providing vital data on maternal and child health, nutrition and more.

KFF poll reveals support for USAID, misconceptions on aid for global health -- A new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) shows two thirds of Americans believe axing the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will lead to more illness and death globally, almost half (47%) believe that dissolving it will reduce the deficit and help fund domestic programs, and respondents vastly overestimate how much the country spends on foreign aid.The survey was conducted from February 18 to 25 among a nationally representative sample of 1,322 adults. It comes as the Supreme Court demanded that the Trump administration end its 90-day freeze on foreign aid.On average, respondents guessed that foreign aid accounts for 26% of the federal budget, KFF said in a press release on the poll. Fifty-eight percent of those polled said the United States spends too much on foreign aid, but that percentage dropped to 34% when they were informed foreign aid accounts for just 1% of the federal budget."After hearing that only about 1% percent of the federal budget is spent on foreign aid, the share saying the U.S. spends too much drops to 50% among Republicans, 39% among independents, and 15% among Democrats," KFF said.Respondents were more in favor of foreign aid when it was called global health spending, and 67% of those polled said cutting USAID will increase illness and death in low-income countries, while 62% believe shuttering the agency will result in more humanitarian crises around the world.In related news, the Supreme Court today said the Trump administration must release its 90-day freeze on foreign aid funding, while directing the lower court to clarify the government's duties. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined the three liberal justices in the 5-4 vote.At the heart of the case is billions in foreign aid from the State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). USAID was one of the first targets of Elon Musk’s DOGE, the department of government efficiency, and has been effectively defunded since mid-February.In lawsuits against the federal government, groups said the funding freeze was unconstitutional because Congress had already approved the more than $2 billion in aid spending before Trump took office. The Global Health Council which was one of several organizations to sue the government, wrote of the freeze last week, "These grants provided essential support to some of the world’s most vulnerable communities. Cutting 92% of USAID’s awards and thousands more from the State Department is not just an abdication of responsibility—it is a deliberate, calculated act that will cause irreparable harm."

How air pollution and wildfire smoke may contribute to memory loss in Alzheimer's disease - Air pollution contributes to nearly 7 million premature deaths each year, and its effects go far beyond the lungs. Breathing in wildfire smoke or automobile-related city smog doesn't just increase the risk of asthma and heart disease—it may also contribute to brain diseases as diverse as Alzheimer's and autism. Scientists at Scripps Research have discovered how a chemical change in the brain—which can be triggered by inflammation and aging as well as toxins found in air pollution, pesticides, wildfire smoke and processed meats—disrupts normal brain cell function. Known as S-nitrosylation, this chemical change prevents brain cells from making new connections and ultimately results in cellular death, the team discovered. The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on February 27, 2025, showed that blocking S-nitrosylation in a key brain protein partially reversed signs of memory loss in Alzheimer's mouse models and in nerve cells produced from human stem cells. "We've revealed the molecular details of how pollutants can contribute to memory loss and neurodegenerative disease," says senior author and professor Stuart Lipton, MD, Ph.D., the Step Family Foundation Endowed Chair at Scripps Research. "This could ultimately lead to new drugs that block these effects to better treat Alzheimer's disease." More than two decades ago, Lipton first discovered S-nitrosylation, a chemical process whereby a molecule related to nitric oxide (NO) binds to sulfur (S) atoms within proteins (producing "SNO"), altering their function and forming what Lipton has called a "SNO-STORM" in the brain. NO is found naturally within the body and produced in response to electrical stimulation or inflammation—but it also forms in excess in response to small particulate material and nitrate-related compounds (designated PM2.5/NOx) present in or triggered by climate change and automobile-related air pollution, wildfire smoke, pesticides, and processed meats. Lipton's research group and colleagues have previously demonstrated that aberrant S-nitrosylation reactions contribute to some forms of cancer, autism, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and other conditions. In the new study, Lipton's group investigated the effect of S-nitrosylation on the protein CRTC1, which helps regulate genes that are critical for forming and maintaining connections between brain cells, an essential process for learning and long-term memory. Using cultured brain cells from mice and humans, the researchers first confirmed that excess NO leads to S-nitrosylation of CRTC1. They then discovered that this chemical modification prevented CRTC1 from binding to another critical brain regulatory protein, CREB. As a result, other genes necessary for forming connections between neurons failed to be stimulated. "This is a pathway that affects your memory and is directly implicated in human Alzheimer's disease," Next, the research team genetically engineered a version of CRTC1 that could no longer undergo S-nitrosylation, as the protein now lacked the sulfur-containing amino acid (called cysteine) required for the chemical reaction. In a petri dish, introducing this modified version of CRTC1 into human nerve cells derived from Alzheimer's patient stem cells prevented signs of disease, including withering of nerve cell connections and decreased nerve cell survival. In Alzheimer's mouse models, the re-engineered CRTC1 restored the activation of genes required for memory formation and synaptic plasticity—the brain's ability to strengthen connections between neurons. "We could nearly completely rescue molecular pathways involved in making new memories," Given that environmental toxins, including automobile pollution and wildfire smoke, can result in elevated NO levels in the brain, the new study strengthens the hypothesis that these toxins can accelerate brain aging and Alzheimer's through S-nitrosylation. Preventing S-nitrosylation of CRTC1 could be a viable pathway toward slowing or preventing this type of Alzheimer's-related brain damage, says Lipton. The findings may also help explain why Alzheimer's risk increases with age, he adds. Even without exposure to environmental toxins, aging leads to increased inflammation and higher NO levels, while the body's antioxidant defenses weaken—making proteins more susceptible to harmful S-nitrosylation reactions.

Environmental scientists highlight role of paint in microplastic pollution -- Plastic waste is recognized as a major cause of environmental harm, with products like water bottles, plastic bags and clothing fibers acknowledged as major contributors to plastic pollution—but research by University of Toronto environmental scientists shows another source deserves more attention: paint.In a study published in the journal Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry, researchers in the Faculty of Arts & Science's department of ecology and evolutionary biology show how paint has been severely understudied when it comes to research on microplastics.Defined as plastic particles less than five millimeters in size, microplastics are known to accumulate in air, water, food and even our bodies over time—and have been shown to have toxic effects on both marine life and human health.The researchers say paint has been severely underestimated as a microplasticpollutant because it can be difficult to identify."Often, paint will show up as 'anthropogenic unknowns' when characterizing microplastics," says Zoie Diana, post-doctoral researcher who co-authored the study with Assistant Professor Chelsea Rochman and master's student Yuying Chen. "Researchers have been wondering what such particles are and hypothesizing, based on computer modeling, that paint might be responsible for a large portion of them." To investigate this further, the researchers surveyed existing literature to determine where paint pollution comes from. They found there were around 800 studies published on microplastics in 2019, but only 53 focused on paint, making for a significant research gap.Although paint has traditionally been considered a form of plastic, on average, 37% of it is composed of synthetic resins that bind pigments together.To help fill the gap in the research, Diana is creating a spectral library—a technique to identify the molecular structure of unknown fragments. Diana says it's vital to devise and deploy more measures to reduce paint pollution, given the ubiquitous nature of paint."There's paint from boats. There's also paint on buildings, on our roads. Once you walk around the city, you start to see it everywhere you look," she says.

US butterfly population plunges by 22 percent in 20 years: Study - Butterflies are disappearing from the United States at an alarming rate, with their total population declining by more than a fifth over two decades, a new study has found. Total butterfly abundance — the total individuals of a species within a given area — plummeted by 22 percent between 2000 and 2020, according to the study, published Thursday in Science.During that period, about 33 percent of butterfly species underwent significant shrinkage, while many experienced extreme declines in abundance, the research showed. “For those who were not already aware of insect declines, this should be a wake-up call,” said lead author Collin Edwards, of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, in a statement. To draw their conclusions, Edwards and his colleagues from around the country combed through data from 76,000 surveys — a lofty task, as most butterfly monitoring efforts are either volunteer-based or conducted by experts on a limited geographic or species level. The researchers worked with colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, who aggregated the data from 35 monitoring programs and with records of more than 12.6 million individual butterflies. Of the 554 species included, the scientists said they had sufficient data to examine how butterfly abundances changed regionally and individually for 342 species. Ultimately, their results revealed that 13 times more species declined than increased, with 107 species losing at least half of their populations.

Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes --Researchers at Rice University have uncovered a critical link between rising temperatures and declines in a species' population, shedding new light on how global warming threatens natural ecosystems. The study, published in Ecologyand led by Volker Rudolf, revealed that rising temperatures exacerbate competition within populations, ultimately leading to population crashes at higher temperatures. It offers one of the first clear experimental confirmations that rising temperatures alter the forces that control population dynamics in nature."Our research provides an essential missing piece in understanding the broader effects of warming on natural populations," said Rudolf, professor of biosciences. "Even when individual organisms seem to thrive at higher temperatures, the population as a whole may still suffer as competition for resources intensifies."To reveal how temperature influences competition and population growth, the team focused on Daphnia pulex, a small zooplankton species that plays a vital role in freshwater food webs and water quality. By manipulating temperature and population density in a controlled laboratory setting, the researchers isolated the effects of rising temperatures onpopulation dynamics. The results were both fascinating and troubling.The experiment revealed that competition among the individuals became significantly stronger as temperatures rose. In fact, for every 7 degrees Celsius increase in temperature, competition effects doubled, causing a dramatic 50% population decline at the highest tested temperature.While moderate warming (12–19 C) initially boosted population growth by accelerating metabolism and reproduction, at higher temperatures these benefits vanished as the increase in competition took its toll, leading to sharp population declines even as individual organisms tolerated the higher temperatures."We know warming temperatures increase metabolism and reproduction in ectotherms, but we found that warmer temperatures also create competition that limits survival and reproduction," said Lillie Stockseth, alumna and first author of the study. Stockseth carried out the experiment as part of her undergraduate senior thesis in Rudolf's lab and is now working for the Houston Zoo. "As temperatures rose toward the physiological limit for these populations, increased competition began to outweigh those metabolic benefits and led to population declines. This is an important warning for ecosystems facing rising temperatures—populations could approach decline at less severe temperatures than we've thought," Stockseth said.

Protections drop for wolves in most of Europe - Wolves became less protected in most of Europe on Friday as new conservation regulations came into force, except in three countries that objected to the move including the United Kingdom, the Council of Europe said. The move allows hunting to resume under strict regulation, which activists fear could result in a large number of wolves being shot dead. Activists have said the measure will upset the recovery made by the species over the past 10 years after near extinction a century ago, but farmers say their growing numbers are a threat to their livestock. Members of the Bern Convention, tasked with the protection of wildlife in Europe and some African countries, in December agreed to lower the wolf's protection status from "strictly protected" to "protected." The decision "was set to enter into force three months later, unless objected to by at least one-third of the parties to the convention," the Strasbourg-based Council of Europe said. Of the 50 parties to the convention—an international treaty of the Council of Europe—at least 17 would have needed to protest. Instead, "three parties formally lodged objections: the Czech Republic, Monaco, and the United Kingdom. As a result, the decision to modify the protection status of the wolf does not apply to these three parties," it said. The new "protected" status "mandates regulation of the species' exploitation to prevent endangerment, implementing measures such as closed seasons and regulating the sale, keeping, transport, and offering for sale of live and dead animal," the Council of Europe said.

More endangered Mexican gray wolves are roaming the southwestern US, annual survey shows -It is a ritual that takes place every winter—federal and state wildlife managers use remote cameras, scat collection, radio telemetry devices and helicopters to count Mexican gray wolves that are roaming mountain ranges in parts of New Mexico and Arizona.The predators that are captured during the annual survey are weighed and vaccinated, their blood is drawn and their radio collars are checked. It is all part of a decades-long effort to gauge the success of the work being done to return the endangered species to its historic range in the southwestern U.S. and in Mexico.This year's count shows the recovery of Mexican wolves is inching forward.The smallest subspecies of gray wolf in North America, Mexican wolves were listed as endangered in 1976, and a binational captive breeding program was started to guard against extinction. The reintroduction program has been the source of many legal battles over the years—with environmentalists seeking to get more captive wolves released into the wild and ranchers fighting to protect their way of life.Here is a look at Mexican gray wolves by the numbers:

Multi-vehicle crash amid blowing dust leaves 4 dead near Phoenix, Arizona - (video) A multi-vehicle crash occurred on Interstate 10 near Tonopah, Arizona, about 80 km (50 miles) west of Phoenix, at approximately 13:00 MST on Saturday, March 1, resulting in four deaths and two people in critical condition. The crash involved 12 vehicles: six commercial motor vehicles (tractor-trailers), four passenger vehicles, a van, and a recreational vehicle towing a trailer. As of 10:30 MST on March 2, the Arizona Department of Public Safety (AZDPS) reported that five of the injured had been treated and released from hospitals, while one person remained hospitalized for ongoing care and precautionary observation. The collision took place during dust storm advisories issued by the National Weather Service in Phoenix, with wind gusts up to 65 km/h (40 mph) contributing to reduced visibility. Authorities are investigating the cause, including the potential role of blowing dust and low visibility, with some vehicles catching fire in the aftermath. Eastbound I-10 was closed until 03:10 PST on March 2 due to the incident. Vehicles burnt to a crisp after a multi-vehicle crash on I-10 near Tonopah, Arizona. Image credit: AZDPS Investigators believe an initial collision was followed by one or more secondary collisions, leading to additional injuries and fatalities as the vehicles burst into flames. The I-10 eastbound lane was closed after the crash and reopened by 03:10 LT on March 3.

Crews battle growing wildfires in Myrtle Beach, SC area (video) The Carolina Forest wildfire approached homes on Wyandot Ct. in Walkers Woods on Sunday morning. Residents rushed to evacuate. Motorists had limited visibility as heavy, low-hanging smoke blanketed the area. Three Carolina Forest neighborhoods seem to be the target of wildfires that continue to burn Monday in the Myrtle Beach area. The east side of Carolina Forest Boulevard, which includes the neighborhoods of Avalon, Waterbridge and Walkers Woods, is where much of the fire is currently concentrated, according to Horry County spokesperson Thom Bell. Bell said that the area has thick brush and vegetation causing the fire to smolder once it has been extinguished. Updated mapping on Monday shows that the wildfires cover 2,059 acres, according to Russell Hubright with the Forestry Commission. Hubright said that there has been a small amount of growth in the fires, but the acreage change comes after a more accurate mapping of the area. 1 of 40 Photos: Firefighters and forestry service continue to battle large fire near Myrtle Beach, SC. The Carolina Forest fire had burned more than 1600 acres by day three on Monday and was 30 percent contained. Firefighters from around the region dug fire breaks around communities and responded to hot spots while aircraft dropped water on the flames. The wildfire is estimated to be 30% contained, according to The South Carolina Forestry Commission. “We’re hoping for more progress tomorrow,” Hubright said Monday night. Firefighters responded to flareups throughout the day Monday, and heavy, low-hanging smoke has blanketed the area as well as ash. An air quality alert was sent out for Horry County. Forestry crews are focusing their attention on the Covington Drive neighborhood, using bulldozers to dig perimeter lines around the wildfire, Hubright said. The biggest issue is that because of the soil type in the area – which includes layers of peat and vegetative material – tractors continue to sink, causing delays and issues, Hubright said. Officials are hopeful that changing weather conditions, including decreasing winds and possible rain this week, will help with the fires. “I wouldn’t say we’re in the clear yet,” Horry County spokesperson Mikayla Moskov said.

Carolina fires updates: Officials warn containment may take days as new wildfire erupts in North Carolina Forecasters warned Monday that elevated fire danger would continue in the Carolinas, as dry conditions persisted. “The combination of dry fuels, limited rainfall, and very low humidity will lead to an elevated risk of adverse fire behavior today,” officials at the U.S. Forest Service’s National Forests in North Carolina cautioned in a post on Facebook.The warning comes as the National Weather Service’s Wilmington office advised drivers to be careful on roads, with smoke-filled skies resulting in “slow and difficult travel in the Myrtle Beach area.”The smoke has also affected schools in the state, forcing some athletic practices indoors.Firefighters are continuing to battle blazes that began tearing through North and South Carolina over the weekend, including an enormous fire near Myrtle Beach that doubled in size over the weekend.More than 175 blazes were recorded in South Carolina over the weekend covering 17 square kilometers. One blaze near Carolina Forest, a community just west of the tourist spot in Horry County, stretched across 1,600 acres and was 30 percent contained as of Sunday evening, according to the South Carolina Forestry Commission. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency “to further support wildfire response efforts across the state” and ensure first responders “continue to have the resources they need.”

• Mapped: Wildfires rage across the Carolinas
• New fire reported in North Carolina's Wilkes County
• In pictures: Firefighters tackle blazes in the Carolinas
• Officials issue smoke advisory: 'This will limit some visibility for motorists and residents'

Julinna Oxley, a philosophy professor at Coastal Carolina University, recently told The New York Times that she, her two teenagers, and her two cats had evacuated from their home in Carolina Forest on Sunday night. “The air purifiers just could not keep up with the amount of smoke that was in the house,” she recalled. “You could literally see it.” “Our single-engine air tanker, it carries about 800 gallons of water that it can drop on an area that had that aircraft had to turn around yesterday because there was a drone in the air,” Philip Jackson with the N.C. Forest Service, told WNCT on Monday. “And so, when you lose that resource, that puts extra strain on personnel. It also allows that fire to spread and spread even more.” Forest Service officials said that incident was in District 4, including most of Eastern North Carolina.

Forced evacuations and burn ban as wildfires spread across North and South Carolina - A series of wildfires erupted across North and South Carolina over the weekend, fueled by dry vegetation, low humidity, and gusty winds. The fires prompted evacuations, road closures, and a statewide burning ban in South Carolina. As of early Sunday, firefighting crews are battling blazes that have collectively scorched thousands of acres, with some fires remaining at 0% containment. In Polk County, North Carolina, approximately 64 km (40 miles) south of Asheville, the Melrose Fire has burned between 162 and 243 ha (400 and 600 acres) since igniting on Saturday. The blaze, located between the towns of Tryon and Saluda, prompted mandatory evacuations along U.S. Highway 176 as flames encroached on residential areas. As of late Saturday night, the fire was uncontained, with wind gusts reaching up to 80 km/h (50 mph), driving its rapid spread. The fire started when a power line fell at 3910 US Hwy 176, quickly spreading up the mountain and threatening multiple structures. The Tryon and Saluda Fire Departments are responding to the blaze. “Residents should call 911 immediately if the fire approaches their homes overnight,” Saluda Fire and Rescue advised. No injuries or fatalities have been reported, though the full extent of property damage remains unclear. The North Carolina Forest Service noted that additional fires have flared up across the state, including in Buncombe County near Asheville, as the region enters its spring wildfire season under unusually dry conditions following a February with below-average rainfall. In South Carolina, Horry County Fire Rescue evacuated residents from several neighborhoods in the Carolina Forest, approximately 16 km (10 miles) west of Myrtle Beach, due to a wildfire. Officials did not provide information on the fire’s containment status or the area burned, but reports on social media suggest the fire has burned over 486 ha (1 200 acres) Two planes and a Black Hawk helicopter were scheduled to drop water on the fire on Sunday, March 2, according to South Carolina State Representative Tim McGinnis, citing an update from State Forester Scott Phillips. Tractors were also being deployed to create containment lines. Multiple fires ignited across South Carolina on Saturday, some causing significant damage. A small fire near Old Highway 90 and Edge Road was contained by 21:50 LT that night. A structure fire broke out on Tidewater Road on Friday, February 28, destroying two commercial vehicles. No damage was reported to nearby structures. The cause of the fire is under investigation. As of 06:12 LT on Sunday, evacuations were ongoing for Blackberry Lane from the intersections of Spring Lake Drive including Pennyroyal, Alyssum, and Bluebonnet, as well as Harvest Drive from Moonbeam to Tidelands in the Spring Lake community in Carolina Forest due to the ongoing wildfire and structures threatened. Officials evacuated the Reserve area of the Walkers Woods neighborhood and the Avalon neighborhood of Carolina Forest due to active wildfires, according to Horry County Fire Rescue (HCFR). County police and fire crews have issued another evacuation order for Covington Drive from Summerhill Drive to the community center in the Covington Lakes neighborhood of Carolina Forest. This order was issued around 04:45 LT due to the ongoing changes in the wind patterns impacting the wildfire. Overnight, Horry County officials issued new evacuations at 03:15 LT, including homes along Arrow Wood Court, Indianola Court, and Tuckahoe Road in the Walkers Woods neighborhood. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster announced a statewide burn ban on Saturday due to dangerous wildfire conditions. He warned that individuals who start fires will face legal consequences as fire crews work to contain multiple wildfires.

Japan hit by largest wildfire in over 30 years - (video) A massive forest fire has burned approximately 1 400 ha (3 460 acres) in Akasaki Town, Ofunato City, Iwate Prefecture, since it broke out on February 26, 2025. This is now the largest wildfire in modern Japan history, surpassing the previous record of 1 030 ha (2 545 acres) set in Kushiro, Hokkaido, in 1992. A forest fire in Akasaki Town, Ofunato City, Iwate Prefecture, has claimed at least one life, damaged more than 80 buildings and burned approximately 1 400 ha (3 460 acres) in just 4 days, surpassing the previous record of 1 030 ha (2 545 acres) set in Kushiro, Hokkaido, in 1992. This makes it the largest wildfire in Japan since the Heisei era (1989–2019), according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA). Evacuation orders remain in effect for 1 896 households, affecting 4 596 residents across 17 districts in Ofunato City, up from 1 340 households (3 306 residents) on February 26. Emergency shelters have been set up to accommodate displaced residents, with authorities distributing essential supplies, including water, food, blankets, and medical aid. Approximately 690 households in Sanriku Town and 30 in Akasaki Town remain without power, while water supply disruptions continue for over 800 households. Sanriku Railway Rias Line services between Sakari Station and Sanriku Station are suspended, with replacement bus services in operation. Road closures continue on the Ofunato-Ryori-Sanriku Line because of fire risks. More than 1 600 personnel from 12 prefectures are engaged in firefighting operations as authorities work to contain the flames and mitigate further destruction. As of March 1, 25 firefighting teams with 73 personnel remain active, supported by a disaster prevention helicopter conducting aerial reconnaissance and suppression efforts. The Emergency Firefighting Assistance Teams (EFAT) have mobilized 445 teams with 1 673 personnel across affected areas. Efforts to support displaced residents have included large-scale relief distributions. On February 26, authorities distributed 12 000 bottles of water, 755 cardboard beds, and 2 100 meal packs. Additional relief supplies, including 1 570 blankets and supplementary water, were provided on February 27, with further orders placed for winter clothing, food, and medical aid on February 28.

Multi-vehicle pileups shut down Interstates 35 and 80 in Iowa - A winter storm triggered multiple-vehicle crashes on major Iowa highways on March 5, 2025, resulting in the closure of sections of Interstates 35 and 80. YouTube video Whiteout conditions, combined with wind gusts exceeding 80 km/h (50 mph), created hazardous driving conditions, leading to multiple pileups across the state. One of the largest incidents occurred in the afternoon on I-35 near Ankeny, where a pileup blocked the northbound lanes. Earlier, a separate crash involving several trucks and cars took place on westbound I-80 near Newton, approximately 56 km (35 miles) east of Des Moines. The Iowa State Patrol issued an urgent travel warning. A separate pileup on southbound I-35 near Huxley, approximately 32 km (20 miles) north of Des Moines, occurred on the morning of March 5, involving at least 15 vehicles, according to Iowa State Patrol Trooper Rodney Larson. Although no fatalities were reported, nine people sustained injuries, and a state trooper’s vehicle was struck. Iowa State Patrol troopers responded to 68 crashes statewide between 21:00 LT on March 4 and noon on March 5, including several incidents of vehicles skidding off highways due to ice-covered roads. Video footage from the scenes on I-35 and I-80 captured vehicles struggling in whiteout conditions. One segment showed trucks jackknifed and stranded, blocking traffic, while another depicted cars attempting to navigate near-zero-visibility conditions. The storm’s intensity caused delays for emergency crews trying to reach crash sites. The incident has been compared to a deadly 2018 pileup in the same region that involved approximately 70 vehicles. Multiple roads, including sections of Interstate 80, Iowa 44, Iowa 141, and U.S. Highways 20, 6, and 59, remained closed as of noon on March 5.

6 fatalities and over 500 crashes reported as winter storm sweeps through the U.S. - YouTube videos - A powerful winter storm swept through much of the Midwest and southern United States starting Tuesday, March 4, 2025. The storm claimed 6 lives, spawned over 20 tornadoes, caused hundreds of crashes, and delivered over 46 cm (18 inches) of snow in some areas. Whiteout conditions in Iowa A powerful winter storm moved eastward through the Plains on March 4, 2025, triggering severe weather conditions across the Midwest and the South, resulting in at least six fatalities in Nebraska and Mississippi. The storm swept through the central and southern United States, as well as the Great Lakes region, from March 4 to 6, producing blizzards in the Midwest, along with tornadoes and dust storms in the South. These conditions led to hundreds of crashes and multiple injuries. next stay In Nebraska, two people died in a crash on Interstate 80 near mile marker 310, close to Grand Island, amid blizzard and whiteout conditions. The Nebraska State Patrol (NSP) reported that a Chevrolet Trailblazer traveling westbound lost control, crossed the median, and struck an eastbound semi-truck. Both occupants of the Chevrolet, Emelin Ortega Rodas, 25, and Daniel Ortega Marroquin, 62, both of Lexington, were pronounced deceased at the scene. The driver of the semi was transported to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries. The NSP reported responding to 400 weather-related incidents, including 31 crashes and 382 motorist assists, since Tuesday morning. In Iowa, the State Patrol reported receiving 575 calls for service and responded to 130 crashes and 445 motorist assists, along with 18 injuries. A crash on the I-35 in Iowa. Image: ISP YouTube video Another death was reported in Omaha on March 5, though it has not been confirmed as weather-related. Police also responded to five incidents involving individuals affected by the cold. Three people were transported to a local hospital in stable condition, officials said. At least 3 people were reported dead, and six were injured in Mississippi as storms swept through the state, causing significant damage to structures. In Kansas, wind speeds reached 150 km/h (93 mph) in Hugoton on March 4. Several reports of gusts exceeding 129 km/h (80 mph) were recorded across western Kansas earlier in the day. St. Joseph, Missouri, reported wind gusts over 80 km/h (50 mph) for nearly 10 consecutive hours.

Seven tornadoes strike Oklahoma and Louisiana - Seven tornadoes were reported in Oklahoma and Louisiana on Tuesday, March 4, 2025, as severe storms moved over the region. The twisters ripped roofs off homes, destroyed outbuildings, and damaged numerous trees. YouTube video Five tornadoes struck Oklahoma on March 4, causing widespread damage across parts of the state. Four tornadoes were reported in Okmulgee County, while one was recorded in McIntosh County. An EF-1 tornado struck near Henryetta at 06:06 local time (LT), lasting until 06:09 LT. It had peak winds of up to 160 km/h (100 mph) and a path length of 2.9 km (1.8 miles). The tornado formed west of S 210 Road and south of E 111 Road. It moved northeast, uprooting multiple trees, damaging homes, and destroying outbuildings as it crossed Lake Road. The tornado dissipated east of Lake Road and north of Country Club Road. Another EF-1 tornado struck Henryetta at 06:10 LT, lasting until 06:15 LT. It had a path length of approximately 5.3 km (3.3 miles) and peak winds of up to 153 km/h (95 mph). The tornado formed south of New Lake Road and east of S 230 Road, snapping trees in the area. Moving northeast, it crossed I-40 and Holly Road, damaging outbuildings, before reaching Arbeka Road, where large tree limbs were snapped. It dissipated north of Holly Road and east of Arbeka Road. The third EF-1 tornado struck near Morris at around 06:22 LT, lasting until 06:25 LT. It had peak winds of up to 153 km/h (95 mph) and a path length of 4.3 km (2.7 miles). The tornado formed west of N 270 Road and north of Gun Club Road, causing an RV to roll over. It caused significant tree damage while moving east-northeast across N 280 Road, damaging a roof and snapping multiple power poles. It then crossed Smith Road, knocking down power poles and damaging a home. Continuing northeast across Highway 52, it snapped large tree limbs and damaged another home’s roof before dissipating. Two EF-0 tornadoes were also reported in Oklahoma—one in Eram, Okmulgee County, and another in Checotah, McIntosh County. Both tornadoes caused some roof damage and snapped numerous tree limbs along their paths. Two EF-1 tornadoes were reported in Louisiana on Tuesday morning. The first EF-1 tornado struck western Caddo Parish at around 09:00 LT, lasting until 09:04 LT. It had peak winds of 150 km/h (93 mph) and a path length of 6.3 km (3.91 miles). The tornado began just east of the Texas-Louisiana state line in Caddo Parish and moved east along Blanchard Furrh Road, snapping numerous tree limbs along its path. The second EF-1 tornado touched down in the North Highlands neighborhood of North Shreveport at around 09:19 LT, lasting until 09:20 LT. It had peak winds of 150 km/h (93 mph) and a path length of 1.48 km (0.92 miles). It began along Booth Drive and moved east, snapping trees along its path.

Storms claim 3 lives and injure 6 in Mississippi - video – Severe storms moved through the southern United States on March 4, causing at least three fatalities in Mississippi, producing tornadoes in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, and resulting in widespread damage. The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)reported one fatality in Clarke County and two in Madison County. Six people sustained injuries, with two reported in Madison County and four in Wayne County. In Madison County, a 71-year-old man was electrocuted when a power line fell, igniting a small brush fire. Another man died after a tree fell on his vehicle while driving on the Natchez Trace near Highway 43 on the afternoon of March 4. A passenger in the vehicle was transported to a hospital. In Clarke County, a woman was killed when a falling tree limb struck her while she was in her yard. At least eight tornadoes were reported on March 4, with seven occurring in Oklahoma and Louisiana and one near Irving, Texas. The tornado near Irving, Texas, was rated EF-1, with peak winds of approximately 177 km/h (110 mph), causing significant damage. Reports indicate that the tornado partially destroyed a warehouse. Wind gusts reaching 153 km/h (95 mph) caused additional widespread damage in the county. YouTube video

24 missing, 16 rescued after avalanche buries BRO workers in Uttarakhand, India - At least 24 workers are missing, and 16 have been rescued after a massive avalanche buried a BRO project site near Mana village in the Chamoli district, Uttarakhand, on February 28, 2025. An avalanche buried a Border Roads Organisation (BRO) project site near Mana village in the Chamoli district, Uttarakhand, during the early morning hours of February 28, 2025. 16 workers were rescued, with four in critical condition, and 24 are still missing. The avalanche buried several containers where workers were sleeping, according to Uttarakhand Disaster Response Officer Nandkishore Joshi. The victims include construction workers, JCB operators, and other machine operators employed at the BRO construction site, which has been active for the past two years. Four of the rescued workers are in critical condition. Rescuers have located five containers, and search operations are still underway for the remaining three containers. The exact status of the remaining trapped individuals remains unknown, and rescuers are racing against time to locate them. The extreme cold and continuous precipitation pose additional risks to those still trapped. Rescue operations, led by the Indian Army and Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), are ongoing despite severe weather conditions. Heavy snowfall has hampered efforts, with helicopters unable to operate and ground teams struggling through treacherous terrain. Army Brigade Commander Mandeep Dhillon confirmed that a dedicated rescue team, comprising seven officers, 17 Junior Commissioned Officers (JCOs), and 150 personnel from the IBEX Brigade, was deployed at 08:00 LT (02:30 UTC). The team is equipped with specialized medical personnel and engineering equipment to aid the recovery of those trapped. The 23rd Battalion of the ITBP, consisting of 90 personnel stationed in Mana, has been mobilized for assistance. Efforts have been repeatedly halted because of continuous snowfall, making the terrain treacherous for rescuers. Helicopter assistance has been ruled out because of poor visibility and heavy snow accumulation. The injured workers have been admitted to an Army hospital in Mana, where medical teams are treating injuries, including severe head trauma. The Uttarakhand government has issued two helpline numbers for families seeking updates on the trapped workers, as communication lines remain disrupted because of the extreme weather.

Rescue operation ends after avalanche kills 8 in Uttarakhand, India - A large avalanche buried 54 workers at a Border Roads Organisation construction site near Mana village in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli district on February 28, 2025, killing eight. Rescue teams worked for over 60 hours in heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures, saving 46 survivors from collapsed metal shelters at an altitude of 3 200 m (10 500 feet) near India’s border with China. A multi-agency rescue effort involving over 250 personnel from the Indian Army, Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), and State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) was launched at the site. Despite heavy snowfall and frigid temperatures, 50 workers were rescued over the next 60 hours, with 46 surviving.In the final phase of the search, teams deployed a drone-based intelligent buried object detection system airlifted from Delhi, along with avalanche rescue dogs. The last four missing bodies were recovered on March 2, bringing the death toll to eight.Rescued workers were transported to Joshimath Military Hospital for medical treatment.“I heard a loud thud and then the container in which I was sleeping tumbled probably half a kilometer downwards. I closed my eyes, thinking it was the end of my life, but a few minutes later, when the container got stuck beneath the mountain of snow, the other workers and I managed to open the door and crawl out of it.” Vijay Pal from Moradabad described his experience inside a tumbling container.“After I realised that the avalanche had settled, I tried to move my body and managed to run. Had the Army post not been there at Mana, none of us would have survived,” Vipin Kumar from Himachal Pradesh recalled. He suffered a back injury after being buried in the snow for 15 minutes.

Ten dead, hundreds evacuated in Argentina floods - At least ten people were killed and more than a thousand evacuated in the Argentine port city of Bahia Blanca on Friday as torrential rains flooded homes and hospitals, destroyed roads and forced officials to cut power. Eight hours of nonstop rain left the city of 350,000 people largely underwater, and forced authorities to evacuate the Jose Penna hospital. Television images showed medical personnel evacuating babies from the hospital's neonatal unit, and the army was deployed to assist in rescue efforts. Some 1,321 people were evacuated to safety in the city, which is about 600 kilometers (about 375 miles) south of the capital Buenos Aires, according to Mayor Federico Susbielles' office. The national government authorized emergency aid of 10 billion pesos (about 9.2 million dollars). The city received more than 400 millimeters (15 inches) of rain in just hours—equivalent to what it normally gets in a year, "something unprecedented," according to Javier Alonso, security minister for Buenos Aires province. "The biggest storm in Bahia Blanca was in 1930, with 175 millimeters. This is almost three times bigger," said Alonso. Bahia Blanca's airport was closed until further notice, and officials cut off part of the power supply to reduce the risk of electric shocks. The provincial government said it was sending helicopters, canoes, ambulances and trucks bearing food, water and equipment to the stricken city. The coast guard was assisting in the rescue with inflatable boats. "It was raining, and suddenly we saw the street was flooded. About a meter-and-a-half of water came into my house," Flavia Viera Romero, who rescued her children from the deluge, told the LN+ channel. The city remains on alert from the meteorological service for new storms. Flood waters reached the wards of the Jose Penna intensive care hospital, one of the main hospitals in Bahia Blanca, forcing the emergency evacuation of patients and staff. Images on television news and social media showed nurses and doctors with sick babies in their arms fleeing the hospital. "It was raining and suddenly we saw water in the street. A wall of water about a meter-and-a-half high entered my house," householder Flavia Viera Romero told the LN+ channel. "We are with my family, we took refuge in the truck," she said. The streets of Bahia Blanca slope towards the sea, and tidal waters increased the current of the flood, sweeping away vehicles and debris from wrecked homes.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred makes landfall over Moreton Bay Islands - Tropical Cyclone Alfred made landfall over the Moreton Bay Islands off the coast of Queensland, Australia at approximately 23:30 AEST (13:30 UTC) on Friday, March 7, 2025, as a Category 1 cyclone. The system is expected to move closer to the Queensland mainland for several hours before making landfall again on Saturday, March 8. As of 04:00 AEST on Saturday (17:00 UTC on Friday), Alfred’s center was located approximately 50 km (31 miles) north-northeast of Brisbane and 100 km (62 miles) north of the Gold Coast. Alfred remains a Category 1 cyclone, with sustained winds near the center reaching 75 km/h (47 mph), gusts up to 100 km/h (62 mph), and a minimum central pressure of 982 hPa. The system was moving northwest at 10 km/h (6 mph). next stay Alfred is forecast to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Brisbane on Saturday morning in the vicinity of Bribie Island. It is expected to weaken to below tropical cyclone strength as it moves inland late Saturday through Sunday, March 9.

Ex-cyclone batters Australia, causing huge blackouts - Ex-Cyclone Alfred stalled off the rain- and wind-lashed coast of eastern Australia on Saturday, threatening to unleash floods after blacking out more than 330,000 homes and businesses. The former tropical cyclone—now downgraded to a tropical depression—has battered the coastline with gale-force winds that toppled trees, brought down power lines, and damaged buildings. It was still creating heavy rainfall, swelling rivers in parts of a 400-kilometer (250-mile) stretch of the coast straddling southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales, government forecasters said. Utility companies said 295,000 properties in southeast Queensland and another 42,600 in New South Wales were without power, warning that floods could hamper repairs. "That's the largest ever loss of power from a natural disaster in Queensland's history," said the state's premier, David Crisafulli, estimating that about 750,000 people had been impacted since the blackouts began. Although the weather system "stalled and began weakening", the bureau of meteorology warned that intense rain and damaging wind gusts were a risk throughout the weekend. "Rivers are already starting to respond to the heavy rainfall, with many Minor to Major Flood Warnings current," the bureau said in a statement. A 61-year-old man's body was found Saturday after his four-wheel drive pick-up truck was swept off a bridge into a river in northern New South Wales. He had clambered out of the vehicle and tried in vain to cling to a tree branch in the river before disappearing into the rapid waters on Friday, police said. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned people not to underestimate the risks. "While it has been downgraded, very serious risks remain so it is important that people do not take this downgrading as a reason for complacency," Albanese told a news conference. "Its impact will be serious and will intensify over coming hours and indeed over coming days." Evacuation orders have been issued for 16,200 people in New South Wales, where 30 flood rescues have been carried out over the past 24 hours, emergency services said.

Cloud seeding prevents rainfall in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia - Data from monitoring stations indicate that no rainfall occurred in Greater Jakarta after the BNPB began cloud seeding operations on March 4, 2025. A BNPB-operated aircraft releases sodium chloride (NaCl) and calcium oxide (CaO) over West Java on March 5, 2025 The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) continues its weather modification operations to control rainfall and mitigate flooding in Greater Jakarta. The operation aims to reduce heavy rainfall by dispersing sodium chloride (NaCl) and calcium oxide (CaO) into the atmosphere using aircraft. BNPB has carried out a total of seven sorties over 16 hours and 43 minutes, dispersing 9 000 kg (19 842 lbs) of NaCl and 2 000 kg (4 409 lbs) of CaO. On March 5, six sorties were flown using a Cessna Caravan PK-SNP aircraft over West Java, including the northern waters of the provinces of Bekasi, Karawang, Pamanukan, Jatiluhur, and Bandung. next stay BNPB, in coordination with related ministries, will continue weather modification operations until March 8 because of forecasts predicting moderate to heavy rainfall in the region until March 11. The goal is to reduce rainfall in flood-prone areas and redirect precipitation toward safer zones, such as nearby seas.

Major sudden stratospheric warming forecast, final polar vortex collapse of the season signals mid-March freeze - The final polar vortex collapse of the 2024-25 winter season is forecast to occur in mid-March as a strong stratospheric warming event develops, potentially leading to significant weather disruptions across the Northern Hemisphere. This follows the previous collapse in mid-February, which brought record-breaking cold temperatures across the United States. This event is expected to be much stronger than the previous one and will mark the final collapse of the season. The next polar vortex in the stratosphere will not form until the 2025-26 winter season. The wind forecast indicates a reversal from the usual westerly to easterly flow, signaling a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. SSW leads to a temperature increase in the stratosphere, disrupting circulation patterns. SSW events are notorious for destabilizing the jet stream, the high-altitude wind band that steers weather systems. A weakened or meandering jet stream often opens the door for frigid Arctic air to plunge into mid-latitudes, while shoving milder air eastward. Current models suggest cold air is pooling over western Canada and the western United States, potentially priming the region for biting freezes, heavy snow, or even ice storms, depending on local conditions. Meanwhile, a warm air mass is retreating from the eastern U.S., suggesting stark temperature divide that could fuel extreme weather contrasts—think blizzards in the Rockies while the Southeast basks in unseasonable warmth. The placement of low-pressure systems will be critical. If they anchor over the central U.S. or Great Lakes, they could drag cold air southward, threatening crops in the Plains, straining energy grids with surging heating demands, and snarling travel with late-season snowfalls. Past SSW events, such as the March 2018 “Beast from the East” in Europe, brought heavy snowfall and paralyzed transportation, and North America could face a similar scenario. If these systems shift northward, the U.S. heartland may be spared, with cold instead directed into Canada’s Prairie provinces, where impacts could include livestock losses and iced-over hydroelectric lines. Current forecasts remain preliminary, as models are only beginning to capture the early stages of the SSW aftermath, with outcomes hinging on how the vortex fragments and where high-pressure anomalies settle. By mid-March, the weakened vortex—split into fading cores over Eurasia and North America—may leave weather patterns chaotic for weeks, with impacts lingering into April.

Final polar vortex collapse of the season begins - The final polar vortex collapse of the 2024–25 season has begun, according to an analysis by Andrej Flis, published on March 5, 2025, by Severe Weather Europe (SWE). A strong SSW event has begun and will trigger the rapid collapse of the stratospheric polar vortex. As it progresses, a high-pressure system developing over Greenland and eastern Canada will bring late-season cold to much of the United States. The high-pressure system has expanded significantly, exerting pressure on the polar vortex. A strong warming wave has also developed on the outer edge of the vortex, marking the onset of the SSW event that will lead to its full collapse. As the high-pressure system strengthens, it will begin to influence the lower levels of the vortex, triggering a major shift in the stratosphere. Depending on how pressure anomalies in the lower levels interact, this event could significantly impact weather patterns across the United States and the Northern Hemisphere. The polar vortex wind forecast from March 5 to 20 indicates negative values, meaning that winds have reversed from westerly to easterly. The forecast places the wind reversal near the historic minimum threshold, indicating that the upcoming SSW event will be one of the strongest recorded for this time of year. A strong wind reversal is the primary criterion for classifying an event as a major SSW event. 3D rendition of the Polar Vortex split. Image credit: StratObserve Image credit: StratObserve The temperature forecast during the event shows a sharp increase due to a strong warming wave in the stratosphere. There is no indication of a cooldown after the warming, suggesting that the vortex will not recover until the 2025–2026 winter season. The vortex is expected to split as the stratospheric high-pressure system dominates the polar regions over the next 10 days. An SSW event typically results in high-pressure anomalies from the stratosphere reaching the surface, disrupting the jet stream. This disruption allows cold air from the polar regions to move into the United States and other mid-latitude regions. Since the SSW event has just begun, it is still too early to provide precise forecasts. Currently, it is expected to bring cold air from the polar regions into the United States. A cooler zone is also forecast over northern and northwestern Europe due to high-pressure blocking over Greenland and eastern Canada.

US 'vital' for forecasting global weather extremes: UN -- The United States plays a critical role in predicting global weather extremes, the UN stressed Friday, as mass layoffs at a renowned US science agency raised concerns that such life-saving forecasting services could be in peril. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—the leading US agency responsible for weather forecasting, climate analysis and marine conservation—has become a target since President Donald Trump returned to power in January, with hundreds of scientists and experts already let go. The Trump administration is also reportedly considering terminating leases for properties housing vital weather service operations, in what could upend the US ability to provide accurate weather forecasts. The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Friday highlighted how essential NOAA and the United States are to a vast system put in place decades ago to monitor weather and the climate globally. "WMO values US leadership in meteorology, climate, hydrology, oceanography and atmospheric science," WMO spokeswoman Clare Nullis told reporters in Geneva. "It provides vital weather, climate and water data and expertise which are vital to national and global well-being in our interconnected world." The United States on average provides up to a quarter of the flow of meteorological satellite information used in operations globally. It also provides three percent of globally-shared land surface meteorological observations and 12 percent of so-called upper air radiosonde profiles, which are the basic ground-based observations needed for global weather prediction.Combined with data provided by other countries, this "is the basis for accurate global weather predictions, which in turn are the basis for protecting people and livelihoods everywhere",

Trump EPA nominee: Adapt to climate change, not mitigate --President Trump’s pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) office in charge of climate change and air pollution said Wednesday that the U.S. should “adapt to” rather than try to minimize climate change. Aaron Szabo’s comment came during questions from Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) during his confirmation hearing on Wednesday. “What are key climate tipping points that you would watch in your position to try to avoid?” Whitehouse asked. “I believe that the climate is changing. I believe that it is important for us to adapt to any change, including those that occur with respect to climate,” said Szabo, who, if confirmed, will lead the EPA’s Air and Radiation office. “Not to mitigate to prevent it, just to adapt to it?” Whitehouse asked. “I’m currently — and if confirmed — am bound by the laws that Congress has established,” Szabo replied. Whitehouse then asked him if people are “now on a pathway to climate safety, or do we need to do more to reduce carbon emissions in order to get out of that pathway?” “I believe that we need to be adapting to all changes, including those to the climate,” Szabo replied. . Szabo’s comments come after EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin reportedly recommended overturning the EPA’s finding that climate change poses a danger to public health.

Agriculture is main cause of seasonal carbon ups and downs, study finds -The overall amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been steadily increasing, a clear trend linked to human activities and climate change. Less concerning but more mysterious, the difference between the highest and lowest amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere each year has also been increasing.This widening disparity between carbon dioxide peaks and dips was thought to be caused by warming temperatures and more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but a new study led by Colorado State University has found that agriculture is the primary cause of seasonal carbon cycle swings. This discovery adds to scientific understanding of the carbon cycle and could help inform climate change mitigation strategies.The findings are published in the journal Nature Communications.While climate and carbon dioxide concentrations do contribute to annual carbon cycle highs and lows, the research found that agricultural nitrogen fertilizer is the biggest contributor to fluctuations, highlighting the impact of human actions and land management decisions on Earth system processes."These findings are important because we have undervalued the role of agriculture in carbon cycle fluxes," said lead author Danica Lombardozzi, an assistant professor of ecosystem science and sustainability. "A lot of people recognize that agriculture can help mitigate climate change, but because it's not represented in most Earth system models, it's not considered in climate change projections the way it should be." Annual carbon cycle fluctuations indicate how much the biosphere is growing every year, Lombardozzi explained. As plants grow in the spring, they draw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. After crops are harvested and other plants go dormant in the fall, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases. Plants need nitrogen to absorb carbon dioxide and grow. Most crops around the world are fertilized with nitrogen, which is necessary for food production and causes more carbon to be drawn from the atmosphere to fuel greater growth. The study found that agricultural nitrogen is responsible for 45% of the fluctuation increase in the annual carbon cycle. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and warmer temperatures contribute 40% and 18%, respectively. The increasing fluctuation driven by crops doesn't necessarily impact carbon storage, Lombardozzi said, because crops are harvested every year and the carbon they absorb is returned to the atmosphere. However, agricultural management can be adapted to store more carbon in the soil in the long term, which would help to mitigate climate change.

Equal distribution of wealth is bad for the climate, expert argues -- Both the UN and several Nobel laureates have said that political and economic inequality is a driver of high carbon emissions. The argument is that more democratic societies—where wealth, power and opportunities are more evenly distributed—are better at reducing their emissions.But that is not true—quite the opposite."Some people hold that a rich power elite stands in the way of climate action, and that democracies can more easily implement measures such as banning emissions or raising taxes," said Professor Indra de Soysa from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU's) Department of Sociology and Political Science.The idea that democracy is good for the climate is often ideologically driven, but this is based on a faulty premise.It is actually the case that countries with large economic and political disparities have lower emissions than more democratic countries where wealth and power are more evenly distributed.In practice, a more equal distribution of wealth essentially means that the poorest must receive more."If poor people are given better conditions, total consumption increases. As a result, emissions also increase," explained de Soysa.The countries with the greatest inequalities are also better at implementing greener energy technologies—not worse, as other theorists have assumed.de Soysa investigated data from approximately 170 countries between 1990 and 2020, where the climate figures were taken from the World Bank. Looking at the results, there is no doubt. The paper is published in the journal World Development. "Climate emissions are lowest in countries with major inequalities in various societal aspects, including economy, opportunities and politics," he stated.However, it is not the inequalities themselves that cause this—undemocratic countries often have less money overall, and it is the overall wealth that matters most. Less democratic countries often only have a few wealthy individuals, who tend to be extremely wealthy and hold almost all the power.More democratic countries are generally better at generating more overall wealth, even though this wealth is distributed more evenly among a larger portion of the population. Democratic societies therefore have more wealth in total, and that is not particularly good for the climate.Increased carbon emissions are closely linked to the total consumption of a society."Increased per capita income in a country is clearly and unmistakably linked to higher carbon emissions. The more money a society has, the more it contributes to carbon emissions. More money automatically leads to increased consumption."The more money we have, the more things we buy. Perhaps we also eat more, or we consume more products that have a greater environmental impact, such as eating more meat instead of plant-based foods."Greater freedom leads to greater economic activity, and this increases both consumption and emissions from production. Greater equality in a society exacerbates this, as more people acquire what others have. Just imagine the day when Indians start consuming as much as the Chinese do," said de Soysa.

Starship explodes in spectacular fireball, causing air traffic delays - YouTube videos -The uncrewed SpaceX Starship exploded mid-flight on Thursday, March 6, 2025, after lifting off from the company’s Starbase facility in South Texas at 17:30 CST (23:30 UTC). The Super Heavy booster successfully executed a return and mid-air catch, but the Starship upper stage was lost in a spectacular explosion, causing temporary air traffic disruptions. “During Starship’s ascent burn, the vehicle experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly, and contact was lost. Our team immediately coordinated with safety officials to implement pre-planned contingency responses,” SpaceX stated. According to the company, an “energetic event”—an explosion—in the aft section of Starship caused multiple engine failures, leading to a spin and eventual loss of communication approximately 9 minutes and 30 seconds after liftoff. The loss of signal occurred at a similar point as during Flight 7, when Starship exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands, scattering debris and damaging a vehicle. Videos posted on social media captured fiery streaks lighting up the night sky over the Caribbean and Bahamas, with some users describing it as “a meteor shower meets fireworks.”

Waste Of The Day: $95 Million Worth Of EV Buses Were Never Delivered -- The Biden administration gave Canadian electric bus maker The Lion Electric Company $160 million in subsidies to manufacture 435 buses for schools around the U.S. The company is nearing bankruptcy and laid off almost half its employees, but $95 million of the buses have still not been provided, according to the Washington Free Beacon. Some of the $65 million worth of buses that were delivered are not without problems. The Environmental Protection Agency is investigating Lion Electric for fraud after the buses it sent to Winthrop Public Schools in Maine were unusable for a year and a half due to faulty parts. Lion Electric received the third most money of all manufacturers subsidized by President Biden’s $5 billion Clean School Bus program, yet there are still 55 school districts waiting for their buses, the Free Beacon reported.Meanwhile, Lion Electric’s stock has fallen to $.08 per share compared to $33.48 in January 2021. The company has also allegedly faced issues with properly disclosing its finances. A group of investors sued the company last year for its allegedly "grossly unrealistic financial projections,” and the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a warning last August over inaccurate numbers The issues were already clear when the government awarded its grant to Lion Electric in October 2022. The company had reported $17.2 million in losses in the previous three months, the Free Beacon reported. Winthrop Public Schools in Maine is in a particularly tough spot. The school is required to either use the EV buses or pay back the federal grant used to buy them. Many of the buses are out of commission, and the school says Lion Electric has not provided support. Lion Electric is required to pay Winthrop back for any time the buses spend off the road, but the school told Central Maine they don’t expect to get the $57,000 they are owed.The company nearly received another $50 million subsidy from the State of Illinois, but it failed to keep the required number of employees on staff.

Trump admin drops lawsuit over toxic emissions in Louisiana --The Trump administration has dropped a lawsuit that sought to cut toxic emissions from a facility in a highly polluted area of Louisiana known as “Cancer Alley.” In 2023, the Biden administration filed a lawsuit against Denka Performance Elastomer in an effort to get it to cut down its emissions of chloroprene. Chloroprene is a chemical that’s used in the production of neoprene, a material that is used to make wetsuits, hoses and adhesives. The EPA considers chloroprene to be a likely carcinogen. When it filed the lawsuit, the EPA said that Denka’s emissions of chloroprene posed “an imminent and substantial endangerment” to public health. “The endangerment is imminent because Denka emits chloroprene at levels that are producing unacceptably high risks of cancer to the people, including children, that are regularly exposed to the Facility’s emissions,” the lawsuit said. “Hundreds of children attend school near the Facility and currently breathe the air there.” However, the Trump administration voluntarily dropped the lawsuit this week. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) declined to explain why, referring The Hill to the Justice Department, which did not immediately respond to The Hill’s request for comment. Denka, the company that was being sued, thanked the Trump administration for dropping the case in a written statement, saying it was “lacking scientific and legal merit.”

U.S. EPA Will Delay Midwest Ethanol Expansion in South Dakota, Ohio (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday it would delay an action by one year to expand sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline in South Dakota and Ohio, two of eight Midwestern states that requested the agency approve increased sales of the product. The EPA's statement on Friday follows its decision last week to uphold an April 28 implementation date for the request from eight Midwest governors to allow year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, a blend known as E15. States had until February 26 to seek a one-year delay. The EPA's implementation will now only apply to Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Wisconsin - after South Dakota and Ohio opted for the delay. The EPA's expansion is meant to enable both E15 and the more widely available E10 fuel blends to be sold during the summer, where the existing policy often keeps E15 out of the market. While biofuel producers have long wanted expanded sales of the E15 blend, they would prefer a nationwide solution that goes beyond just the Midwest region. Oil Trade Group Pushes U.S. for National Ethanol Policy After EPA Okays Midwest Expansion The oil trade group the American Petroleum Institute also prefers a nationwide policy, as some industry players worry a fragmented market could lead to localized supply disruptions. Kansas, which was not among the eight states addressed in the final rule, had submitted a similar request to Ohio and South Dakota's petition for a one-year delay, the EPA said on Friday. "Earlier this month, (Kansas Governor Laura Kelly) expressed continued interest in a temporary Gasoline Volatility Waiver for the upcoming summer months as she has in previous years," Kelly's spokesperson Grace Hoge told Reuters. "While Kansas did not request to be included in recent actions taken by other Midwest states, Governor Kelly remains committed to addressing this critical issue and will continue advocating for a federal solution that empowers consumers with the freedom to select their preferred fuel type."

Energy Secretary Chris Wright throws support behind geothermal boom -- Secretary of Energy Chris Wright on Tuesday threw his support behind a vast expansion in geothermal energy.Emerging forms of geothermal use technology from the fossil fuel industry to generate power on demand without air pollution — something Wright’s company, Liberty Energy, invested millions in.While geothermal “hasn’t achieved liftoff yet, it should and it can, Wright told attendees at MAGMA, a Republican-facing pro-geothermal event in D.C on Tuesday.A mature geothermal industry, he said, “could “better energize our country, improve the quality of life for everyone. It could help enable AI, manufacturing, reshoring and stop the rise of our electricity prices.”“I look across this room and I see people that are going to make geothermal happen,” he added.Wright name-checked geothermal as one of his department’s primary areas of focus, and it was one of the zero-carbon forms of energy — along with nuclear and hydropower — specifically cited by President Trump in his National Energy Emergency executive order.But Wright’s comments on Tuesday were by far his most fulsome on the subject of geothermal as secretary. They came as a significant coup for an industry that has feared wholesale cuts to the support it has received through Biden-era tax credits and programs at the Department of Energy — where it sits exposed as part of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

Painesville sees spike in natural gas odor reports after supplier change, fire officials report — Fire officials in Painesville say they responded to "a spike of calls regarding natural gas odors both inside and outside structures throughout the area" on Monday. According to a Facebook post from the Painesville City Fire Department, both Enbridge Gas (formerly Dominion) and Northeast Ohio Natural Gas changed suppliers over the weekend and that an excessive amount of the odor additive Mercaptan was the issue. However, Enbridge Gas Ohio tells 3News that its natural gas lines are not involved with the odor investigation. "Our service area overlaps with Northeast Ohio Natural Gas and that's causing confusion for residents," the company wrote in a statement to 3News. "Natural gas is naturally odorless. The rotten egg smell associated with gas is the chemical Mercaptan, which is added to help identify leaks and is a safety precaution. This excess amount of Mercaptan is causing some lingering odors when appliances start up," PCFD explained. Painesville fire leaders say both Enbridge Gas and Northeast Ohio Natural Gas will "respond to all calls about natural gas odors both inside and outside structures. PCFD will also respond to all calls of gas odors to make sure no hazards exist." Those who smell natural gas are encouraged to call 911 and advised then to "evacuate the building and wait for the fire department."

Supreme Court appears divided on offsite nuclear waste storage - The Supreme Court appeared split Wednesday on the question of whether the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission has the authority to license private, temporary offsite storage of nuclear waste. In the case, Nuclear Regulatory Commission v. Texas, an appeals court vacated an NRC license for a planned waste storage facility in Texas, which had been vocally opposed by Gov. Greg Abbott (R). While the case weighs the agency’s power to issue the license for sites separate from the reactor where the waste was created, it also has broader implications for the procedures for challenging an agency’s rulemaking process. In its filing, the NRC argued the state and another party, Fasken Land and Minerals, were not authorized to challenge the license in court after failing to formally object to the initial licensing. Arguing on behalf of the NRC, Deputy U.S. Solicitor General Malcolm Stewart argued the litigants “don’t have an absolute right to intervene.” The court’s liberal wing seemed broadly sympathetic to this argument in their questioning of Fasken attorney David Frederick, with Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson grilling Frederick on whether they met the definition of a “party” regardless of how affected they were by the licensing. “You’re saying ‘if I was excluded wrongly, I’m a party,’” Kagan said at one point. The court also questioned the litigants on the extent to which offsite, private storage of nuclear waste is authorized by federal law, with NRC’s lawyers arguing it is permitted by virtue of not being explicitly barred. Justice Brett Kavanaugh repeatedly pressed Stewart on whether offsite storage is explicitly authorized, while Jackson argued that the statutory language incentivized onsite storage but that that was not equivalent to barring offsite storage. Jackson asked Stewart directly whether he believed Congress would have “clearly made a prohibition statement” if that was their intention, with Stewart replying in the affirmative.The case comes a year after the court significantly pared back federal agencies’ authority to interpret ambiguity in the language of federal laws, ruling against the long-standing Chevron doctrine.

Activists protest at Ohio Statehouse over oil and gas extraction, wastewater injection -- Cleveland.com - – More than 40 people gathered outside the Ohio Statehouse Thursday to voice their opposition to oil and gas extraction and wastewater injection in Ohio.Braving wind and bitter cold, they criticized state lawmakers for allowing the gas industry to drill for natural gas underneath state parks and public lands. And they lashed out at regulators for what they described as overly lax oversight of injection wells, where operators inject toxic brine deep underground at high pressure.

Antis Rally at OH Statehouse to Protest Fossil Fuels They Were Wearing - Marcellus Drilling News -Sorry to be so blunt: You can’t fix stupid. You can only call attention to it, which is what we’re doing with a group of “40 to 50” protesters who gathered yesterday at the Ohio Statehouse to protest drilling for oil and gas under state-owned land, including drilling under (not on) state parks. It was cold and blustery, so they get props for coming out in the foul weather. However, all of the clothes they wore, including the coats, hats, mittens, gloves, boots, not to mention their signage, the glasses some of them wore, the cell phones in their pockets, the bullhorn and podium the used—were all made from the very oil and gas they were protesting. Not to mention none of them arrived there by horse and buggy or by walking. They all drove vehicles made from and powered by fossil fuels. Do they realize how ridiculous they looked? No, we suppose not.

OH Dem Intros Bill to Force Disclosure of Frack Chemical Names - Marcellus Drilling News - In January 2023, Ohio House Bill (HB) 507 became law with the signature of Gov. Mike DeWine (see OH Gov. Signs Bill Expanding Drilling in State Parks, NatGas “Green”). The law allows shale drilling under (but not on top of) Ohio state-owned land, including state parks. HB 507 encourages (pushes for) more drilling under state-owned land. Since that time, lefty Democrats have tried their best to bully, berate, and otherwise block drilling under (not on) state-owned land. Their histrionics can be quite amusing (take a gander at the nutballs pictured in this post: Ohio O&G Commission Approves More Fracking Under State Lands). The newest tactic from the left comes via a Democrat member of the Ohio House who introduced legislation requiring oil and gas well owners to publicly disclose chemicals used in drilling operations within state parks before they drill or frack.

EPA investigates oil spill in Little Cuyahoga River -The Environmental Protection Agency is investigating an oil spill in the Little Cuyahoga River in Akron. Around 4:40 p.m., according to the City of Akron, the Akron Fire Department received a call to the intersection of East Market and Massilon Road to investigate a report of unknown oil in the river. A hazmat team arrived at the scene to contain the spill, and the EPA and other fire department officials were also called to assess the incident. On Monday, the Ohio EPA said the spill was petroleum traced to a vacant industrial building and was less than 100 gallons in volume. Some of the spill made it into a storm drain that flowed into the Little Cuyahoga River, but "containment measures" prevented it from flowing further downstream. No drinking water, wildlife or aquatic life was threatened by the spill, the Ohio EPA said.

EOG Commits to 2 Rigs, 1 Frac Crew in Ohio Utica; Needs Infra. -- Marcellus Drilling News - EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns nearly a half million acres of leases in the Ohio Utica (~460,000 acres). EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and now considers it one of the company’s “premium plays.” EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. During the company’s fourth quarter and full-year update, we learned that EOG has fully committed to operating two rigs and one frac crew in the Ohio Utica in 2025. Looking back at 2024, the company drilled and completed 25 Utica wells. Looking forward to 2025, the plan is to drill and complete another 30 new Utica wells.

Utica Oil Player Ascent Resources 'Considering' an IPO -- Privately held Utica Shale oil producer Ascent Resources is considering an IPO or an M&A exit, it told investors and analysts in a call March 7.But going the IPO or M&A-exit route versus continuing as-is would require the public market—or a buyer—to throw more cash to the 2.2 Bcfe/d operator’s existing investors than they’re already earning in distributions and buybacks, executives said.Of its fourth-quarter output, 14% was liquids, all from eastern Ohio: 51,554 bbl/d, from its 918 operated Utica wells, consisting of 14,011 bbl/d of oil and 37,543 bbl/d of NGL.“We certainly spend a lot of time—both among ourselves and with our board—discussing the IPO markets … and the M&A markets” as well as on continuing as-is, CFO Brooks Shughart said on the call.“We have a significant amount of dialogue across all three of those potential options. And I'd say we are considering how we may or may not play a part in all those.”Jeff Fisher, chairman and CEO, said that, among Ascent’s shareholders, “with the free-cash-flow generation that the business is now throwing off … everybody's very pleased, happy.”And there’s more to come, he added.“We've got an opportunity in front of us to increase that substantially this year. That's … really our focus and we sit in a very, very good position,” he said.But “it’s great to have options.”Ascent’s plan is to “continue to run the business and optimize the business as best we can on a go-it-alone basis for at least for a little bit,” Shughart said in the call.Ascent is a Top 5 producer in Ohio’s Utica oil fairway, along with newly public Infinity Natural Resources, privately held Encino Energy, publicly held EOG Resources and Expand Energy, which picked up its Ohio position in an Oct. 1 merger with Southwestern Energy.Infinity’s IPO on Jan. 31 valued its leasehold, including in the Utica oil window and in the Marcellus Shale’s gas window, at $52,700 per flowing boe/d.Fisher said, “It's good to see the markets returning. We've had a lot of interest [in Ascent] obviously.“But we're being pretty measured in how we approach that going forward from a position of strength.”Attention was drawn to the Utica’s oil fairway when EOG announced in 2022 that it had accumulated a position, which now totals 460,000 net acres.The majority was picked up from Encino, which had bought most of its position from Chesapeake Energy, which is now known as Expand.Fisher said, “The volatile oil window sure has gotten a lot of attention and rightfully so. It's been kind of a well-kept secret for a long time and we remain very excited about it, and we'll continue to focus on it.”As for whether Ascent would be on the buyside of an M&A deal—and of property outside the Utica too—"we obviously look with interest across the U.S. at various opportunities,” Fisher said.“But our dollars are best spent on where we can maximize margins and basically riff off of the great franchise that we built here in the Utica.”Shughart said there are deals out there. “There are smaller land deals [of] 10s to 20s of millions of dollars all the way up to multi-billion-dollar opportunities.”But, he said, “we are focused on the cash flow.”In 2022, Ascent bought Exxon Mobil’s XTO Energy subsidiary out of Ohio’s Utica for $270 million. The deal followed others totaling $1.5 billion from Hess Corp., CNX Resources Corp., Utica Minerals Development and an undisclosed seller.Ascent’s leasehold totals 375,600 net acres in the Utica’s volatile oil, wet gas and dry gas windows, including 76,600 mineral acres.It also holds some sections of acreage in the mostly undeveloped Utica black oil fairway, in which EOG is looking at 3D seismic now. EOG picked up another 15,000 acres in Ascent’s neighborhood recently in the volatile oil window.Fisher said, “We are looking to add to our inventory all the time. …We're essentially replacing our inventory each year as we go.”In the oil window, a position in Guernsey County was part of its founding leasehold. “It's really the best rock, so that's really our focus,” Fisher said.Ascent’s four-well Lodge development in Guernsey County, Washington township, came online on Oct. 19 and produced 488,678 bbl of oil combined in its first 74 days, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources data.Associated gas and NGLs totaled 1.3 Bcfe. Lateral lengths were not disclosed. Into 2025, the Lodge pad’s first-90-day output averaged more than 6,500 bbl of oil/d and 2,600 bbl/d of NGL, totaling more than 9,100 bbl/d of liquids, Keith Yankowsky, Ascent COO, said on the call.

Shale a “Game Changer” for Youngstown, OH Compressor Company - Marcellus Drilling News - How often have we read that shale energy doesn’t create jobs and isn’t the economic boom to local communities as advertised. The enviro-left peddles the lie that oil and gas companies get fat on profits while everyone else suffers. We have the perfect story that exposes the left’s lies about the economic benefits of shale energy—and it comes from Youngstown, OH. Dearing Compressor & Pump designs and manufactures compressor packages for three major business lines including natural gas pipelines.

Gulfport Targets More NGLs & Crude Production in Ohio for 2025 | Marcellus Drilling News - Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 numbers last week. The company drills Utica and Marcellus wells in Ohio. It also has an active drilling program in the Oklahoma SCOOP shale play. Gulfport’s net daily production in 4Q24 averaged 1,055.5 MMcfe/d (1.06 Bcfe/d), down slightly from 4Q23’s average of 1,063.3 MMcfe/d. Gulfport’s net daily production for the full year of 2024 averaged 1.05 Bcfe/d, consisting of 841.7 MMcfe/d in the Utica and Marcellus and 212.4 MMcfe/d in the SCOOP. Put another way, the M-U produced 80% of the company's production. For the full year of 2024, Gulfport’s net daily production mix comprised approximately 92% natural gas, 6% NGLs, and 2% oil and condensate. According to the 4Q update, Gulfport plans to boost liquids production by 30% in 2025.

Smart Sand Predicts Growth of Frac Sand for Utica Drillers in 2025- Marcellus Drilling News -Smart Sand is a fully integrated frac and industrial sand supply and services company, offering complete mine to wellsite proppant and logistics solutions to frac sand customers and a broad offering of products for industrial sand customers. The company produces low-cost, high quality Northern White sand, a premium sand used as a proppant to enhance hydrocarbon recovery rates in the hydraulic fracturing of oil and natural gas wells. The company’s main markets are the Bakken and Marcellus. However, the company is increasingly supplying sand to Ohio Utica drillers.

16 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 24 – Mar 2 -- Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Feb 24 – Mar 2, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells increased by a couple. Four weeks ago, 24 new permits were issued. Three weeks ago, the number increased to 36 new permits. Two weeks ago, the number deflated, going down to 14. Last week, we added two permits for a total of 16 new permits issued. The Keystone State (PA) issued just one new permit, which went to Snyder Brothers for a well in Armstrong County. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | ENCINO ENERGY | ENERGY COMPANIES | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | MARSHALL COUNTY | SNYDER BROTHERS | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY

Oil & Gas Advisory Board To Hear DEP Update On Water, Wastewater Shale Gas Well Development Pipelines; Methane Migration; Guidance On Dewatering Impoundments March 20 DEP’s Oil and Gas Technical Advisory Board is scheduled to meet on March 20 to hear updates on water and wastewater shale gas well development pipelines, methane migration and guidance on dewatering water impoundments.Also on the agenda are the federally-funded conventional oil and gas well plugging program, oil and gas wastewater injection well permitting and other topics.Dan Counahan, Director of the Bureau of Oil and Gas Operations, is on the agenda to provide an update on the hundreds of miles of water and wastewater pipelines that carry millions of gallons of water used to develop shale gas wells.There have been a series of significant incidents of water pipelines splitting and breaking releasing water that contaminated drinking water wells and streams.The water wells of several families in Cameron County were contaminated after a Seneca Resources wastewater pipeline ruptured and spilled an estimated 18,000 gallons of wastewater. Read more here.A Range Resources water pipeline whipped around like a garden hose after suffering a blowout that launched a “pig” sent through the line to clean it into the air. Read more here. In another, a CNX wastewater pipeline continued pumping for 24+ hours after it was punctured by earth moving equipment. Read more here.Water intakes and related freshwater pipelines have also caused issues, notably in the Exceptional Value Loyalsock Watershed in Lycoming County where a water intake and related pipelines resulted in significant water quality violations that threatened the habitat of the Eastern Hellbender as they crossed the stream. Read more here. Real questions have been raised about how many miles of each type of water and wastewater pipelines and whether they are even mapped. Other questions include whether any agency regulates how the pipelines themselves are constructed (materials, construction, maintenance methods), how they are secured to prevent ruptures and whether there are any comprehensive standards for their operation and continuous monitoring.[The answer to that is the Public Utility Commission has no jurisdiction and DEP doesn’t have standards on construction or operation of these frequently high pressure pipelines.] There are also questions about how and when water well owners and public water suppliers are notified of spills that could affect them.DEP proposed draft Technical Guidance for Maintaining Freeboard and Dewatering Well Development Impoundments for shale gas well development on January 4. Read more here.The guidance outlines how shale gas well owners can develop a plan to prevent pollution to the waters of this Commonwealth as it relates to land application of excess water from a well development impoundment for maintaining freeboard while the impoundment is in use and also for dewatering the impoundment of all water prior to decommissioning it for restoration.The public comment period closed February 3.

DEP Orders Energy Transfer/Sunoco To Install Water Treatment Systems In Over 200 Homes Impacted By Petroleum Products Pipeline Leak In Bucks County -- On March 6, the Department of Environmental Protection issued an order to Energy Transfer/Sunoco to provide water to residents in Upper Makefield Township, Bucks County affected by a leak in Energy Transfer’s 14-inch jet fuel/petroleum products pipeline. Energy Transfer will be required to install point-of-entry-treatment systems to over 100 homes in the Mt. Eyre neighborhood and remediate the affected areas. To date, treatment systems have been installed at 42 residences, six of which had results above drinking water standards for petroleum products, with detectable contamination at other residences. Energy Transfer has agreed to install at least 102 more treatment systems at the request of homeowners.The point-of-entry treatment filtration systems that have been installed are designed to remove all contaminants from drinking water.“Today’s order will ensure that these residents have safe drinking water, the contamination is cleaned up, and the community has a direct line of contact with Energy Transfer to express their concerns,” said DEP Acting Secretary Jessica Shirley. “Clean, safe drinking water is one of the most important resources we have, whether that is from a public water supplier or a private water well. Pennsylvanians have a constitutional right to pure water and we will work to ensure that right is protected in Upper Makefield Township.”DEP already had insisted on water testing at impacted homes, and so far, under DEP oversight, a third-party contractor has taken 447 samples of well water for petroleum contamination. DEP is conducting stream assessments and water chemistry sampling of three nearby streams: Dyers Creek, Houghs Creek and an unnamed tributary. DEP also is overseeing hydrology testing to characterize the subsurface affected area and better understand groundwater flow, which will help inform the longer-term remediation plan. In addition to requiring temporary relief such as bottled water, DEP’s Order requires Energy Transfer to submit an enforceable schedule for completing its environmental investigations and submitting cleanup plans to address the impacts of the leak. Governor Josh Shapiro also sent a letter to the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), calling on federal leaders to hold Energy Transfer accountable under their authority. The federal government has primary jurisdiction related to operation of the pipeline itself under the Pipeline Safety Act. More details can be found on DEP’s community webpage for Upper Makefield Pipeline.Click Here for a copy of DEP’s announcement.For more information on environmental programs in Pennsylvania, visit DEP’s website. Submit Environmental Complaints; Click Here to sign up for DEP’s newsletter; sign up for DEP’s eNotice; Like DEP on Facebook, Follow DEP on Twitter and visit DEP’s YouTube Channel. NewsClips:

• -- Courier Times: Bucks County Residents Demand Answers On Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline Inspection Report For 2023 Flash Flood
• -- WHYY: Bucks County Residents Call For Shutdown Of Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline [After 16 Month Leak Contaminated Wells]: ‘Our Lives Have Been Upended’
• -- Inquirer - Frank Kummer: Bucks County Residents Fear Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline Leak Could Be More Widespread Than Company Acknowledges; Class Action Lawsuit Expected To Be Filed
• -- Courier Times: Energy Transfer/Sunoco Disputes Findings, Recommended Fixes Of Federal Pipeline Regulator In Jet Fuel Pipeline Leak Investigation In Bucks County
• -- Courier Times: Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline In Bucks County Operational Again After Leaking Fuel For 16 Months, Some Are Worried
• -- Courier Times: More Wells In Bucks County Contaminated, Residents Fear Impact Of Energy Transfer/Sunoco Pipeline Leak Spreading

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do - Move Away From Long-Term Deals Carries Risk for LNG Buyers, Producers | RBN Energy - The long-term contract has been the cornerstone of the global LNG industry since its inception. Such contracts between upstream LNG producers and downstream utility companies have provided buyers with security of supply over a protracted period while guaranteeing producers sufficient income to justify the investment in export facilities and shipping fleets. But times are changing, with significant LNG volumes under long-term contracts scheduled to expire by 2031. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential implications for LNG buyers and producers around the world, the options available to them, and how their choices may impact LNG commercial models. The long-term LNG contract, typically running for 20-25 years, has allowed producers, over time, to expand production — all LNG plants have spare capacity — with the result that a short-term market has developed, generally defined as contracts of four years or less. In 2023, short-term volumes of LNG — which includes cargoes that were transacted on a spot basis — accounted for 35% of global LNG imports, or 141 million metric tons (MT), compared to only 19%, or 41.6 million MT, in 2010. The increase in short-term trade is a reflection of the increasing commoditization of LNG. Although the long-term contract remains, for now, the major medium for contracting LNG supply, accounting for 260 million MT (34.4 Bcf/d) of 2023 imports, more than 100 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa; 13.2 Bcf/d) of global long-term contracts are due to expire by 2031, as shown in Figure 1 below.We should emphasize that the impact of this trend, should it continue, would affect U.S. LNG contracts at a later date. The first U.S. LNG export facility, Cheniere’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana, shipped its first cargo in 2016, so any long-term contracts for that site would likely go until at least 2036. Meanwhile, Calcasieu Pass has 20-year contracts that haven’t even started yet. Likewise, most of the new U.S. projects being built offer 20-year contracts that won’t even begin until the end of this decade. (To track the progress of U.S. LNG export projects under development, see our weekly LNG Voyager report.) It’s also important to note that the need for project financing — and the long-term commitments that provide it — is not needed for terminals that have already been built and the original 20-year-old deals underpinning them have expired, which makes shorter arrangements more viable. In addition, some of the long-term commitments signed recently for projects under development also provide volumes today — bridging cargoes intended to meet a buyer’s potential supply gap.A feature of long-term, or legacy, contracts is that they represent a “liner” trade model with fixed annual contract quantities and high take-or-pay obligations. This originally served the industry well, as utilities could predict and manage demand growth in tandem with their LNG purchasing requirements. However, the advent of large amounts of variable renewable electricity (i.e., wind and solar power) in some LNG-consuming countries has increased uncertainty about just how much LNG buyers require — not only on a long-term basis, but seasonally, and even monthly. This creates major uncertainties for LNG buyers in terms of the volumes and durations to which they can commit. Consequently, producers cannot take the automatic extension of existing long-term contracts under their rigid terms for granted. The expiry of legacy LNG contracts allows buyers to source supply on more flexible terms and potentially under different pricing formulas from the predominantly oil-based, long-term contracts that are due to expire.Examples of contract terminations in recent years provide some precedents. As we noted in (Not So) Big in Japan, Japan’s JERA declined in 2022 to extend its 25-year contract with Qatargas (now QatarEnergy) for 5.5 MMtpa (0.73 Bcf/d). The Qatari contract was linked to the Japan Customs Cleared (JCC) oil price and precluded the buyers from selling the LNG to third parties under so-called destination restrictions, which the Japanese buyers had railed against for several years. Instead, JERA has focused its attentions on other sources, including Freeport LNG in the U.S., where it has access to LNG indexed to Henry Hub gas prices and is free of destination restrictions, allowing JERA to expand its global trading ambitions. In addition, JERA has signed up for 2.35 MMtpa (0.31 Bcf/d) from Oman, commencing in 2025. The contract has a 10-year duration, reflecting the uncertainty buyers face regarding their long-term LNG needs. The message is that LNG buyers are seeking lower commitment and greater diversity in supply sources and pricing formula, against a background of increasing uncertainty in gas demand.Although the LNG market has always been regarded as a growth one, recent experience shows that demand, both long and short term, can fall. For example, Pakistan has deferred an agreement to buy LNG from Qatar for a year, and Egypt has recently experienced problems in accommodating the volumes of LNG it had committed to under a tender. The need for supply flexibility to meet buyer needs is becoming increasingly important. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that, unlike the oil industry, LNG has very limited storage capacity to accommodate swings in demand and supply. Global LNG storage has been estimated at less than 10 days of global demand, compared with more than 60 days for oil. When market dislocations occur, either on the demand or supply side, a lack of storage will likely manifest itself as increased price volatility as players seek to restore market balance.These demand vagaries suggest that LNG buyers will need to make use of a range of purchasing options, including short-term contracts, strips of cargoes (i.e., a multi-cargo contract typically spanning the short to medium term) and spot purchases. The expiry of long-term contracted volumes that we noted at the top is helping pave the way for a portfolio approach to purchasing LNG on a more volume-flexible basis. One thing that seems clear, however, is that LNG purchased under long-term, take-or-pay contracts will form a decreasing proportion of the portfolio. While some might argue that this undermines security of supply — you can’t build new terminals without those initial commitments — LNG is now highly commoditized. One crucial feature of a commodity is that it is always available (for a price, of course), as evinced by the ability of Europe to ramp up its LNG imports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (see Lublin on the Edge and Help is on the Way).What does this change in buyer objectives mean for LNG projects looking to take a final investment decision (FID), especially those in the U.S.? These projects are looking for buyers prepared to commit to contract durations of 15 years or more with volume purchase obligations of more than 1 MMtpa (0.13 Bcf/d) in order to obtain the financing required to take FID. Aggregating such demand — especially for a large project looking to realize economies of scale — is a challenge, requiring negotiations with multiple buyers, each having different requirements in terms of volume, timing and duration. This inevitably adds to project delays while LNG developers assemble a critical mass of long-term commitments. Intense competition among projects for buyers only adds to the uncertainty as to which projects will proceed and when. The binding sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) underpinning the projects have conditions precedent, including backstop dates for FID, which, if not satisfied in a timely manner, allow the offtaker to pursue other opportunities. That, of course, is before regulatory approvals are taken into consideration, which can lead to further delays, as we have seen over the last year (see Tired of Waiting for You).Essentially, LNG project sponsors want counterparties willing to take market risk over a protracted period. Two types of counterparties have emerged in response to this requirement. The first is the portfolio player model: BP, Shell and TotalEnergies. These are now being joined by ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, both of which have signed up for volumes from Mexico Pacific’s Saguaro LNG project, for example (see Two Of Us). These companies are deliberately long in LNG, shipping and import terminal capacity, giving them opportunities to optimize their operations among a wide span of buyers across multiple markets. These players are shouldering price and market risk and incur high fixed costs for shipping, terminal capacity, tolling fees and large trading teams.

Golden Pass LNG Nabs Commissioning Extension to 2029 - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has granted a permit extension to Golden Pass LNG as the Trump administration continues to accelerate authorizations for U.S. export projects. Marking the third LNG-related authorization since Energy Secretary Chris Wright took the DOE reins last month, the agency Wednesday granted a request by Golden Pass LNG that had been pending since August. “Exporting U.S. LNG supports American jobs, bolsters our national security and strengthens America’s position as a world energy leader,” Wright said. “President Trump has pledged to restore energy dominance for the American people, and I am proud to help deliver on that agenda with today’s permit extension.”

Venture Global Plans 18 Mt/y Expansion for Plaquemines LNG Export Project -- Fresh off of its initial public offering launch, Venture Global LNG Inc. is looking to use the momentum from a wave of U.S. regulatory changes to sanction a third Plaquemines LNG expansion in the next few years. The Virginia-based LNG exporter disclosed Thursday plans to build an additional 24 modular liquefaction trains at its Plaquemines LNG site south of New Orleans. Estimated to be an $18 billion investment, the phase three expansion would boost Venture’s export capacity at the Plaquemines site by 18 million tons/year (Mt/y) for a combined 45 Mt/y. CEO Mike Sabel said the firm’s financial momentum from its commissioning cargoes at the first two facilities and the shifting regulatory winds in the United States have created a prime opportunity for continued growth.

EOG Targeting LNG, Power Demand, as South Texas Dorado Adding More Natural Gas Supply -- Executives at multi-basin exploration and production firm EOG Resources Inc. see support for natural gas prices this year on the back of rising power and LNG demand. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Waha daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. In a fourth quarter conference call, CEO Ezra Yacob also noted the drop in natural gas inventories below the five-year average for the first time in more than two years. Despite a difficult price environment in 2024, the Houston-based independent’s natural gas output grew. Natural gas output was 2.09 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter from 1.95 Bcf/d in 4Q2023. Full-year production was 1.95 Bcf/d, versus 1.71 Bcf/d in 2023.

LNG Buildout Seen Loosening Market, but Not for Long, Says Wood Mackenzie Expert --A wave of new LNG supply may loosen the global natural gas market in the coming years, but this would likely spur a corresponding uptick in demand, according to Wood Mackenzie’s Ed Crooks, vice chair for the Americas. Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures settles with historical market volatility. It is “clearly the case that the Trump administration is already stepping on the accelerator in terms of getting permitting approved for new LNG projects,” Crooks told NGI in a recent episode of the Hub & Flow podcast. U.S. LNG feed gas demand has hit record levels in recent weeks, and export capacity is expected to double by 2028 versus 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

US natgas prices jump 8% on record LNG flows, Germany not in talks on Nord Stream 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders said U.S. gas prices also gained support from reports Germany was not in talks with Russia over a "possible pipeline-based supply of Russian gas" via the partly damaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline. That means Germany and the rest of Europe will likely continue to import massive amounts of U.S. LNG. Germany's economy ministry said the country's energy independence from Moscow is crucial. The comments were in response to a weekend report in the Financial Times that a long-time ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin is lobbying the U.S. to restart the $11 billion project. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28.8 cents, or 7.5%, to settle at $4.122 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest level since February 14. The price increase occurred despite record output and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the middle of March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage in coming weeks. Extreme cold weather earlier this year, however, already forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal. With prices down about 9% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange for the second time in 12 weeks, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in March, up from a record 104.7 bcfd in February. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 18. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 119.3 bcfd this week to 114.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.8 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service. Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

US natgas prices jump 6% to 26-month high on record LNG flows, Canada tariff worries - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 9% to a 26-month high on Tuesday on record flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected. Traders said prices also gained support on worries gas exports from Canada to the U.S. could decline due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico that took effect on Tuesday. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 22.8 cents, or 5.5%, to settle at $4.350 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2022. Prices rose despite near-record output and forecasts for mild weather through mid-March, which should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage in coming weeks. Extreme cold weather earlier this year, however, has already forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to around 12% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal. Looking forward, the premium of futures for March over April 2026 rose to a 15-month high on Tuesday. Some analysts said it signals the market is betting energy firms will have a tough time rebuilding stockpiles to normal levels by the winter of 2025-2026, which could cause prices to spike during the winter months if the weather turns extremely cold. March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season and April is the first month of the summer storage injection season. Since gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, traders have said summer should not trade above winter because demand for the fuel is generally higher during winter months. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves on changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion in 2006. Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 104.7 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. On a daily basis, output was on track to decline by 1.8 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 104.7 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a three-week high of 106.5 bcfd on February 28. That compares with an all-time daily high of 106.7 on February 6. In the import market, the U.S. was on track to pull in around 8.3 bcfd of gas from Canada on Tuesday, down from an average of 9.6 bcfd over the prior seven days. That compares with 8.6 bcfd in 2024 and an average of 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023). The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants held at an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in March, the same as February's record high, as new units at Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to fall to a preliminary three-week low of 15.2 bcfd on Tuesday on small declines at several export plants. That compares with an all-time daily high of 16.4 bcfd on February 23.

North American Natural Gas Prices Jump as Tit-for-Tat Trade War Launches -- President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, and natural gas prices jumped. Graph showing Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) NOVA/AECO C daily natural gas price versus U.S. net natural gas imports from Canada. On Tuesday afternoon, the New York Mercantile Exchange contract for April was trading at around $4.500/MMBtu, up 8% from Monday’s close. NOVA/AECO C natural gas was up C9.5 cents to average C$1.945/GJ, according to NGI’s MidDay Price Alert. Natural gas prices at hubs along the U.S.-Mexico border were mixed, with some hubs trading about $7.000 higher day/day, while other locations sank around $3.000, NGI’s Mexico price data show. President Trump cited fentanyl overdose deaths as the reason for the levies.

US natgas prices slide 3% from 26-month high on small storage withdrawal - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Thursday from a 26-year high in the prior session on record output and a federal report showing last week's storage draw was smaller than expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28. That was much smaller than the 92-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with declines of 56 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2020-2024) average draw of 94 bcf for this time of year. Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 11% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14.8 cents, or 3.3%, to settle at $4.302 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since December 2022 for a second day in a row. Gas prices spiked earlier this week on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, including exports. The percentages were higher in some U.S. border states and regions, and some of those U.S. exports went to Canada. Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to decline by 2.4 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary one-week low of 104.5 bcfd on Thursday, down from a three-week high of 106.9 bcfd on February 28. That compares with an all-time daily high of 107.2 on February 6.

US Natural Gas Prices Climb on Cold Weather, Supply Concerns Ahead of Summer - U.S. natural gas prices rose on Friday, setting their best weekly performance in two months, as colder-than-usual weather fueled concerns over supply replenishment ahead of summer when demand typically increases for power generation to run air conditioners. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 9.7 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $4.399 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract is up 14.1% for the week, marking its biggest weekly gain since January. “We’re getting a burst of cold weather late in the season, raising concerns about supply buildup ahead of summer’s cooling demand,” “Despite the current chill, forecasts suggest an unusually hot summer and better-than-expected demand for LNG exports, keeping the longer-term outlook bullish.” The tariff situation adds uncertainty, with a potential slowdown in Canadian exports to the U.S. making it harder to rebuild storage levels. Gas prices spiked earlier this week on record flows to liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and worries Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. In 2024, Canada supplied about 8% of total U.S. gas demand, including exports, and about 1% of total U.S. power demand, again including exports. Some of those power and gas exports returned to Canada. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said energy firms pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28. Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. In the import market, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. have dropped to an average of 8.2 bcfd over the past few days since Trump’s tariffs were imposed, down from an average of 9.8 bcfd during the prior 11-day period from February 21 to March 3, according to LSEG data. That compares with an average of 8.6 bcfd of Canadian gas exports to the U.S. in 2024 and 7.6 bcfd over the prior five years (2019-2023). Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from mostly warmer than normal from March 6-15 to mostly colder than normal from March 16-21. LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will fall from 110.4 bcfd this week to 109.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower compared to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.

Texas workers face mounting dangers in the heart of America's greatest oil boom -Jose Gonzalez* wore no mask, despite the toxic chemicals he worked with in the oil field. “One leak, and no one will hear from you again,” he said. He shrugged. At 31, with three children at home, he faced constant risks in his job as a truck driver in the Permian Basin, both from the chemicals and the relentless pace of the roads where he and other drivers pull 24-hour shifts driving the ingredients and products of fracking — sand, cement, fracking fluid, produced water, oil — from wellhead to storage depot and back again. It didn’t pay, he said, “to think too deeply about the danger.” The Permian Basin, a region spanning west Texas and eastern New Mexico, is the once and future heart of the greatest oil and gas boom in American history, a frenzy of production triggered by the introduction of new technologies like fracking and horizontal drilling in the 2010s. The boom has marked a return to prominence — and prosperity — for a region whose resources once helped the Allies win World War II but that was abandoned by major oil companies decades later amid the great bust of the 1980s. Up Next - Shutdown clock ticks with Trump set to address Congress Once-moribund Permian oil production approximately tripled between 2010 and 2024, making the region the source of 47 percent of U.S. output. Meanwhile, gas production, which largely fuels electric power plants and is used to make plastics and chemicals, has nearly doubled. For President Trump and Texas’s Republican leadership, that outflow offers a prospect of American “energy dominance.” State and federal officials are seeking to amplify the boom even further with promises to “unleash American energy” by cutting climate regulations, speeding up permits of new wells and pipelines, and greenlighting facilities to ship U.S. natural gas overseas.“President Trump will treat oil and natural gas as an asset, not a liability, and domestic energy production and jobs will be prioritized,” Todd Staples, head of the Texas Oil and Gas Association, told reporters in January. But the push to bolster fossil fuel production is heightening concerns among oil field workers and first responders about the mounting dangers facing workers and Permian residents. The region’s prospering oil industry is all too frequently shadowed by injury and death: About 30 Texas workers per year, more than two per month, die of poison gas, explosions, blunt force trauma or vehicle crashes. In October, a Permian Basin worker was engulfed in flames. In December, another was killed by flying debris after a pressure valve explosion. The death toll is higher still on the region’s roads, where drivers like Gonzalez race their oil field cargo back and forth on long shifts. Crashes accounted for two-thirds of oil worker deaths in 2023, according to federal data. But it’s not only truckers who are at risk: The roads have also become more dangerous for the populations of the towns they race through.In 2023, according to the state Department of Transportation, someone died every day on the Permian’s highways — the result of a staggering 73 crashes per day, which left more than two people seriously injured for every one killed. That year, more than 1,000 people died on the highways of all of Texas’s oil-producing regions — making the roads among the most dangerous in the country and exceeding the death toll faced by the U.S. military in its bloodiest year in Iraq. Permian crashes were twice as likely to be fatal as those in the rest of Texas. Out in the Permian — where everyone is up too early, in bed too late, and working under constant stress — Gonzalez told The Hill “accidents are our daily bread.” Between 2010 and 2023, the number of deaths on the region’s roads more than doubled.The rise in fatalities has come alongside a steep increase in oil production that has brought a flood of new fossil fuel workers to the Permian and revitalized its economy. Before the boom, the region had been in decades-long decline following the 1980s bust, when oil majors like Exxon and Shell departed the landscape that had once been the heartland of American oil seemingly never to return and leaving behind empty office buildings and shuttered stores and restaurants.“This part of Texas was dying,” said Kirk Edwards, CEO of Latigo Petroleum and a Midland-Odessa business leader. Now the majors are back, and the region is “thriving,” revived by high-tech methods like fracking and horizontal drilling that turned oil extraction into “a cookbook, almost a manufacturing process,” Edwards said.

Central Valley oil distributor says state-owned oil refineries are a bad idea - As oil refineries continue moving out of California, the state’s energy commission is trying to ease the gasoline supply crisis. According to the Los Angeles Times, state ownership is considered for one or more oil refineries. However, a local oil distributor said bad California policies are to blame for the refinery exodus. “We’ve driven more than half of the refineries out of the state, and now the state thinks that they’re going to jump in and somehow do it better,” West Hills Oil President Scott Cain said. California is going through an oil refinery crisis. “I started in 1992, there were 32 refineries and now we’re down to 14. And over that time period, they’ve made it increasingly hard to do business in the state of California,” Cain said. Phillips 66 is the latest refinery announcing its departure from California by the end of 2025. The California Energy Commission proposed a state takeover of the remaining refineries to ensure a reliable supply of gas, but Cain said that wouldn’t fix the problem. “As a distributor, I sit here and I’m just baffled,” Cain said. “The state of California somehow thinks that they’re going to jump into, you know, a business they’ve never had, you know, any inkling of doing and that they’re going to somehow do a better than the for-profit companies.” Assemblymember David Tangipa also doesn’t understand why anyone would support state-run refineries. “The state wants to take on more and more and more. And yet we don’t have any of the financial institutions in place. We don’t have any money left,” Tangipa said. Both Tangipa and Cain say state regulations, like ending the sale of gas powered cars by 2035, are driving oil refineries out. “This is what we call strangulation through regulation. They are strangling these businesses to where California is just inoperable,” Tangipa said. Cain says doing away with punitive state regulations would solve the problem. “You might even be able to tap somebody like Phillip 66 and to keeping that refinery open in Los Angeles instead of shutting it down in 2025,” Cain said. The Phillips 66 refinery leaving California by the end of this year makes up for 10% of the state’s gasoline supply.

President Trump Touts Alaska LNG Project, Energy Dominance and Vows Tariffs Will Continue-- President Trump on Tuesday night doubled down on expanding U.S. energy might and praised the newly enacted tariffs during a joint address to Congress. A deal, he said, also is advancing that would fulfill a long-held dream to transport Alaska natural gas to Asian markets. In the longest speech ever delivered before a joint session of Congress, the president said “common sense has become a common theme, and we will never go back, never… “A major focus of our fight to defeat inflation is rapidly reducing the cost of energy. The previous administration cut the number of new oil and gas leases by 95%, slowed pipeline construction to a halt and closed more than 100 power plants. We are opening up many of those power plants right now.”

Pembina Extending Natural Gas Opportunities Beyond Cedar LNG, With Alliance Poised to Fuel New Data Center -- With Cedar LNG set to begin exports to Asian markets in three years, aligned with a portfolio of natural gas and liquids projects across Western Canada, Pembina Pipeline Corp. is on the cusp of growing even larger across North America. Speaking with investors during the recent fourth quarter conference call, CEO Scott Burrows said the Calgary-based midstream giant had “an abundance of opportunities ahead of us and a clear pathway to growth.” The midstream giant, which reports in Canadian currency (C$1.00/69 cents), has around $4 billion of secured projects under construction “and more than $4 billion of additional projects in various stages of development,” Burrows noted.U.S. Natural Gas Production, Rising LNG Demand Threaten Summer Price Spikes — A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers. 50 rigs: U.S. Energy Information Administration researchers calculated U.S. natural gas rigs decreased by 32%, roughly 50 rigs, between 2022 and 2024. The majority of that reduction occurred in the Haynesville Shale and Appalachia Basin, which have helped supply the growing demand for feed gas from Gulf Coast LNG terminals during the same period. Both regions declined by a combined 21 rigs last year as natural gas prices continued to crater amid surging oversupply and the pull of LNG demand from Europe. 106 Bcf/d: Analysts with Mansfield Energy Corp. estimated that producers would likely have to ramp up volumes heading into the spring as commissioning LNG projects continues to raise feed gas demand. Mansfield placed average production at the beginning of March at 106 Bcf/d. If power demand during the summer is intense or production volumes lag, Mansfield analysts recently said that natural gas prices could rise “high enough to incentivize switching to coal where economically viable.” 0.8 Mt/y: The Philippines is reportedly one of several Asian countries in talks to sign on for volumes from the proposed Alaska LNG project, but in the meantime, power companies in the Southeast Asian country are relying on trading houses to fill the gap. A unit of South Premiere Power Corp. and Excellent Energy Resources Inc. signed a 10-year, 0.8 million ton/year (Mt/y) contract with Swiss-based Vitol Inc. 7%: Consultants with McKinsey and Co. estimate Germany’s natural gas consumption could continue falling, decreasing by 3-7% below current levels by 2030. The European Union’s manufacturing powerhouse has been impacted by inflation and rising energy costs since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Germany imported 4.57 Mt of LNG last year, a 0.39 Mt decrease year/year, according to Kpler data. The majority of its volumes were spot purchases from U.S. producers.

NFE Moves to Insulate LNG Volumes Against Cooling Volatility in Global Natural Gas Markets -- New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is hedging some volumes from its Mexico LNG export project in anticipation of falling European prices as it progresses the next phase of terminal platforms. Chart showing various global natural gas markets and previous 5-day trading values. NFE’s 1.4 million ton/year (Mt/y) capacity Fast LNG asset began producing and shipping cargoes last September. It delivered around 0.20 Mt by the end of 2024, according to Kpler data. Around 0.13 Mt of the volumes were spot trades, which helped partially offset NFE’s massive capital expenditures and refinancing during the year. Since the beginning of the year, Fast LNG has shipped 0.30 Mt. As NFE prepares its next export expansion in Mexico, CEO Wes Edens said the company is focusing on how to get the best earnings from those cargoes.

Norwegian firm refuses fuel to US warships over Trump's snub to Zelenskyy -- Norwegian fuel company Haltbakk Bunkers has announced an immediate halt of supply to US military forces and naval vessels docking in Norwegian ports, citing dissatisfaction with recent American policy towards Ukraine. The move follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent visit to the White House, where he had a hostile conversation with US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. In a statement shared on Facebook, the company condemned the televised exchange between the leaders, calling it the "biggest s***show ever presented live on TV.” Haltbakk Bunkers praised Zelenskyy for his restraint during the discussion, accusing the US of staging a “backstabbing TV show.” “As a result, we have decided to immediately STOP as fuel provider to American forces in Norway and their ships calling Norwegian ports. No Fuel to Americans!” the company declared, further urging other Norwegian and European fuel providers to follow suit. The statement concluded with “Slava Ukraina,” a slogan widely associated with support for Ukraine. Gunnar Gran, owner of Haltbakk Bunkers, reinforced the company's stance in an interview with Norwegian maritime news outlet Kystens Næringsliv, asserting that “not a litre” of fuel would be supplied to US forces “until Trump is finished.” “We run a private limited company and choose our customers,” Gran stated, adding that his company had previously banned fuel sales to Russian entities following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. “We lost a lot of revenue, but we have a moral compass. Now the United States is excluded based on their behaviour towards the Ukrainians.”

Norway breaks silence after fuel giant 'refuses to fill US navy' -- Norway has officially broken its silence after a Norwegian fuel firm announced a ban on refuelling any US Navy vessels. On Saturday, the Express broke the news that petrol giant Haltbakk Bunkers had banned all sales to US forces following Donald Trump's treatment of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. The firm had announced it will stop providing fuel to all American forces in Norway as it declared "No fuel to Americans!". It posted on social media to declare its support for Zelensky and dealt a serious blow to US President Trump following the unprecedented scenes of discord televised from the Oval Office. Now the Norwegian Minister of Defence has contacted the Express to make clear the country's official position is one of cooperation with the US. Norway's Minister of Defence Tore O. Sandvik told the Express: "We have seen reports raising concerns about support for US Navy vessels in Norway. "This is not in line with the Norwegian government’s policy. I can confirm that all requested support has been provided. The U.S. and Norway maintain a close and strong defense cooperation. American forces will continue to receive the supply and support they require from Norway." Haltbakk Bunker had announced: "We have today been witnesses to the biggest s***how ever presented "live on tv" by the current American president and his vice president. "Huge credit to the president of Ukraine restraining himself and for keeping calm even though USA put on a backstabbing tv show. It made us sick. Short and sweet. As a result, we have decided to immediate STOP as fuel provider to American forces in Norway and their ships calling Norwegian ports. "No Fuel to Americans! We encourage all Norwegians and Europeans to follow our example. SLAVA UKRAINA" Owner of the firm Gunnar Gran has told Norwegian maritime news site Kystens Næringsliv that 'not a litre of fuel' will be delivered 'until Trump is finished'. It reported: "As you probably understand, not a liter will be delivered until Trump is finished, the owner tells Kystens Næringsliv. "We run a private limited company and choose our customers!" The owner also said that the group has excluded Russians since Putin's invasion, adding: "It gave a lot of our competitors a lot of extra revenue. We lost a lot of revenue. But we have a moral compass. Now the United States is excluded based on their behavior towards the Ukrainians." It had said that fuel ban takes effect immediately and applies to vessels calling at Norwegian ports, it says.

U.S., Ukraine Clash Casts Uncertainty Over European Natural Gas Market – European natural gas prices charged higher on Monday largely in response to the calamitous meeting between Ukraine and the United States on Friday that cast a U.S. brokered peace deal with Russia into doubt. a chart showing daily estimated feed gas demand at U.S. LNG export terminals Expand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cut a trip to the United States short after an argument over the war with President Trump and Vice President Vance. The clash left the prospect of some Russian gas supplies returning to Europe a remote possibility for now and created more instability for a gas market already on edge. “Uncertainty abounds following last week’s showdown between the U.S. and Ukraine,” said ING Bank analysts on Monday. “It’s unclear where the U.S. now stands, making a peace deal seem more distant than a week ago.”

Europe Delays Plans to Phase Out Russian Fossil Fuels — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market -- The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will no longer oversee LNG bunkering in U.S. ports or international waters as part of a broader push by the Trump administration to ease restrictions on the energy sector. DOE modified an order issued by the Biden administration to the Jax LNG terminal near Jacksonville, FL, which asserted new oversight for using LNG as a maritime fuel. The facility provides fuel to ships, including cruise ships, car carriers, petroleum tankers and container vessels. DOE said it would no longer exercise jurisdiction over ship-to-ship transfers of LNG for fuel. The only bunkering-related activity that would continue to be considered an export is for ship-to-ship transfers of U.S. LNG when the receiving ship is in the territorial sea of a foreign country, including foreign ports.

Leak at new gas field off Senegal, Mauritania - Work is under way to repair a gas leak at a new offshore natural gas field off Senegal and Mauritania which poses no risk to employees, operator British energy giant BP said Wednesday. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) field shared by the two west African countries began operating on December 31. It was jointly developed by BP, American company Kosmos Energy, Mauritanian hydrocarbons company SMH and Senegal's state-owned Petrosen. A gas leak at one of the GTA wells was discovered on February 19, the Mauritanian environment ministry said on Facebook last week. "A thorough investigation to control the situation and minimise any potential environmental impact" is being carried out, the ministry said. In a statement sent to AFP on Wednesday, BP said "low-rate subsea gas bubbles" were discovered at a GTA well. "We have a plan to stop the bubbles, as part of that plan we have mobilised specialised equipment and personnel," it added. "Considering the low rate of release and the gas and condensate properties, the environmental impact is currently expected to be negligible," BP said, adding there was "no risk to employees". The site's three other wells continue their production activities while the repairs are carried out, it said. Contacted by AFP, Senegalese authorities did not respond. A Dakar-based think tank, LEGS-Africa, called for people in Senegal to be informed of the cause, extent and impacts of the leak. The site aims to produce around 2.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas per year. Delayed several times, the start of production was highly anticipated in both countries, with hopes high it will help transform their economies.

India emerges as top buyer of UAE LNG - India received more than half the UAE’s LNG exports in the first nine months of 2024 while the rest were supplied to other Asian markets, an official report shows. All the LNG exports last year were from the gas treatment plant on Abu Dhabi’s Das Island, which has a production capacity of around 5.8 million tonnes per year, said the report by the Kuwaiti-based Arab Energy Organization (AEO). The quarterly report published this week showed the Das LNG exports surged by nearly 13 percent to around 4.3 million tonnes in the first nine months of last year from about 3.8 million tonnes in the same period of 2023. India accounted for nearly 52 percent of the LNG exports in the first nine months of 2024 while Japan and China received 15 percent each, South Korea and Taiwan 6 percent each. The rest was exported to other Asian markets, according to the report. As for Qatar, it showed the Gulf country was the second largest LNG exporter last year after the US, with exports standing at nearly 60.1 million tonnes in the first nine months.

Aramco Working to Finalize Deals, Build Global LNG Portfolio -- State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, has pieced together a 7.5 million tons/year LNG supply portfolio that it is working to finalize as it moves into the global natural gas market. The capacity includes volumes already available through Aramco’s stake in MidOcean Energy LLC and non-binding deals the company is negotiating. Aramco is owned by the Saudi royal family and is one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies. In recent years, it has been working to boost natural gas output and extend its reach beyond oil into low-emissions fuels.

Ecuador awards oil contract to Chinese-led group to boost ‘crown jewel (Reuters) – Ecuador’s government awarded an onshore oil contract to a consortium led by China’s state-owned producer Sinopec on Monday, in a push to grow crude output from the country’s Sacha block. The block is Ecuador’s most productive, located in the country’s northeastern Amazonian province of Orellana. It pumped 77,000 barrels per day (bpd) last year. The 20-year production sharing contract for Sacha would be run by a consortium comprising Sinopec and Canada’s New Stratus Energy. Energy and Mining Minister Ines Manzano said the consortium has four weeks to sign the contract, and pitched the deal as a way to upgrade an aging but still productive asset. “It’s been said that Sacha is the (local oil sector’s) crown jewel, but I’m sorry to say its a rusty crown and the jewels need to be polished,” she said at a press conference, stressing that the block is not being privatized or sold off. “But it will be operated with greater efficiency,” she said. New Stratus said in a statement on Monday announcing the deal that it includes an upfront cash payment of $1.5 billion, $600 million of which it will pay, with the contract expected to formally commence later this month. Sinopec holds a 60% stake in the consortium, and New Stratus the remaining 40%. Ecuador is one of Latin America’s smaller oil producers, currently producing 465,000 bpd, far behind regional heavyweights Brazil and Mexico. The project could add some 373 million barrels of oil output over the next two decades, with government coffers expected to take 82% of the income generated assuming an average price of $62 per barrel, according to the Ecuadorean government. Guillero Ferreira, deputy hydrocarbons minister, told reporters that the contract should help boost Sacha’s output to 100,000 bpd over the next three years. In the past, officials have said Ecuador does not have the funds or the technology needed to best develop Sacha.

Brazil Plans to Use $3.5-Billion Oil Fund to Bolster Economy - Brazil looks to boost its economy with money from its $3.5-billion social fund, which collects revenues from oil and gas exploration and production, as approval ratings of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have slumped to a record low.Inflation and most of all rising food prices have sapped the confidence of Brazilians in their president in recent weeks.In the middle of February, a poll by pollster Datafolha showed that approval of Lula’s government dropped to 24% from 35% in December—a record low during any of Lula’s three terms in office as president of Brazil.The share of people who view Lula’s administration as bad jumped to 41%, up from 34% in December — a record high.Amid record-low approval, the Brazilian president and his government have now drafted a measure to create a committee to manage the so-called social fund. The fund, created in 2010 to collect royalties from oil, has accumulated $3.5 billion (20 billion Brazilian reals) so far.The committee will be tasked to decide how Brazil should spend the money. It could use it for general budget purposes or transfer it or part of it into different funds, a finance ministry official told Bloomberg.While Lula looks to support the economy amid the worst approval rating ever, he defended oil drilling in the Amazon.Lula is pressuring Brazil’s environmental regulators to approve oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River, arguing that revenue from this new fossil fuel supply could help finance a transition to green energy.“I want it (oil) to be explored. But before exploring, we need to research and see if there is oil and how much oil there is,” Lula said during an interview with radio station Diario last month. “What we can’t do is stay in this endless chatter that drags and drags—Ibama is a government agency, but it seems like it’s working against the government.”

Crack in oil tank causes oil spill in Hamburg – On 2 March, approximately 5,000 liters of an oil-water mixture leaked from a tank into the Elbe River at a company site in Hamburg. The spill spread across an area of about 90,000 cubic meters, according to German Authorities. While the fire department deployed oil booms on the river, the primary damage was on land, affecting the company site and the embankment, rather than the water itself. The leak occurred at an oil waste recycling site in the Kattwykhafen area due to a crack in a heavy fuel oil tank. The mixture contaminated the water surface in the Rethe, a tributary of the Elbe River.The fire department worked for around three and a half hours on Sunday evening with over 30 personnel to contain the spill

Russia adds funding for Kerch Strait oil spill response - The Russian government has allocated approximately RUB104.8 million (US$1.17 million) from its reserve funds to the salvage and pollution control effort following the December 15, 2024 incidentswherein the tankers Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 suffered damage in bad weather in the Kerch Strait between mainland Russia and Crimea.The funds will be used by the Federal Agency for Maritime and River Transportation (Rosmorrechflot) for the purchase of additional spill containment booms with a total length of 12 kilometres and 30 tonnes of biosorbent.The federal government had earlier allocated RUB1.5 billion (US$17 million) for the removal of contaminated sand and the restoration of affected coastal areas. Ongoing work as part of the response effort includes the cutting the hull of Volgoneft-239 to facilitate its immediate disposal, the recovery of spilled oil from the seabed, and the cleanup of nearby beaches. The oil spill resulting from the twin incidents is reportedly one of the worst environmental disasters to occur in the region in years.

Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Dropped by 18% in February - Russia saw its oil and gas budget revenues drop by 18.4% in February from a year earlier, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry.Last month, Russia’s budget received $8.6 billion (771.3 billion Russian rubles) from oil and gas, down from $10.6 billion (945.6 billion rubles) in February last year.The lower oil prices have played a role in Russia’s lower revenues in February 2025 compared to a year earlier.Going forward, Russia’s revenues from oil are set to be volatile, due to the January sanctions on Russian oil trade, which may delay some shipments and payments until the supply chains are reshuffled.Proceeds from oil and gas sales are the most important cash stream for Russia’s federal budget.Russia has been signaling it would be seeking to reduce its dependence on oil to minimize the impact of volatile oil and gas prices on its budget revenues.Meanwhile, in recent weeks Moscow has been struggling to offload its crude.Tankers continue to load crude oil from Russia but many of these are seeing difficulty in delivering the cargo to ports as buyers avoid supply chain sanctioned by the United States, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.The Biden Administration’s farewell sanctions on Russian oil trade were the most aggressive yet and sanctioned dozens of vessels that Russia used to ship the ESPO crude blend from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino to China’s independent refiners. Many of the vessels, specialized tankers, and shuttle tankers transporting Russia’s oil from the Arctic and Far East Pacific fields and production clusters to Asia have now been sanctioned. Of the 19 vessels loaded from the Sakhalin Island in Russia since the U.S. sanctions came into effect, only five have delivered their cargoes to a final port of destination, according to the data reported by Bloomberg.

Chinese Refiners Slash Run Rates as Sanctions Cripple Russian Crude Supply China’s independent refiners have slashed their processing rates to the lowest level in nearly five years as costs to procure crude soared amid dwindling Russian supply following the latest U.S. sanctions.Crude supply became more expensive for the private Chinese refiners, concentrated in the Shandong province, and dragged refining margins to a loss. The independent refiners, commonly known as teapots, have slashed run rates, to just 43.64% of processing capacity as of this week, according to data from industry consultancy Mysteel Oilchem reported byBloomberg. This is the lowest average crude processing rate since the start of the Covid pandemic in March 2020.The Biden Administration’s farewell sanctions on Russian oil trade and shadow fleet crippled supply of Russia’s ESPO crude shipped from the port of Far Eastern Russian port of Kozmino. ESPO has been a favorite with the Chinese refiners, but the scores of oil tankers sanctioned by the U.S. slashed the availability of non-sanctioned tankers to ship Russian crude to China.As Russia’s top buyers in Asia – China and India – prefer to steer clear of sanctioned tankers and entities involved in the trade, the freight rates for shipping Russian crude to its biggest buyers have soared.This has made refining crude at many private refineries in China’s Shandong province unprofitable, and many plants slashed run rates.

Iraq invites global oil firms for talks -Iraq's Ministry of Oil said on Saturday it had invited global foreign companies operating under the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) umbrella, along with firms contracted by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), to a meeting in Baghdad on March 4. The talks are set to address issues related to existing contracts and seek agreements that align with international best practices for oilfield development while safeguarding national interests, the ministry said in a statement. The Kurdistan Region's Ministry of Natural Resources is also expected to attend the discussions. Eight international oil firms operating in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region said they would not resume oil exports through Turkey's Ceyhan on Friday despite an announcement from Baghdad that the restart was imminent. The government said on Friday it would announce a resumption in the coming hours, with an initial amount of 185,000 bpd exported through state oil marketer SOMO and that quantity gradually increasing. APIKUR, which represents 60% of production from the region, said later no formal contact had been made for clarity on commercial agreements and guarantees of payment for past and future exports.

Kazakhstan says it has tasked oil majors to cut output to meet OPEC+ quotas - Kazakhstan is producing oil above its OPEC+ quotas and has tasked oil majors to cut production, Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev said on Friday. Kazakhstan is currently producing at a record high, and well above its target. OPEC+ - consisting of OPEC countries and allies including Russia and Kazakhstan - decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022. It said its decision took into account healthy market fundamentals and a positive market outlook, without mentioning Kazakhstan.

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices to Asia for first time in three months -- Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, on Friday lowered crude oil prices for Asian buyers in April for the first time in three months, in line with market expectations and after OPEC+ agreed to gradually increase supply in the same month. State oil company Saudi Aramco lowered the April official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude by 40 cents to $3.50 a barrel above the average of Oman and Dubai prices, a pricing document from the producer showed. In the previous month Arab Light's OSP hit its highest in more than a year at $3.90 above the Oman and Dubai average after harsher U.S. sanctions on Russian oil disrupted global trade and caused oil prices and freight rates to spike. The company also lowered April prices for other grades it sells to Asia. The cut in Arab Light price for Asia was in line with the 20 to 65 cents cut forecast in a Reuters poll. OPEC+, which pumps about half the world's oil, decided this week to proceed with a planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the group's first since 2022. Meanwhile, Russian and Iranian oil supply to top importer China is rebounding in March as non-sanctioned tankers are drawn by lucrative payoffs, easing supply concerns.

OPEC February oil output rises 170,000 barrels per day, survey finds - The following table shows crude oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in millions of barrels per day in February and January, according to a Reuters survey published on Wednesday. OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, agreed in December to defer the start of output rises by three months until April and extend the full unwinding of cuts until the end of 2026 due to weak demand and booming production outside the group. The figures in the first and second columns are in millions of barrels per day. Totals are rounded. January's figure for Libya was revised higher.

OPEC+ to increase oil production after long delay --A group of oil-producing countries known as OPEC+ will proceed with a long-delayed hike in oil production.Eight countries that have repeatedly delayed production increases will now move forward with them. Those countries are: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. They cited “healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook,” which could mean they expect oil prices to rise in the near future.The production increases will begin in April, though the countries noted they could change their minds in response to “evolving conditions.”The increase in oil output comes as President Trump has called on OPEC countries to “cut the price of oil.”The Trump administration has repeatedly engaged with Saudi Arabia. The president’s call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was his first foreign leader call after being sworn in.

Oil rises on demand optimism, but Ukraine uncertainty looms -- Oil rose on Monday as upbeat manufacturing data from China, the world’s biggest crude importer, led to renewed optimism for fuel demand, though uncertainty about a Ukraine peace deal and global economic growth from potential US tariffs loomed. Brent crude climbed 36c, or 0.5%, to $73.17 a barrel by 4.39am GMT while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $70.10 a barrel, up 34c, or 0.5%. Prices rose after official data on Saturday that showed that China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in February as new orders and higher purchase volumes led to a solid rise in production. Investors are eyeing China’s annual parliamentary meeting, which starts March 5, for further measures to support its battered economy. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said one of the possible drivers for rising prices was that “the China NBS manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers index] moved back into expansionary territory over the weekend”. However, he cautioned that the country’s economic outlook may not be inspiring, with another round of tariffs on exports to the US set to start on March 4. Analysts from Goldman Sachs were somewhat more positive about the data, saying in a note it suggests stable to slightly better economic activity in China in early 2025, though the imposition of the extra 10% US tariff may prompt retaliatory measures. Last month, Brent and WTI posted their first monthly declines in three months as the threat of tariffs from the US and its trade partners shook investors’ confidence in global economic growth this year and reduced their appetite for riskier assets. Overall sentiment improved after a summit on Sunday where European leaders offered a strong show of support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and promised to do more to help his nation, just two days after US President Donald Trump clashed with him, and Zelensky cut short a visit to Washington. Zelensky said on Sunday that he believed he could salvage his relationship with Trump but that talks needed to continue behind closed doors. He added that he remained ready to sign a minerals deal with the US, and he believed the US would be ready as well. “It’s unclear where the US now stands, making a peace deal seem more distant than a week ago,” “This is altering energy-market hopes for an easing of sanctions.” In addition, ongoing attacks at Russian refineries have raised concerns about its refined products exports, with another plant in the Russian city of Ufa reportedly on fire. For 2025, analysts are holding their oil price forecasts largely steady, with Brent averaging at $74.63 a barrel, as they expect any impact from further US sanctions to be balanced by ample supply and a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, a Reuters poll showed. Though the US is urging Iraq to resume exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, eight international oil firms operating there said on Friday they would not restart shipments through Turkey’s port of Ceyhan due to a lack of clarity on commercial agreements and guarantees of payment for past and future exports.

Diminished Expectations for a Quick Agreement to End the Russia-Ukraine War -The oil market on Monday posted an outside trading day as the market weighed some supportive economic news from China and the diminished expectations for a quick agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war against the expectations that OPEC+ will proceed with its oil output increase starting in April. The crude market retraced some of Friday’s losses and posted a high of $70.60 in overnight trading amid the news that China’s manufacturing activity in February increased at the fastest rate in three months. The market was also supported as the market awaits the outcome of efforts to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. The market later erased its gains and sold off to $69.15 by mid-morning as it held support at Friday’s low of $69.14. The market, however, breached its support and sold off sharply to a low of $67.89 on some headlines stating that OPEC+ has decided to proceed with a planned April output increase. The April WTI contract settled down $1.39 at $68.37 and the May Brent contract settled down $1.19 at $71.62. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 5.46 cents at $2.2604 and the RB market settling down 3.45 cents at $2.1878. Sources stated that OPEC+ has decided to proceed with a planned April oil output increase. The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of cuts begins in April with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd.U.S. President Donald Trump said there was no chance for Mexico or Canada to avert the 25% tariffs that he promised to impose starting Tuesday. Earlier, U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, said President Donald Trump was still weighing pending tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico before the midnight deadline and will announce his decision on Tuesday. He said the two neighboring countries had done a good job on tightening their borders with the United States but had to do more to stop the flow of the drug fentanyl. A U.S. official said the United States is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as President Donald Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine. The White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for U.S. officials to discuss with Russian representatives in the coming days as part of the administration’s broad talks with Russia on improving diplomatic and economic relations. According to the sources the sanctions offices are now drawing up a proposal for lifting sanctions on select entities and individuals, including some Russian oligarchs.On Sunday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said European leaders had agreed to draw up a Ukraine peace plan to present to the United States. At a summit in London just two days after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy clashed with U.S. President Donald Trump and cut short a visit to Washington, European leaders offered a strong show of support to the Ukrainian president and promised to do more to help his nation.The startup of oil production from Equinor’s Arctic Johan Castberg field has been delayed again due to bad weather. Equinor had previously said it planned to start the field by the end of February, after postponing its startup from the end of 2024.

Oil prices fall 2% to 12-week low with OPEC+ set to increase output (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 2% to a 12-week low on Monday on reports OPEC+ will proceed with a planned oil output increase in April and worries U.S. tariffs could hurt global economic growth and oil demand.Brent futures fell $1.19, or 1.6%, to settle at $71.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.39, or 2.0%, to settle at $68.37.Those were the lowest closes for Brent since December 6 and WTI since December 9. "Crude oil is under siege on multiple fronts and is vulnerable to the latest bearish headline or economic data," Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a report, pointing to the OPEC+ decision, U.S. manufacturing data, Ukraine peace talks and U.S. tariffs.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, decided to proceed with a planned April oil output increase, three sources from the producer group told Reuters on Monday.OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), equal to about 5.7% of global supply, agreed in a series of steps since 2022 to support the market.Britain said several proposals had been made for a truce in fighting between Ukraine and Russia, after France floated a plan for a one-month pause leading to peace talks, but U.S. President Donald Trump suggested his patience was running out.The U.S., meanwhile, is drawing up a plan to potentially give Russia sanctions relief as Trump seeks to restore ties with Moscow and stop the war in Ukraine.Russia is the third-biggest oil producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and is a member of OPEC+.On the trade front, Trump will decide on Monday what levels of tariffs the U.S. will impose early on Tuesday on Canada and Mexico amid last-minute negotiations over border security and efforts to halt the inflow of fentanyl opioids.Trump has vowed to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, with 10% on Canadian energy products.Canada's oilfield drilling and services sector was showing signs of slowing ahead of threatened tariffs.Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country was ready for whatever decision Washington reached.In response to U.S. tariffs, China, the second-biggest economy after the U.S., said it was preparing countermeasures to tariffs targeting U.S. agriculture.U.S. manufacturing was steady in February, but a measure of prices at the factory gate jumped to nearly a three-year high and it took longer for materials to be delivered, suggesting that tariffs on imports could soon undercut production.Analysts have said Trump's planned tariffs have also raised inflation worries at the U.S. Federal Reserve. This could lead the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, which could slow economic growth and energy demand.Worries about the impact of possible slowing economic growth on oil demand pressured WTI prices, which have declined by around 10% over the past six weeks.That prompted speculators last week to cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange to their lowest level since hitting a record low in December 2023. In other U.S. energy markets, the start of the April contract as the new front month cut diesel futures down to a nine-week low toward the end of winter heating season. Gasoline futures soared to a six-month high ahead of the summer driving season.

Oil Prices Fall as OPEC+ Increases Production and Trade Tensions Escalate -- Oil prices continued their decline on Tuesday following reports that OPEC+ plans to stick to its production increase plan for April, while markets brace for the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as retaliatory tariffs from Beijing against Washington. Brent crude futures dropped by 57 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.05 per barrel by 06:50 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.98. Darren Lim, a commodities strategist at Phillip Nova, stated, “The current bearish trend in oil prices is mainly driven by OPEC+’s decision to increase production and U.S. tariffs.” He added that the geopolitical developments related to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are further complicating the situation. U.S. President Donald Trump announced the halt of all military aid to Ukraine after his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, decided to move forward with the planned oil production increase in April by 138,000 barrels per day, the first increase of its kind since 2022. Lim noted, “Although this decision aims to gradually unwind previous production cuts, it has raised concerns about a potential market oversupply.” U.S. tariffs came into effect on Tuesday, with Trump imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff on Canadian energy, while the tariffs on Chinese imports rose to 20% from 10%. Analysts expect these tariffs to impact economic activity and fuel demand, putting pressure on oil prices. Analysts at BMI stated in a note: “Market participants are struggling to estimate the impact of the slew of energy-related policy announcements made by the Trump administration this month,” adding, “Negative factors, particularly the U.S. tariff measures, are dominating the market right now.” In response, China announced an increase of 10% to 15% on tariffs imposed on a range of U.S. agricultural and food products, along with placing 25 U.S. companies under export and investment restrictions. Another factor affecting oil prices is Trump’s decision to halt military aid to Ukraine, which the market interpreted as a sign of a potential de-escalation in the conflict, possibly leading to the easing of sanctions on Russia and the return of more oil supplies to the market. Reuters reported that the White House has asked the State and Treasury Departments to prepare a list of sanctions that could be eased for discussion with Moscow. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, said, “The perfect storm for crude oil has intensified,” noting that “reports of the cessation of U.S. military aid to Ukraine are seen as paving the way for easing sanctions on Russian oil.” He added, “This is happening at the same time that U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are coming into effect, raising fears of a trade war. Crude oil is not getting any relief right now.” However, analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out in a note on Monday that Russian oil flows are more constrained by OPEC+ production targets than sanctions, warning that easing restrictions may not lead to a significant increase in supply. The bank also noted that higher-than-expected supply and weaker demand due to sluggish U.S. economic activity and escalating tariffs present downside risks to oil price forecasts.

OPEC+ to Proceed with Planned Output Increase in April - The oil market on Tuesday extended its Monday’s sharp losses in light of the OPEC+ decision to proceed with its planned output increase of 138,000 bpd in April and as U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China came into effect. The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy, while tariffs on goods from China were increased by 10% to 20%, which is expected to weigh on economic activity and demand for energy. Further weigh on market sentiment was U.S. President Trump’s decision to halt military aid to Ukraine, as the growing distance between the U.S. and Ukraine potentially increasing the possibility of sanctions relief for Russia. On Monday, the White House asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for U.S. officials to discuss during talks with Russia. The oil market opened at its high of $68.46 and continued on its downward trend, breaching the lower limit of a downward trend channel at $67.02. The market extended its losses to $1.60 as it posted a low of $66.77 by mid-morning. The crude market later bounced off its low and traded back towards its high ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled down 11 cents at $68.26 and the May Brent contract settled down 58 cents at $71.04. The April WTI contract later traded to a high of $68.56 in the post settlement period. The product markets ended in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 2.68 cents at $2.2872 and the RB market settling up 64 points at $2.1942. U.S. President Donald Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. The tariff actions took effect at midnight, hours after Trump declared that all three countries had failed to do enough to stem the flow of the deadly fentanyl opioid and its precursor chemicals into the United States. China responded immediately, announcing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain U.S. imports starting March 10th and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. entities. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would respond with immediate 25% tariffs on C$30 billion or $20.7 billion worth of U.S. imports and another C$125 billion or $86.2 billion if Trump’s tariffs were still in place in 21 days. Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, said there was no justification for U.S. President Donald Trump’s implemented 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and said her government would respond with tariff and non-tariff measures. According to traders and analysts, U.S. retail gasoline prices are set to increase in the coming weeks as new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration raise the cost of energy imports. Fuel distributor TACenergy said the tariffs have triggered an increase in wholesale gasoline prices in the U.S. Northeast, a region that relies heavily on Canadian shipments of gasoline, heating oil and diesel. Retail fuel experts said the increase will start filtering through to New England’s pumps soon and could add 20 to 40 cents a gallon. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration said it is ending a license that it had granted to Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil, after the U.S. accused Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. According to an update of the license, published by the U.S. Treasury Department, Chevron will have through April 3rd to wind down exports from Venezuela.

Brent settles down, hit 6-month low on OPEC+ output rise, tariffs, Ukraine news (Reuters) - Oil prices swooned on Tuesday and settled close to to multi-month lows after reports of OPEC+ plans to proceed with output increases in April and news of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China as well as Beijing's retaliatory tariffs. Brent futures settled 58 cents lower, or 0.8%, at $71.04 a barrel. The session low was $69.75 a barrel, its lowest since September. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 11 cents a barrel, or 0.2%, at $68.26. The benchmark previously dropped to $66.77 a barrel, the lowest since November. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to proceed with a planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, its first since 2022. The move took the market by surprise, The change in OPEC strategy looks like they are prioritising politics over price. Those politics are likely connected with the wheeling and dealing of Donald Trump," Schieldrop said, referring to the U.S. president's calls for lower oil prices. U.S. tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT), with 10% tariffs on Canadian energy, while tariffs on imports of Chinese goods were increased to 20% from 10%. Analysts expect the tariffs to curb economic activity and demand for energy, weighing on oil prices. China swiftly retaliated, announcing 10-15% increases on import levies covering a range of American agricultural and food products while also placing 25 U.S. companies under export and investment restrictions. Prices steadied later in the session. Further, some geopolitical tension moderated after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he regretted last week's extraordinary Oval Office clash with Donald Trump. Sources told Reuters the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal would be signed soon. On Monday, Trump paused all U.S. military aid to Ukraine. The move followed a Reuters report that the White House has asked the State and Treasury departments to draft a list of sanctions that could be eased for U.S. officials to discuss during talks with Moscow. Lifting sanctions could bring more Russian oil to market. But on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts said Russia's oil flows were constrained more by its OPEC+ production target than sanctions. The bank also said higher-than-expected crude supply and a demand squeeze from softer U.S. economic activity and tariff escalation posed downside risks to oil price forecasts. Chinese demand is also down, with a period of refinery maintenance looming, said Josh Callaghan, head of crude derivatives at Arrow Energy Markets. The Trump administration said on Tuesday it was ending a license that the U.S. has granted to U.S. oil producer Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil, after Washington accused President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. Market participants now await government data on U.S. crude stockpiles, due on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels in the week ended February 28, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Middle East Oil Prices Slide Amid OPEC+ Supply Surge - Oil prices in the Middle East have experienced a significant decline, with the cost of Oman crude on the Gulf Mercantile Exchange falling belowbrent crude for the first time since late 2024. This shift marks the end of the Middle Eastern grade's longest run of premiums over the global benchmark since 2023. The downturn is largely attributed to the anticipated increase in oil supplies from OPEC+ nations, prompting a selloff in the region's crudes. The Organization of the petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have confirmed plans to proceed with a gradual increase in oil production starting April 2025. This decision involves unwinding the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts that were implemented to stabilize the market. The phased approach will see an average monthly rise of 137,000 bpd, extending until September 2026. Notably, the United Arab Emirates will receive a 300,000 bpd increase in its production target over this period. This strategic move by OPEC+ reflects a response to healthier market fundamentals and a positive outlook for global oil demand. However, the group has emphasized flexibility, stating that the planned production increases may be paused or reversed if market conditions warrant such adjustments. This adaptability aims to maintain oil market stability amid evolving economic landscapes.The announcement has exerted downward pressure on global oil prices. Brent crude futures fell by 1.6%, settling at $71.62 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude dropped by 2.0%, closing at $68.37 per barrel. These figures represent the lowest closing prices for Brent and WTI since early December 2024.Market analysts attribute the price decline to multiple factors beyond the anticipated OPEC+ supply boost. President Donald Trump's recent announcement of imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as increasing duties on Chinese goods, has raised concerns about potential dampening effects on energy demand. Additionally, the U.S. decision to pause military aid to Ukraine and speculation about easing sanctions on Russia have contributed to market volatility and uncertainty.The increase in oil production is expected to come from several OPEC members and their allies, adding approximately 2.2 million barrels over the next 18 months. Analysts suggest that this decision could lead to oversupply issues, further pressuring prices if demand does not keep pace. This situation has negatively impacted major oil company stocks, with significant declines observed in Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total Energies.The shifting dynamics in the oil market underscore a potential transition of influence from traditional producers like OPEC to other global players. The rise of electric vehicles, advancements in fuel efficiency, and reduced reliance on oil for power and heating have contributed to weaker demand, challenging the market power of oil-producing nations.

Brent Crude Crashes To 2021 Lows After Surprise US Inventory Build - Oil prices extended their losses overnight to the lowest in almost six months as traders wrestle with conflicting signals on the longevity and effects of US tariffs on the country’s two largest external crude suppliers. A mixed bag from API last night did not help but all eyes on the official data this morning for any signs of life. API:

• Crude -1.5mm
• Cushing +1.6mm
• Gasoline -1.2mm
• Distillates +1.1mm

DOE

• Crude +3.614mm
• Cushing +1.124mm
• Gasoline -1.433mm
• Distillates -1.318mm

US crude inventories rose for the 5th week in the last 6, with stocks at the crucial Cushing Hub rising for the 4th straight week. On the product side, both gasoline and distillates saw drawdowns... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. For the third week in a row, the Trump administration did not add to the SPR...US crude production remained near record higher as Trump's 'drill baby drill' plan prompted a jump in the rig count...WTI traded back near 6-month lows on the surprise crude build...

The Oil Market Trended Lower for a Fourth Consecutive Session - The oil market continued to trend lower for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday after the EIA weekly petroleum stocks report showed a larger than expected build in crude stocks, adding to further downward pressure following OPEC+ decision to proceed with its planned output increase in April and the U.S. tariffs imposed in Canada, Mexico and China. The market posted a high of $68.10 in overnight trading and continued on its downward trend, breaching its previous low of $66.77. It extended its losses to over $3.00 as it sold off to a $65.22. The market was further pressured by the larger than expected build in crude stocks of over 3.6 million barrels on the week. The crude market, however, bounced off its low and pared some of its sharp losses amid the news that the Trump administration was considering granting some relief from tariffs on certain industries. He said the relief under consideration would eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. The White House later confirmed that President Donald Trump agreed to delay tariffs for one month on some vehicles built in North America. The market traded back above the $66.00 level ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled down $1.95 at $66.31 and the May Brent contract settled down $1.74 at $69.30. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 4.64 cents at $2.2408 and the RB market settling down 5.72 cents at $2.1370. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks increased more than expected in the week ending February 28^th. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels. Refinery crude runs fell by 346,000 bpd and utilization rates fell 0.6% to 85.9% of total capacity. U.S. East Coast refinery utilization rates fell to their lowest level since July 2020, falling sharply to 54.8% of capacity from 82.5% in the prior week. Gasoline stocks fell more than expected by 1.4 million barrels on the week to 246.8 million barrels. U.S. Midwest gasoline stocks increased by 200,000 barrels to 60.4 million barrels, the highest level since February 2024.On Tuesday, in an address to Congress, U.S. President Donald Trump said he received a letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in which the Ukrainian leader expressed willingness to come to the negotiating table over the Russia-Ukraine war. He said Ukraine was ready to sign a minerals deal with the United States. President Trump also said he had been in “serious discussions with Russia” and had “received strong signals that they are ready for peace”. Meanwhile, four sources said that the Trump administration and Ukraine plan to sign a minerals deal in return for military aid, which President Trump has paused.According to Reuters, OPEC oil output increased in February as Iranian exports held strong, despite renewed U.S. attempts to cut the flows and Nigeria increased output above its target within the wider OPEC+ group. The survey showed that OPEC produced 26.74 million bpd in February, up 170,000 bpd from January’s revised total, with Iran and Nigeria posting the largest gains of 80,000 bpd to 3.3 million bpd and 50,000 bpd to 1.57 million bpd, respectively. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s oil output fell by 20,000 bpd on the month to 8.93 million bpd and Iraq’s output increased by 40,000 bpd to 3.98 million bpd.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.2 million bpd of capacity in the week ending March 7^th, cutting available refining capacity by 86,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 985,000 bpd in the week ending March 14^th.

Oil settles down more than 2% after US crude stocks build, OPEC+ hike, US tariffs (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday after U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected build, adding a further headwind as investors worried about OPEC+ plans to increase output in April and U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Brent futures settled down $1.74, or 2.45% to $69.30 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down $1.95, or 2.86%, to $66.31 a barrel. Prices pared some losses after hitting multi-year lows earlier in the session - Brent sank to $68.33, its lowest since December 2021, and U.S. crude futures touched $65.22, its lowest since May 2023. They recovered slightly after the U.S. Commerce Department chief, Howard Lutnick, said Trump would make the final decision on whether to grant any relief on tariffs to certain industries, on Bloomberg TV. While Lutnick said the 25% tariff levied on Canada and Mexico would remain, the relief under consideration would eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, which comply with the rules of origin under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a source familiar with the discussions said. Pulling prices down, U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week amid seasonal refinery maintenance, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell due to a hike in exports, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels in the week, the EIA said, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 341,000-barrel rise. Brent fell more than $2 after the data was released. "The imposition of tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico by the U.S. sparked swift reprisals from each nation that increased concerns over a slowdown in economic growth and the consequent impact on energy demand," Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said. Canada and China retaliated immediately against Trump's tariffs on Tuesday, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country would respond, without giving details. JP Morgan analysts said a 100-basis-point slowdown in the U.S. GDP growth rate could potentially reduce global oil demand growth by 180,000 bpd, analysts said in a note. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022, pressuring crude prices. The group will make a small increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, the first step in planned monthly increases to unwind its nearly 6 million bpd of cuts, equal to almost 6% of global demand. "There is a bit of a concern in the market that the OPEC+ decision is the start of a series of more monthly supply additions, but the statement from OPEC+ reiterates an approach in bringing back barrels only if the market can absorb them," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Analysts at Morgan Stanley Research said it was possible OPEC+ would deliver only a few monthly increases, rather than fully unwind the cuts. The Trump administration also said on Tuesday it was ending a license that Washington granted to U.S. oil producer Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil. The decision puts 200,000 bpd of supply at risk, ING commodities strategists wrote in a note on Wednesday. Meanwhile, JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand last month averaged 103.6 million bpd, marking a year-over-year increase of 1.6 million bpd, but falling short of their projected 1.8 million bpd rise for the month.

Brent Oil Prices Slide Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns -- Sentiment remains negative in the oil market, with ICE Brent falling close to 2.5% yesterday. It settled below US$70/bbl after briefly trading to its lowest level in three years. Rising OPEC supply and prospects for further increases, combined with ever-present tariff uncertainty, pushed the market lower. Recent price weakness makes it difficult for US producers to “drill, baby, drill.” While prompt WTI is trading below $67/bbl, forward values are even weaker. The calendar 2026 price is trading around $63/bbl, reducing incentives for producers to increase drilling activity. If anything, we’re likely to see a bigger pullback in activity. Producers need, on average, a $64/bbl price level to drill a new well profitably, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey. Weekly US inventory data was also fairly bearish. Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.61m barrels over the last week. That’s a marked increase from the 1.5m-barrel decline the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the previous day. Also, crude oil stocks at Cushing rose by 1.12m barrels. This leaves stocks at the WTI delivery hub at the highest level since November. Lower refinery rates contributed to the build, with utilisation rates falling by 0.6pp, and crude inputs dropping by 346k b/d week on week. Among refined products, gasoline and distillate inventories fell by 1.43m barrels and 1.32m barrels, respectively. European natural gas prices traded in a volatile manner yesterday. Ultimately, prices closed lower with TTF settling 4.5% lower on the day. Positioning data shows that investment funds reduced their position in TTF by 56.5TWh to a net long of 174.8TWh, the smallest since July. It hardly helped that the European Commission delayed the release of a plan to phase out Russian fossil fuels. Some read this as a sign that a partial resumption in Russian pipeline gas is possible under a peace deal. In addition, the EU will allow some flexibility in storage targets, although member states should still aim to have storage 90% full by 1 November. Comex copper futures surged more than 5% yesterday after US President Donald Trump proposed a 25% tariff on copper imports. The move in COMEX copper also pushed LME copper prices higher. The COMEX/LME arb widened back towards $1,000/t on the back of the news. Last week, Trump instructed the US Commerce Department to mull potential copper import tariffs. The market anticipated a relatively long investigation before tariffs are implemented. The latest indications are that the copper tariff could be enforced sooner. China’s National Development and Reform Commission pledged to enforce production cuts in the country’s steel and oil industry. The aim would be to improve industry profitability and reduce pollution. China’s steel production remains above 1bn tonnes despite Beijing’s efforts to reduce capacity. Industry estimates suggest that cuts of around 50mt could be implemented.

Oil Prices Rise After Hitting Lowest Level in Years --Oil prices rose on Thursday after a heavy sell-off pushed the market to its lowest level in years. However, uncertainty over tariffs and expectations of increased supplies limited the gains. Brent crude futures rose by 50 cents, or 0.72%, to $69.80 per barrel by 07:16 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased by 48 cents, or 0.72%, to $66.79 per barrel. Brent crude had dropped by 6.5% over the previous four sessions, reaching its lowest level since December 2021 on Wednesday. WTI crude also fell by 5.8% during the same period, marking its lowest level since May 2023. "The sharp drop in oil prices below the $70.00 mark could lead to a short-term break in today’s session, as technical conditions try to stabilize from the oversold region," said Yiap John Rong, a market strategist at IG trading platform. However, he added, "The recovery momentum remains fragile, as the unfavorable supply and demand dynamics continue to weigh on bullish sentiment." This decline followed the United States' imposition of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, including energy imports, coupled with a decision by major producers to raise production quotas for the first time since 2022. But the losses were mitigated after the U.S. announced it would exempt car companies from the 25% tariffs, increasing optimism that the impact of the trade dispute could be limited. Additionally, a source familiar with the discussions stated that U.S. President Donald Trump might cancel the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, which are in compliance with existing trade agreements. Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ Bank, stated in a note on Thursday: "Trump’s trade actions threaten to reduce global energy demand and disrupt trade flows in the global oil market. This has been exacerbated by rising U.S. inventories." Market sentiment remains negative due to the combined impact of the tariffs and the decision by the OPEC+ alliance, which includes OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to increase production. U.S. crude oil inventories, the world’s largest consumer of oil, rose more than expected last week amid seasonal refinery maintenance, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell due to higher exports, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Crude inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters survey, which had forecasted a rise of only 341,000 barrels. There are also other signs of weak U.S. oil demand, as U.S. imports of seaborne crude oil fell to their lowest level in four years in February, due to a drop in Canadian shipments to the East Coast, according to vessel-tracking data. Tariffs are still in place on Mexican crude imports to the U.S., which is a smaller oil flow compared to Canadian imports, but it remains a key source for U.S. refineries on the Gulf Coast.

Oil steadies in choppy trading on tariff uncertainty, OPEC+ hike plans (Reuters) - Oil settled largely unchanged in choppy trade on Thursday, with global benchmark Brent closing below $70 a barrel under pressure from tariffs between the U.S., Canada, and China, and plans by OPEC+ to raise output. Brent futures settled up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $69.46 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 5 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $66.36. On Wednesday, Brent hit $68.33, its weakest since December 2021, after a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories further pressured oil after OPEC+'s hike in output quotas for the first time since 2022 and new U.S. tariffs enacted on Tuesday. "The OPEC news of adding barrels next month, along with a Russian/Ukraine peace deal now looking more promising and a flip/flop of tariffs is keeping crude in a volatile trade," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Russia said it will seek a peace deal, opens new tab in Ukraine that safeguards its own long-term security and will not retreat from the gains it has made in the conflict. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump exempted goods from Canada and Mexico under a North American trade pact for a month from the 25% tariffs that he imposed this week, the latest twist in fast-shifting trade policy that has whipsawed financial markets and business leaders. A source familiar with the discussions said that Trump could eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, that comply with existing trade agreements. Chinese officials have flagged that more stimulus is possible if economic growth slows, seeking to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the U.S. Helping boost prices, meanwhile, the U.S. will exert a campaign of maximum pressure of sanctions on Iran to collapse its oil exports and put pressure on its currency, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. The U.S. is reviewing all existing sanctions waivers that provide Iran any degree of economic relief and urging the Iraqi government to eliminate its dependence on Iranian sources of energy as soon as possible, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said. Downside risks on demand will likely be greater than supply-side risks at this point with the additional oil coming from OPEC, said Scott Shelton, energy analyst at TP ICAP. "Spare capacity can offset supply losses, but there is no way to fix demand, which should flounder under the weight of sanctions and underperform," Shelton added. The OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022. One OPEC+ delegate, commenting on the market's reaction to Monday's decision, said the price drop looked overdone and hoped that the market was now on a "gradual recovery."

Oil Prices Rise Amid Supply Concerns And US Policy Uncertainty -- Oil prices rebounded but remained below $70 per barrel due to concerns over supply disruptions caused by sanctions on Iran and Russia. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs and OPEC+ production plans added pressure on the market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced strict sanctions on Russian and Iranian energy sectors, emphasizing the US government’s intent to use sanctions as a geopolitical tool. As of 9:36 AM local time, Brent crude gained 0.27%, trading at $69.39 per barrel, while WTI crude increased 0.24% to $66.15 per barrel. The price rise followed statements from Bessent, who criticized previous weak sanctions on Russian energy, arguing that they contributed to prolonging the ongoing war. He stated that the US government would maintain and even strengthen sanctions to apply maximum economic pressure on adversaries. Last month, the White House announced a new ‘maximum pressure’ campaign targeting Iran’s entire oil supply chain and drone manufacturing industry. “We are going to shut down Iran’s oil sector and its ability to manufacture drones,” Bessent stated. These developments have heightened concerns about global oil supply and contributed to rising prices. At the same time, the US government’s trade policies are creating additional economic uncertainty. The recent 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect on March 4, while tariffs on Chinese goods doubled from 10% to 20%. US President Donald Trump signed an exemption for goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), delaying tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports until April 2. However, trade experts warn that these tariffs could disrupt global commerce, slow economic growth, and reduce oil demand.

Oil up, but off highs as Trump warns new Russia sanctions possible (Reuters) - Oil prices gained on Friday but retreated from session highs after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine.Brent crude futures settled at $70.36 a barrel, up 90 cents, or 1.3%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $67.04, up 68 cents, or 1.02%.Trump said in a post on Truth Social that he was "strongly considering" sanctions on Russian banks and tariffs on Russian products because its armed forces continue attacks in Ukraine.In early trade, Brent jumped as high as $71.40, while WTI hit $68.22 after Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the OPEC+ producer group will go ahead with its April increase but may then consider other steps, including reducing production. . Flynn said oil's moves on OPEC+ and possible Russia sanctions swept aside other news, including delays in Israel and Hamas seeking a permanent cease-fire in Gaza. For the week, Brent was down 3.8%, its biggest weekly decline since the week of November 11. WTI finished down 3.9%, its biggest weekly drop since the week of January 21. Late in Friday's session, prices stabilized following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Powell said the Federal Reserve Board was watching how new policies from the Trump administration, especially on trade, were affecting the economy. Kilduff said rapid changes in implementing policy, plus developments that could increase geopolitical risk, were being felt by traders. Brent prices fell to their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories rose and OPEC+ announced its decision to increase output quotas.OPEC+ had said it intended to proceed with a planned April output increase, adding 138,000 barrels per day to the market.In other supply news, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the U.S. aims to reduce Iranian crude exports to a trickle.Trump's administration is considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter, continuing efforts to drive down Iranian oil exports to zero.Global markets have been whipsawed by fluctuating trade policy in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer.On Thursday Trump suspended the 25% tariffs he had imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2, though steel and aluminum tariffs would still take effect on March 12. In the U.S., job growth picked up in February and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, but growing uncertainty over trade policy and deep federal government spending cuts could erode the labor market's resilience in the months ahead.

Oil refinery in Russia's Ufa on fire -- Several Russian Telegram channels, including the SHOT news channel, reported the fire followed an explosion at the refinery.

Fire Engulfs Russian Oil Refinery 900 Miles From Ukraine After Drones Heard – Newsweek -- A fire erupted at one of Russia's largest oil refineries in the city of Ufa in Bashkortostan, approximately 900 miles from the Ukrainian border, following a reported drone attack. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment by email. Ukraine has primarily used drones to target Russian sites that support the country's war efforts. These include airfields, military plants, ammunition depots, warehouses, and oil hubs and refineries, which have boost Russia's economy and supplied fuel to President Vladimir Putin's military since the conflict began on February 24, 2022. Videos circulating on social media showed a huge fire engulf the Bashneft-owned refinery, which is situated about 932 miles east of the Ukrainian border, and processes up to 168,000 barrels per day, according to Reuters. The Bashkortostan Ministry of Emergency Situations said the fire erupted "in the area of the incinerator." "There is no threat to residents of nearby areas. A laboratory is operating on site to monitor the air quality. There were no reports of casualties," the region's emergency ministry said in a statement on social-media platform Telegram. The ministry said technical issues caused the fire, but prominent Russian Telegram channels with links to local security services said that residents reported hearing drones and explosion sounds in the city before the fire broke out. Newsweek couldn't independently verify the reports of a drone attack.

Arab League Backs Egypt's Gaza Reconstruction Plan, Israel and US Reject It - The Arab League issued a statement following a summit in Cairo on Tuesday backing an Egyptian-proposed $53 billion reconstruction plan for Gaza, an idea quickly rejected by Israel and the US.The Egyptian proposal was a response to President Trump’s calls for the US to “take over” Gaza, a plan that would involve an ethnic cleansing campaign to forcibly displace Palestinians. The Arab statement rejected “any form of Palestinian displacement, whether within or beyond their land, under any pretext or justification.”A major talking point from the Trump administration is that Palestinians can no longer live in Gaza due to the massive destruction caused by the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign, but the Egyptian proposal would keep Palestinians in the territory during reconstruction.The first phase of the five-year reconstruction plan would involve establishing temporary housing and initial repairs of partially damaged homes that aren’t totally destroyed. A temporary committee led by the Palestinian Authority (PA) would oversee the first six months of reconstruction, and then the PA would take over the management of the Strip.Hamas, which has said it does not need to rule over a post-war Gaza, welcomed the plan. “We welcome the Gaza reconstruction plan adopted in the summit’s final statement and call for ensuring all necessary resources for its success,” the group said.Hamas also expressed support for “the formation of the Community Support Committee to oversee relief efforts, reconstruction and governance in Gaza,” referring to the temporary committee.In its statement rejecting the proposal, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said the Arab League’s statement “fails to address the realities of the situation following October 7th, 2023, remaining rooted in outdated perspectives.”The Israeli Foreign Ministry complained that the Arab statement didn’t condemn Hamas’s October 7 attack and that it “relies” on the PA and the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA. The ministry called for President Trump’s plan to be implemented instead. “Now, with President Trump’s idea, there is an opportunity for the Gazans to have free choice based on their free will. This should be encouraged! Instead, Arab states have rejected this opportunity, without giving it a fair chance, and continue to level baseless accusations against Israel,” the ministry said.White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes also rejected the Arab League statement, saying the plan doesn’t “address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance.”Hughes added that President Trump “stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas.”

US Rejects Arab League's $53BN Alternative Gaza Reconstruction Plan The United States and Israel have quickly rejected a new Gaza peace and reconstruction plan proposed by the Arab League under Egypt's leadership, which was unveiled Tuesday.A counterproposal to Trump's provocative Gaza 'takeover' plan which advocates the removal of the Palestinian population to neighboring Arab states, the Egyptian plan would of course allow its roughly two million inhabitants to remain.The $53 billion plan approved by the Arab League aims to rebuild the destroyed Gaza Strip by 2030, while setting up hundreds of thousands of temporary housing units so that Palestinians won't have to leave. Arab leaders have blasted Trump's prior proposals as but greenlighting an Israeli ethnic cleansing campaign, and Jordan and Egypt in particular have vehemently rejected the possibility of resettling Palestinians in their territories.It calls on UN Security Council to deploy an international peacekeeping force in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, which would establish security while reconstruction takes place - and foresees the recycling of rubble to expand Gaza's coastline and even "sustainable, green and walkable" housing and urban areas, also utilizing renewable energy.Further, according to the Associated Press, "The communique said Egypt will host an international conference in cooperation with the United Nations for Gaza’s reconstruction, and a World Bank-overseen trust fund will be established to receive pledges to implement the early recovery and reconstruction plan."Hamas has welcomed the plan, despite that it says the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA) would eventually take over governance and management of the Gaza Strip."We welcome the Gaza reconstruction plan adopted in the summit’s final statement and call for ensuring all necessary resources for its success," the group said. The Islamist militant group further expressed support for "the formation of the Community Support Committee to oversee relief efforts, reconstruction and governance in Gaza."An Israeli government statement said the Arab League's plan ultimately "fails to address the realities of the situation following October 7th, 2023, remaining rooted in outdated perspectives." It also blasted the Arab body for failing to condemn the Hamas Oct.7 terror attack in its statement announcing the plan.Instead, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said, "Now, with President Trump’s idea, there is an opportunity for the Gazans to have free choice based on their free will. This should be encouraged! Instead, Arab states have rejected this opportunity, without giving it a fair chance, and continue to level baseless accusations against Israel."

Israel’s Smotrich calls for ‘opening gates of hell’ on Gaza after halt of humanitarian aid – Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Sunday called for “opening the gates of hell” on the Gaza Strip after a government decision to halt humanitarian aid to the besieged Palestinian enclave, Anadolu news agency reported.The Israeli government stopped the entry of humanitarian aid into the war-torn territory on Sunday, just hours after the expiry of the first phase of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal.“The decision we made last night to completely halt humanitarian aid to Gaza until Hamas is destroyed or completely surrenders and all our hostages are returned is an important step in the right direction,” Smotrich, the leader of the Religious Zionism Party, said in a statement.Describing the move as the “threshold of the gates of hell,” he added: “Now we need to open those gates as quickly and lethally as possible on the cruel enemy, until absolute victory.”The first six-week phase of the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on 19 January, officially ended at midnight on Saturday. However, Israel has not agreed to move forward to the second phase of the deal to bring an end to the war in Gaza.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sought to extend the initial exchange phase to secure the release of as many Israeli captives as possible without offering anything in return or fulfilling the military and humanitarian obligations of the agreement.The Palestinian resistance group Hamas has refused to proceed under these conditions, insisting that Israel abide by the terms of the ceasefire and immediately start negotiations for the second phase, which includes a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a complete halt to the war.The ceasefire agreement has halted Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, which began 7 October 2023 and has since killed more than 48,380 victims, mostly women and children, and left the enclave in ruins.In November 2024, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.

Israel Preparing 'Hell Plan' for Gaza That Would Cut Electricity and Water - The Israeli government is preparing a “hell plan” for the Gaza Strip that would involve cutting all electricity and water to the territory on top of the blocking of food, fuel, and all other goods that was announced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli broadcaster Kan has reported. According to The Guardian, the Kan report said that the “hell plan” would also involve forcing Palestinians in northern Gaza to move to the south to prepare for a resumption of the bombing campaign. Other Israeli media reports say Israel is preparing for a full-scale resumption of its genocidal war if Hamas doesn’t accept Israel’s terms.Hamas is urging that Israel follow the initial deal, under which phase two of the ceasefire was supposed to start already and would have involved a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.After refusing to engage in talks on the second phase, Israel is trying to get Hamas to agree to an extension of the first phase ceasefire for another 42 days and release more hostages without an Israeli withdrawal, a proposal Israel says was put forward by President Trump’s Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff. Israel has received widespread condemnation for blocking all aid shipments into Gaza and collectively punishing the civilian population amid the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, but the US has expressed support for the war crime and signed off on billions in new military aid ahead of Netanyahu’s announcement. On Monday, Netanyahu warned things could get worse in Gaza, threatening that if Hamas doesn’t release Israeli hostages, there would be consequences “that you cannot imagine.” An analysis from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz acknowledged that Hamas was unlikely to agree to release more hostages without a long-term peace plan since the captives are the group’s only leverage over Israel.Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire since the truce went into effect on January 19, killing over 100 Palestinians in Gaza since then. Israel’s restrictions on aid before imposing the total siege and its refusal to engage in talks on phase two were also violations of the agreement. On Monday, at least two more Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire in the southern city of Rafah.

UN Food Agency Says It Has Under Two Weeks Worth of Food Supplies in Gaza Due to Israeli Blockade - The UN’s World Food Program (WFP) has warned that it only has enough food supplies in Gaza to keep public kitchens and bakeries open for less than two weeks after Israel blocked the entrance of all goods into the Palestinian territory, The Associated Press reported on Wednesday.Israel announced it was cutting off the delivery of food, fuel, medicine, and other supplies in Gaza on Sunday with full backing from the US. Israel is in violation of the ceasefire deal agreed to back in January and is attempting to pressure Hamas to agree to a new arrangement that won’t involve a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.The WFP said that on top of its low food stocks, it only has enough fuel for a few more weeks. Palestinians in Gaza said they immediately felt the effects of Israel’s siege on the entry of all goods as food prices began to climb.Before Sunday, Israel was still blocking the entry of mobile homes and sufficient tent supplies in Gaza, which it committed to allowing into the Strip as part of the ceasefire deal. Due to the Israeli restrictions and a cold spell, at least six Palestinian infants living in tents died of hypothermia in recent weeks.While the US has backed Israel’s siege, the collective punishment of Gaza’s civilian population amid the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has received widespread condemnation. Israel is also reportedly planning to cut all water and electricity to Gaza as part of a “hell plan” if Hamas doesn’t agree to its terms.

Israel's Ben Gvir Calls for Bombing of Humanitarian Aid in Gaza - Former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has called for Israel to bomb aid that entered Gaza before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut off deliveries and announced a full siege on Sunday.“The government must also order the bombing of the aid stockpiles that have accumulated in Gaza in enormous quantities during and before the ceasefire, alongside a complete halt of electricity and water,” Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party in the Knesset, wrote on X on Monday.Israeli media has reported that the Israeli government is considering also cutting electricity and water to Gaza as part of a “hell plan” to prepare for resuming the genocidal war on the territory. The US has backed Israel’s decision to impose the siege on aid entering Gaza and punish the Strip’s civilian population. Ben Gvir, who recently quit Netanyahu’s government over the ceasefire deal, said it was necessary to “bring about the starvation of Hamas terrorists before resuming combat, so that we can later crush them with ease.”Ben Gvir is an outspoken proponent of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the establishment of Jewish settlements in the territory. He has welcomed President Trump’s calls for the expulsion of Palestinians and has said that if the plan is implemented, his party could rejoin the government.Israel has broken the original hostage and ceasefire deal that it agreed to and is now calling on Hamas to accept a last-minute proposal to extend the first phase of the ceasefire. Under the initial deal, Israel committed to withdrawing from Gaza after the end of the first phase but has refused to do so.Israel has also refused to enter negotiations on implementing the second phase of the deal, which was supposed to involve a commitment to a permanent ceasefire. For their part, Hamas is calling for a full implementation of the original deal.

Macron In Anti-Russia Rant Says France Considering Expanding Nuclear Umbrella To Europe -- In the opening six months of the Ukraine-Russia war, France's President Emmanuel Macron came under fire in Europe for being one of the few major political leaders to hold regular diplomatic calls with Putin in an effort to solve the conflict and avoid further bloodshed in Eastern Europe.Now he feels he has to go full hawk in response to US President Trump, as on Wednesday in a nationally televised address he claimed Putin is now threatening all of Europe and has declared, dubiously, that Russian aggression "knows no borders.""We are entering a new era," he told his fellow countrymen in the address. "If a country can invade its neighbour in Europe and go unpunished, nobody can be sure of anything." That's when he asserted: "Beyond Ukraine, the Russian threat is real - it affects the European countries."Macron pulled out all the stops, and appears to be making himself into the European version of Russia's Medvedev, going maximal no limits jingoism. "President Putin is violating our borders to assassinate opponents, manipulate elections," he claimed in the remarks."We need to prepare," the French president said, amid a broader European push to 'fill the gap' in the wake of President Trump suspending all US arms shipments to Kiev, as well as intelligence-sharing. On Sunday during a London security conference of European leaders, UK PM Kier Starmer presented a plan of up to 30,000 UK peacekeeping troops for Ukraine, supported by France."I want to believe that the US will stand by our side, but we have to be ready for that not to be the case," Macron said in reference to shifting Washington policy.And Macron then claimed, "France has to recognize its special status - we have the most efficient, effective army in Europe," adding thatFrance has nuclear weapons to provide to the broader Western alliance if called upon.Addressing where funds for a new European defense without US backing might originate, he explained "These are new investments which will allow us to mobilize private financing and public financing without increases in tax" - also as German parties agreed this week to a historic debt overhaul to revamp military and economy.